FIVE U.K. STOCKS WITH POTENTIAL FOR SHORTING

Contrarian Investor UK have been looking for stocks on the U.K. market which look overvalued and are candidates for a shorting strategy and here is my top 5 watch list. The FTSE All share is now up nearly 10% in the last month and 53% for the last 12 months and has tracked the move upwards on the U.S. Dow and S&P 500 (the S&P is up 10.5% in the last month). The strength in the overall market and generally bullish tone makes picking some overbought shares a tempting proposition as I feel that there is scope for a set back, albeit minor, in the next few weeks. Contrarian Investor UK uses Contracts for Difference (CFDs) through Igmarkets to enable stocks to be shorted i.e. with a hope that the price of a stock will go down in the future. However, spread betting using platforms such as IG index is also another easy potential online platform which allows buying as well as selling of individual shares and indices.

1. SSL International (SSL)
At £7.75 (52 week range £4.26- £7.89), health and personal care company, SSL trades on a price/earnings of 24 (based on earnings to year end March 2010) and a forward p/e for 2011 of 19 (based on earning of 40p per share in 2011). Garry Watts, its chief executive, has set a goal of increasing its earnings per share by 50pc over the three years to March 2012.

SSL's share price has been premium priced for years because of persistent rumours that Reckitt Benckiser will acquire the company to get its hands on its Durex and Scholl brands. But Reckitt's CEO Bart Becht is known for his prudence when its comes to acquisitions. Although Reckitt's paid a full price for both the Boots Healthcare International and Adams Therapeutics businesses, a takover of SSL for £9-10 would be difficult to justify given 1)it is unlikely that RB could accelerate the growth of SSL power brands too much faster given SSL has done a good job in delivering strong growth over the last 5 years 2) there is a portfolio of second line brands which were acquired during the 1990's particularly in Over the Counter (OTC) medicines which add significant complexity to the business and limited earnings e.g. Meltus, Cuprofen. Though these could be sold on, why pay a premium price for these brands? 3) SSL's organisation is relatively lean and therefore unlike the Boots acquisition, cost saving measures would not come as easily.

SSL has been busy beefing up its East European presence and now has strong growth prospects in Russia and other markets. It increased its presence in the Russian condom market by raising its stake in its BLBV joint venture in February. The company now generates about 85pc of its revenues from outside the UK. However, there are still significant risks in these markets as economic growth is still muted. The share price does not have the benefit of a good dividend, currently SSL yields 1.3%.

Although SSL's management has been doing a lot of the rights things over the last 5 years e.g. focusing growth on brands like Durex, emerging markets expansion, the high expectations for earnings growth in 2011 and 2011 and takeover rumours which justify the premium rating can easily fall apart if there is a glitch in any of its key markets. Investor's Chronicle featured SSL as a sell this week, and I agree with their assessment.

2. Reckitt Benckiser Group (RB.)
I have covered my reservations about healthcare and household company, Reckitt on a previous Contrarian Investor UK article published on Sunday 14th February (http://contrarianinvestoruk.blogspot.com/2010/02/reckitt-benckiser-certainly-not-good.html). At £35.11 (52 week range £24.96-35.45), the p/e is relatively undemanding at 18 and has a 2.9% dividend yield but my key concern remains the earnings impact of a generic competitor to opoid abuse drug, Subuxone in the U.S.. Suboxone accounts for 18% of group operating profits and around 10 percent of group profits. In the U.S. the drug accounts for half of the pharmaceutical divisions earnings and the North American operation represents two-thirds of total pharma sales.

3. ARM Holdings (ARM)
Chip designer, ARM (ARM or NASDAQ ARMH) currently trades at £2.27 (52 week range £0.98-2.32), rising from £1.95 over the last month alone as rumours have swirled around that Qualcomm (QCOM) is considering a bid. The company trades on a demanding 2010 p/e of 32.7 and 2011 of 27.5 as the company is seen to be geared to the huge growth in smart phone demand. The Cambridge-based firm had at least one of its chips in 90pc of all smartphones sold last year.

But directors have recently been selling the stock. For example, Tudor Brown (Chief Technical Officer and one of the founders) sold over £1 million of stock on March 9th. On March 11, RBS downgraded the stock despite the positive outllook for semiconductor stocks on valuation grounds and the Qualcomm rumours seem unlikely given competition concerns and a negative reaction from mobile manufacturers. Despite the positive fundamentals of the business, the share price seems to have gone a little over board and ARM therefore represents a good short at anything close to £2.30.

4. Rightmove 
Online estate agency, Rightmove (RMV) has had a tremendous share price move, rising from a low of £2.25 in March 2009 to its current £6.58, a rise of nearly 300% and not far from its 52 week high of £6.77. A renewed positive sentiment in the U.K. housing market has helped lift the shares and driven revenues back up as properties come onto the market for sale and hence Estate agents to use Rightmove as an advertising vehicle. It trades on a forward p/e of 19.7 and yields about 2%. Underlying operating profit for the 12 months to 31 December rose 2% to £41.9m on revenue down 6% to £69.4m. Pre-tax profit fell 1% to £37.8m from £38.2m.
Revenues for the second half of 2009 were 7% higher than in the first half and, by the end of 2009, monthly revenues had moved back toward their pre-crash peak. Costs were slashed by 17% to £27.5m as the company cut 16% of its admin staff during 2009. Broker Numis has upgraded full-year 2010 profit estimate to £52m from £50m and 2011 forecasts rise to £60m from £55m. Giving a 2011 forward p/e of around 16.

Of course these earnings estimates are dependent on a continued turn around in the U.K. housing market.The number of first-time buyers who expect to enter the housing market in 2010 has declined, which is concerning. The company's Q1 2010 Consumer Confidence Survey, which measures the public's property market views, revealed that the number of projected first-time buyers for the 12 months ahead has dropped for the third consecutive quarter. Only 26% of those who expect to buy in the next 12 months will be first-time buyers, a drop from 28% in Q4 2009 and 31% in Q3 2009. 

5. Astra Zeneca (AZN)
I have written about my negative stance on Astra Zeneca back in January (http://contrarianinvestoruk.blogspot.com/2010/01/astra-zeneca-azn-cheap-or-not.html) and my thoughts have not turned for the better after the failure of Recentin (cediranib) to reach its primary end point in the Horizon III clinical trial. Eight patents on drugs that represent 60 percent of Astra Zeneca's current sales are due to expire by 2016 and drugs like Recentin are desperately needed to fill the whole left by major patent losses on drugs such as Crestor and Pulmicort. Altough Astra trades on a forward p/e of only 7 and has a 5% dividend yield, patent expiries make earnings in 2011 and beyond hazy and the company has said as much. Heavyweight cost cutting is being done to try and stem the tide but success in the laboratory is needed and unfortunately Astra has been plagued by clinical trial failures on promising new molecules over the last 10 years. If AZN moves much beyond £30 (currently £29.22), this represents a good short opportunity and a move back towards its highs of £31 would make it an excellent shorting trade.