Trades and observations from a British contrarian stock investor

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Thursday, February 17, 2011

Warren Buffett's tips for investment success

As an avid Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway follower, I try to remember his investment advice which has served him well. If readers are wondering why I took the decision to top up on Rockhopper (despite its relatively high risk profile) and sell some Xcite (despite my liking of the company and its excellent prospects), please see points 1 "stay liquid", point 2 "buy when everyone else is selling",  point 7 "defense beats offense" below. 

As another of my investment heroes Jim Cramer also says, "diversify, diversify, diversify". I am failing badly here, too many oil and gas stocks and too much in Xcite Energy. But I have known this for some time, and hence taking exit points when they arise on Xcite. Though I am in loss positions on both Rockhopper and Bowleven  (though made some profits on both in earlier sales in 2011), I won't be selling these at a loss. The fundamentals still justify an investment on a risk versus reward basis. Lets not forget that Buffett was buying preferred shares in Goldman Sachs in 2009 when everyone else on Wall Street wouldn't touch the sector and for his risk he got an 8% coupon! This is the contrarian style of investing that I favour....and sometimes its damned hard being a Contrarian when the momentum is the other way.

Extract from March 2010 post (http://contrarianinvestoruk.blogspot.com/2010/03/warrne-buffets-berkshire-hathaway-shows.html).

Buffet’s advice for investment success is :
Stay liquid. "We will never become dependent on the kindness of strangers," he wrote. "We will always arrange our affairs so that any requirements for cash we may conceivably have will be dwarfed by our own liquidity. Moreover, that liquidity will be constantly refreshed by a gusher of earnings from our many and diverse businesses."
Buy when everyone else is selling. "We've put a lot of money to work during the chaos of the last two years. It's been an ideal period for investors: A climate of fear is their best friend ... Big opportunities come infrequently. When it's raining gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble."
Don't buy when everyone else is buying. "Those who invest only when commentators are upbeat end up paying a heavy price for meaningless reassurance," Mr. Buffett wrote. The obvious corollary is to be patient. You can only buy when everyone else is selling if you have held your fire when everyone was buying.
Value, value, value. "In the end, what counts in investing is what you pay for a business-through the purchase of a small piece of it in the stock market-and what that business earns in the succeeding decade or two."
Don't get suckered by big growth stories. Mr. Buffett reminded investors that he and Berkshire Vice Chairman Charlie Munger "avoid businesses whose futures we can't evaluate, no matter how exciting their products may be.". Most investors who bet on the auto industry in 1910, planes in 1930 or TV makers in 1950 ended up losing their shirts, even though the products really did change the world. "Dramatic growth" doesn't always lead to high profit margins and returns on capital. China, anyone?
Understand what you own. "Investors who buy and sell based upon media or analyst commentary are not for us," Mr. Buffett wrote.
Defense beats offense. "Though we have lagged the S&P in some years that were positive for the market, we have consistently done better than the S&P in the eleven years during which it delivered negative results. In other words, our defense has been better than our offense, and that's likely to continue." All timely advice from Mr. Buffett for turbulent times.
(original source: marketwatch.com)

Derisked holding in Xcite Energy

The word in the City is that the Xcite's CPR is due any day and its positive. No need to re do the flow test that's for certain. The directors aren't so stupid to sign for the Rowan Norway rig with that sort of scenario.
But the rumours of a placing to accompany this news is building. Somewhere in 350p region seems to be consensus, but i hear talk of less. I sold a little more on the spike up this morning, to diversify the portfolio more. Still love the Xcite story but no point taking a big hit. The institutions aren't handing out cash like they were and want a big discount. The number of commodity flotations pulled in the last 2 weeks underscores the weakness in the market for new listings and placings. I am hoping that the Bentley Alliance route is used rather than institional money but details are vague here. I'm taking a cautious approach and this may be nothing more than a "storm in a teacup". 

Finally some common sense on Rockhopper

I was talking to a guy yesterday who knows one of the brokers that did the last Rockhopper placing and he was saying that 14/10-3 was a duster. Now quite rightly I said actually there was live oil and it was right at the northern lobe 8km (5 miles) from sea lion so the COS was always going to be on the low side. To say it was duster was wrong, wrong, wrong. Just too small to be commercial on a standalone basis but it does add to the Sealion recoverables. If a broker was getting it wrong, what does it say!!??
Fortunately the offshore magazine article (link below) on Rockhopper puts things nicely into context that 14-10/3 was a discovery, but small. 14/10-4, the next appraisal well much closer to the Sealion discovery has much better chances of a good hydrocarbon show. When it went below 260p this morning it was crazily cheap and I had to buy more. Have far to many, but sometimes in life there are risks, and there are educated risks. This is the latter, a no brained, with enough cash for 7 more wells. It's up 5 percent now so the markets have now decided the madness must end.

http://www.offshore-mag.com/index/article-display/2367306901/articles/offshore/drilling-completion/latin-america/20110/February/sea-lion_delivers.html