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Monday, February 7, 2011

Fiddling with Rockhopper spread bets

Took some profit on my March spread bets on Rockhopper (RKH) and bought some September positions instead following today's 3% rise. Though things look interesting for the current well 14/10-3, the next appraisal well looks to have a significantly higher probability of success so better to have a longer term outlook to make money. Lots and lots of rumours.....some respected posters on the bulletin boards sound convinced its a strike, but you never know in with this exploration game. But with say a 20% downside on a duster, and a 100% upside on a moderate find, its a risk worth taking. That's where the Desire Petroleum gamblers went wrong, it was always a binary bet on success or failure. With Rockhopper, Sea Lion and £200 million cash in the bank following the fund raising changes the game to make it a moderate risk rather than throwing a "dart at a board" and hoping. I hope Sam Moody puts us out our misery, just think of the impact on U.K.'s GDP with all those investors glued to their screens from 8am to 4.30pm!!

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