Sunday, January 9, 2011
Angel Mining Black Angel Mine just featured on BBC2 "Arctic with Bruce Parry"
Just been watching BBC 2's "Artic with Bruce Parry". Brucy spent some time in the summer of 2010 with Tim Daffern (resigned to be CEO of gold miner Hambledon Mining (HMB) in September 2010) at the Black Angel mine owned by Angel Mining (ANGM) in the Disko bay area of Greenland. Tim confirms that there are reserves of $1 billion of lead and zinc with1000 pillars of $1.5 million dollar zinc seams. The programme shows the building of the cable car entrance to the mine. Interesting stuff!
I hate it when the markets are closed
I'm waiting for the markets to reopen tomorrow with great anticipation with the news due from Xcite Energy and Bowleven. Even if RNS's aren't forthcoming on Monday, then its only a matter of time.
Things are nicely primed for positive share price action. I took the decision to close some of my CFD (contracts for difference) positions on Friday and open spread bets on IG INDEX instead since this strategy means any large move up in Xcite will mean no capital gains tax liability. CGT is now 28% for higher rate tax payers and I don't fancy handing over a third of my Xcite gains to the Inland Revenue. On September 2011 spread bet positions the premium was pretty reasonable late on in the week for Xcite. Annoying though that the deposit requirements on both Xcite and Bowleven are high given their AIM status.
A lesson I've learnt with both CFD and spread bet trading is to leave plenty of deposit in your account to avoid any problems if things go wrong and they start closing positions for you because of margin calls. Before the 2008 stock market falls, they used to call you to tell you to deposit more funds. Now they just close them without informing you. I can imagine there were a lot Rockhopper investors caught out when the "flash crash" happened last year and there margin was exhausted when the price collapsed only to be in utter dismay when the share price recovered. This is why I do not use stop losses on AIM stocks, the volatility can be so enormous that you can be caught out whilst you're in a meeting or getting a coffee! Juggling things to maximise your position but leaving yourself some security in case things go wrong can be a tricky balance.
Things are nicely primed for positive share price action. I took the decision to close some of my CFD (contracts for difference) positions on Friday and open spread bets on IG INDEX instead since this strategy means any large move up in Xcite will mean no capital gains tax liability. CGT is now 28% for higher rate tax payers and I don't fancy handing over a third of my Xcite gains to the Inland Revenue. On September 2011 spread bet positions the premium was pretty reasonable late on in the week for Xcite. Annoying though that the deposit requirements on both Xcite and Bowleven are high given their AIM status.
A lesson I've learnt with both CFD and spread bet trading is to leave plenty of deposit in your account to avoid any problems if things go wrong and they start closing positions for you because of margin calls. Before the 2008 stock market falls, they used to call you to tell you to deposit more funds. Now they just close them without informing you. I can imagine there were a lot Rockhopper investors caught out when the "flash crash" happened last year and there margin was exhausted when the price collapsed only to be in utter dismay when the share price recovered. This is why I do not use stop losses on AIM stocks, the volatility can be so enormous that you can be caught out whilst you're in a meeting or getting a coffee! Juggling things to maximise your position but leaving yourself some security in case things go wrong can be a tricky balance.
U.S. earnings season kicks off on Monday
Aluminium producer Alcoa (aa.) kicks off the Q4 U.S. earning season next week and expectations are high with most analysts pencilling in average S&P 500 earnings growth of 30% plus. So the markets should be particularly dynamic next week on both sides of the Atlantic. It seems unlikely that companies will miss their earnings from 2010 and therefore expect some positive momentum in the DOW and S&P 500 which will spill over to Europe.
There is so much to worry about though, the rise in commodity prices will inevitably feed back into higher inflation so interest rates will have to start rising eventually. The combination of rising interest rates and stagnating growth isn't a particularly enticing concept to look forward to. I reiterate my point again that 2011 is about stock picking and trading not buying and holding.
There is so much to worry about though, the rise in commodity prices will inevitably feed back into higher inflation so interest rates will have to start rising eventually. The combination of rising interest rates and stagnating growth isn't a particularly enticing concept to look forward to. I reiterate my point again that 2011 is about stock picking and trading not buying and holding.
Saturday, January 8, 2011
Portfolio review of the week - 8th January 2011
My first week after returning to writing the Contrarian Investor UK blog has been a good one. It was a difficult decision to restart posting given the constraints on my time but I have been encouraged firstly by the portfolio performance, by the significant traffic coming to the site and some of the positive comments left by readers. As with any blog, you sometimes hit the wall of despair, but for now I will persevere with posts and see how the thing goes.
I have thrown my usual rules of portfolio diversification out of the window at the moment with my substantial holding in North Sea oil company Xcite Energy (XEL). Whilst being reckless in some respects, I have not found such a compelling risk/reward ratio on an AIM stock for a very long time and in particular the share price weakness following the excellent flow test results for the Bentley field was one of those rare"once in a lifetime" investing opportunities. Despite being massively de-risked at the point that Xcite announced a flow test of 2900 barrels per day i.e. of field commerciality, I could pick up shares for around 350p, only 20-30 p more than when the shares had a huge risk of failure still hanging over them as investors waited to see if the company could actually extract the 160 million barrels of oil plus from the field. The market makers had a field day, as private investors piled out of Xcite in the New Year in to other stocks. I had not imagined that I would be able to buy Xcite for less than 400p following flow test results this good, but sometimes the markets aren't logical and that's when easy money can be made.
So next week will be an exciting week for Xcite. The oilbarrel.com conference next Thusday the 13th and the deadline for the signing of the rig on the 15th make me believe that it is very likely that we will see at least 2 RNS's - 1) an updated CPR (competent persons report) to upgrade the Bentley field oil reserves 2) signing of the rig contract with a timeline for the start of field commercialisation. The board of directors have been expert in managing the flow of information to investors and I'm sure they won't less us down now. The share price rebound yesterday and Thursday seems to illustrate that I am not alone in expecting some good news update early next week.
Of course we're already seeing rumours swirling of Statoil bids etc. I'm sceptical about these so early in the game but I guess you never know. Perhaps someone is thinking in an M&A department somewhere that they can pick up Bentley on the cheap.
Greenland gold miner, Angel Mining (ANGM) also had a strong week. With the share price close to breaking 7p, up from 5.5p, for most of it. I am awaiting the BBC documentary about Greenland on Sunday night with interest which features their Black Angel zinc mine. Though my holding is far less large than Xcite, I am confident that as the year progresses the share price will continue to move up albeit with some volatility. This is the way with these sub 10p AIM stocks.
Finally, as I posted yesterday, I have made a speculative investment in Cameroon oil explorer Bowleven (BLVN) as further results from its Sapele 1 well are imminent. Though there is a risk in this investment if the company update is disappointing the downside risk is somewhat minimised by the RNS's already released in November about the size of the existing discovery. The potential upside could be massive, so a cheeky spread bet was placed and though I have less confidence than Xcite the risk/reward ratio looks good.
Once Xcite reaches my target price I will look to move funds into other stocks on my watch list assuming the market corrects enough for me to take advantage of any compelling valuations. However, for now I wait for the arrival of next week with great anticipation with all the potential news flow from all the companies in the Contrarian Investor UK portfolio. Keeping my fingers crossed for a champagne week to ease the winter blues!
I have thrown my usual rules of portfolio diversification out of the window at the moment with my substantial holding in North Sea oil company Xcite Energy (XEL). Whilst being reckless in some respects, I have not found such a compelling risk/reward ratio on an AIM stock for a very long time and in particular the share price weakness following the excellent flow test results for the Bentley field was one of those rare"once in a lifetime" investing opportunities. Despite being massively de-risked at the point that Xcite announced a flow test of 2900 barrels per day i.e. of field commerciality, I could pick up shares for around 350p, only 20-30 p more than when the shares had a huge risk of failure still hanging over them as investors waited to see if the company could actually extract the 160 million barrels of oil plus from the field. The market makers had a field day, as private investors piled out of Xcite in the New Year in to other stocks. I had not imagined that I would be able to buy Xcite for less than 400p following flow test results this good, but sometimes the markets aren't logical and that's when easy money can be made.
So next week will be an exciting week for Xcite. The oilbarrel.com conference next Thusday the 13th and the deadline for the signing of the rig on the 15th make me believe that it is very likely that we will see at least 2 RNS's - 1) an updated CPR (competent persons report) to upgrade the Bentley field oil reserves 2) signing of the rig contract with a timeline for the start of field commercialisation. The board of directors have been expert in managing the flow of information to investors and I'm sure they won't less us down now. The share price rebound yesterday and Thursday seems to illustrate that I am not alone in expecting some good news update early next week.
Of course we're already seeing rumours swirling of Statoil bids etc. I'm sceptical about these so early in the game but I guess you never know. Perhaps someone is thinking in an M&A department somewhere that they can pick up Bentley on the cheap.
Greenland gold miner, Angel Mining (ANGM) also had a strong week. With the share price close to breaking 7p, up from 5.5p, for most of it. I am awaiting the BBC documentary about Greenland on Sunday night with interest which features their Black Angel zinc mine. Though my holding is far less large than Xcite, I am confident that as the year progresses the share price will continue to move up albeit with some volatility. This is the way with these sub 10p AIM stocks.
Finally, as I posted yesterday, I have made a speculative investment in Cameroon oil explorer Bowleven (BLVN) as further results from its Sapele 1 well are imminent. Though there is a risk in this investment if the company update is disappointing the downside risk is somewhat minimised by the RNS's already released in November about the size of the existing discovery. The potential upside could be massive, so a cheeky spread bet was placed and though I have less confidence than Xcite the risk/reward ratio looks good.
Once Xcite reaches my target price I will look to move funds into other stocks on my watch list assuming the market corrects enough for me to take advantage of any compelling valuations. However, for now I wait for the arrival of next week with great anticipation with all the potential news flow from all the companies in the Contrarian Investor UK portfolio. Keeping my fingers crossed for a champagne week to ease the winter blues!
Friday, January 7, 2011
Potentially transformational news matter of days away for Bowleven
I have been trading in and out of AIM listed, Cameroon focused oil explorer
Bowleven (BLVN) for the last 6 weeks or so following their Sapele-1 well
discovery in early November. I am always nervous to trade a stock prior to
a major RNS announcement relating to further potential oil discoveries
since there can be opportunities to buy the share after the news with a lot
less risk, assuming it is positive. Just look at Xcite Energy, you could
have bought it for the same price as the pre flow test result without all
the stress.
However, I could not resist a little “punt” on Bowleven today with an RNS
likely on the high potential deeper Cretaceous target. The initial
discoveries in November were the Lower Omicron, which showed light oil and
gas condensate in a moderate quality reservoir but more important was the
Deep Omicron which encountered high quality sands. Initial logging has
shown 31-43 metres of net pay at the point of the last major RNS on 25th
November at a depth of 3,483 metres. Kevin Hart, Chief Exec, has talked of
a potentially transformational discovery.The company announced that it
would drill to a depth of 4,450 metres to test the deeper Cretaceous within
the Douala basin. A process taking 20-30 days, making the drilling process
complete around Christmas Day 2010.
Now we are in early January it is likely that the logging and appraisal
process are taking place which means an update RNS is probably due today or
early next week.
Bowleven (BLVN) for the last 6 weeks or so following their Sapele-1 well
discovery in early November. I am always nervous to trade a stock prior to
a major RNS announcement relating to further potential oil discoveries
since there can be opportunities to buy the share after the news with a lot
less risk, assuming it is positive. Just look at Xcite Energy, you could
have bought it for the same price as the pre flow test result without all
the stress.
However, I could not resist a little “punt” on Bowleven today with an RNS
likely on the high potential deeper Cretaceous target. The initial
discoveries in November were the Lower Omicron, which showed light oil and
gas condensate in a moderate quality reservoir but more important was the
Deep Omicron which encountered high quality sands. Initial logging has
shown 31-43 metres of net pay at the point of the last major RNS on 25th
November at a depth of 3,483 metres. Kevin Hart, Chief Exec, has talked of
a potentially transformational discovery.The company announced that it
would drill to a depth of 4,450 metres to test the deeper Cretaceous within
the Douala basin. A process taking 20-30 days, making the drilling process
complete around Christmas Day 2010.
Now we are in early January it is likely that the logging and appraisal
process are taking place which means an update RNS is probably due today or
early next week.
Thursday, January 6, 2011
Optimism continues on US jobs data
Wall Street notched up its 5th straight day of gains last night as more evidence emerged that the economic recovery was on track emerged from better than expected jobs and service sector data. The Dow Jones Industrials ended at 11,723. Investors are watching and waiting for Friday’s U.S. non-farm payroll numbers to confirm the strength of the economic rebound. If these figures exceed consensus then expect a very strong day on the markets.
In the U.K., the FTSE 100 is currently up 27 to 6,071 despite some poor retail trading figures from the likes of Mothercare.
As I mentioned on a previous post, when sentiment is this strong, I tend to stay on the sidelines. As Warren Buffett once said “We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful.”. There is a little too much greed in the air for my liking. I know a correction will come, it might be days or weeks, but this is the time I will be buying, not now. Sure opportunities will be missed on these momentum trades, but I know I can sleep at night buying on dips rather than
on peaks. When the Sunday newspapers are telling everyone to get on the equity bandwagon my advice is to be cautious.
As I mentioned on a previous post, when sentiment is this strong, I tend to stay on the sidelines. As Warren Buffett once said “We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful.”. There is a little too much greed in the air for my liking. I know a correction will come, it might be days or weeks, but this is the time I will be buying, not now. Sure opportunities will be missed on these momentum trades, but I know I can sleep at night buying on dips rather than
on peaks. When the Sunday newspapers are telling everyone to get on the equity bandwagon my advice is to be cautious.
Xcite valuation potential from LSE site
I just had to post Thales 1 excellent post from this morning on LSE.co.uk.
referring to Xcite's potential valuation. Yet again underscores the bargain
pricing of this share and the excellent upside.
"2Byron's excellent post yesterday got me thinking. I went back to the RPS
energy N151-101 report on Xcite's website from Feb 2009. Page 11 shows
success case NPV. The upside case had an NPV of $1,535m. This is more or
less £1bn sterling, so divided by 158m shares, the sp should now be £6.30,
as the flow test has confirmed commerciality. Updating the CPR should
however amend some of the assumptions in that table on page 11 - and this
is what the company must be doing now. The first assumption to change is
CAPEX. Gramacho posted (on iii) a readout of a conversation he'd had with
XEL mgt during the delays to the flow test. One thing they said was that
reservoir properties were significantly better than expected (as RNS
confirmed) and this meant they would not have to drill so many main holes,
as they could run more horizontal side drills from each vertical
penetration (I think that's what they meant). So lets assume that CAPEX can
be reduced by 10% to $2.4bn. Can't assume that OPEX will change, but price
per barrel can be moved to $90. I will leave the discount at 15% to be
ultra cautious, but it seems as if this could be reduced. Recovedrable
resources will be increased - the oil column was much higher than expected
- by over 50% as 2Byron points out. But lets be ultra conservative again,
and increase the original upside case of 166mmbbls by 20% - giving
200mmbbls. Filed life and NPV10 calculations I will leave as they were -
super cautious. Run the figures, and you get 90*200=18000, less 15%
discount gives 15300, less CAPEX and OPEX gives 10671. Apply the same NPV
factor as in the Feb 09 report and you get NPV $2.560bn. Convert to
sterling gives NPV £1.662bn, divided by 158m shares gives an sp post CPR of
£10.51. And this values the east Bentley prospects, Jurassic, and new block
allocations at zero. This is using the same valuation model the company has
already used and made public - the same one that Arbuthnot seem to be
using, and making ultra cautious assumptions using the fresh info from the
drilling and flow test. So, IMO, the sp should be £6 now, pre CPR, and
heading over £10 following. Things that will help is bokking some part to
reserves so that they are on balance sheet, and aiming to get a full market
listing - IMO Xcite should be moving off AIM now to become a mainstream
company. I would very much hope that they may give indications at the Oil
Barrel conference next week. Finally, with the company currently trading at
such a significant discount to NAV the prospect of a speculative bid for
the company has to be pretty high - I am sure Statoil for instance have run
these figures too - they look most attractive."
Wednesday, January 5, 2011
For those suffering from Xcite Energy stress, a little reassurance
Just in case any Xcite Energy holders out there are having sleepless nights worrying about the share price drop over the last couple of days, just a reminder that:
1. They have at least 160 million barrels of oil in the North Sea Bentley field (no politics, minimal transport issues, no ownership problems)
2. "the reservoir properties to be above the upper end of modelled expectations." Therefore there is a more than reasonable chance of an upgrade in potential reserves - possibly as much as 250 to 300 million barrels with a bit of luck. The CPR (Competent Persons Report) is expected any day. There is an Oilbarrel.com presentation by the company on the 13th January, I personally expect news before then.
3. Flow rate 2900 barrels per day, well above commercial viability range of c. 1200 barrels. Plus added reassurance from this weeks RNS, "In addition to the successful well flow test announced on 21 December 2010, high quality downhole pressure, temperature and sample data has been safely recovered following a 36 hour shut in and build up period after the flow test.'"
4. Estimated production of 15,000 barrels per day in 2011, 60,000 barrels per day 2013 + i.e. massive, stable cash flow for at least 15 years.
5. Bentley Alliance ensures that means to bring oil to market are in place with strong partners e.g. B.P.
6. £60 million Standby Equity Distribution Agreement (SEDA) with YA Global Master SPV Ltd ("Yorkville") to start field development and complete rig hire i.e. no funding issues. SEDA means shares have to be held for 4 months by Yorkville and are not discounted.
7. Oil price likely to be $80-100 range for the foreseeable future (heavy oil from Bentley 12% discount)
8. $100 million cost to bring field into production, but the company estimates only 50% of this is equity.
9. Broker estimates based on existing oil in place estimate of £6. Net present value calculations based on upside scenario indicate £10-15 share price range.
1. They have at least 160 million barrels of oil in the North Sea Bentley field (no politics, minimal transport issues, no ownership problems)
2. "the reservoir properties to be above the upper end of modelled expectations." Therefore there is a more than reasonable chance of an upgrade in potential reserves - possibly as much as 250 to 300 million barrels with a bit of luck. The CPR (Competent Persons Report) is expected any day. There is an Oilbarrel.com presentation by the company on the 13th January, I personally expect news before then.
3. Flow rate 2900 barrels per day, well above commercial viability range of c. 1200 barrels. Plus added reassurance from this weeks RNS, "In addition to the successful well flow test announced on 21 December 2010, high quality downhole pressure, temperature and sample data has been safely recovered following a 36 hour shut in and build up period after the flow test.'"
4. Estimated production of 15,000 barrels per day in 2011, 60,000 barrels per day 2013 + i.e. massive, stable cash flow for at least 15 years.
5. Bentley Alliance ensures that means to bring oil to market are in place with strong partners e.g. B.P.
6. £60 million Standby Equity Distribution Agreement (SEDA) with YA Global Master SPV Ltd ("Yorkville") to start field development and complete rig hire i.e. no funding issues. SEDA means shares have to be held for 4 months by Yorkville and are not discounted.
7. Oil price likely to be $80-100 range for the foreseeable future (heavy oil from Bentley 12% discount)
8. $100 million cost to bring field into production, but the company estimates only 50% of this is equity.
9. Broker estimates based on existing oil in place estimate of £6. Net present value calculations based on upside scenario indicate £10-15 share price range.
Just like Guinness, "GOOD THINGS WILL COME TO THOSE WHO WAIT". Ignore the derampers and shorters on the bulletin boards. Make your investment decisions based on facts.
Let me know if I've missed anything! Just bring on that CPR.
Tuesday, January 4, 2011
Angel Mining share price finally starts to move up
After a sluggish few weeks, Angel mining (ANGM) had its second day of 10% gains to finish at 6.5p. Despite news of the start of production at the process plant at the Nalunaq gold mine in Greenland in mid-December, the shares were struggling to make any headway as new equity was issued through the SEDA ( Standby Equity Distribution Agreement) which allowed Angel to access funds in return for the issue of new discounted shares to the SEDA provider YA Global masters SPV Ltd..
News of the first shipment of gold from the plant is expected this week. The directors expect the Company to produce approximately 65 ounces of gold per day and an annual production of approximately 25,000 ounces. The Company's forecast cash cost per ounce of gold at target production is approximately US$560 which it expects to achieve in Q1 2011. At target production and with an average gold price of US$1,300 per ounce, the Nalunaq mine should produce annualised revenues and free cash of approximately US$32.5 million and US$18.5 million respectively.
In addition to the Nalunaq gold plant, Angel own the Black Angel zinc/lead mine which will be developed from cash flows from gold production. Lots of positive news to come from this company in 2011 after the setbacks and delays of 2009 & 2010.
News of the first shipment of gold from the plant is expected this week. The directors expect the Company to produce approximately 65 ounces of gold per day and an annual production of approximately 25,000 ounces. The Company's forecast cash cost per ounce of gold at target production is approximately US$560 which it expects to achieve in Q1 2011. At target production and with an average gold price of US$1,300 per ounce, the Nalunaq mine should produce annualised revenues and free cash of approximately US$32.5 million and US$18.5 million respectively.
In addition to the Nalunaq gold plant, Angel own the Black Angel zinc/lead mine which will be developed from cash flows from gold production. Lots of positive news to come from this company in 2011 after the setbacks and delays of 2009 & 2010.
Xcite Energy - 40th Oil Barrel conference presentation
The Oil Barrel Conference site (http://www.oilbarrel.com/oilbarrel_forums.html) is showing that Xcite are due to present at the 40th conference on 13th January. Now I wonder whether they plan to turn up with nothing new to say or perhaps they'll be keen to talk about the upgraded and confirmed reserves at Bentley and confirmation of the drilling rig. Hmmm....I'm sure the derampers are right and Richard E Smith (or whoever presents) will just turn up to London for a cup of coffee and a cake!! - not
Nice try market makers with the 20p drop today! Some are gullible, but the smart money is staying put.
Nice try market makers with the 20p drop today! Some are gullible, but the smart money is staying put.
Xcite Energy - the madness of markets
I have realised how fickle the markets are today! So with an upward revision of Bentley oil reserves and signing of a production rig due any day, I am seeing that Xcite shares are currently down over 4% at 362p. I presume some investors are piling out to buy into other stocks that have been tipped in the press over the weekend and no doubt the market makers are playing their usual games to fill their boots with cheap stock before the RNS's. I reiterate from today's RNS, "....with the intention to update the information in the February 2009 Competent Persons Report potentially enabling a reserves report to be issued in DUE COURSE" i.e. we will have an update in days not weeks! I guess patience is a virtue and some investors don't have it!
Comparing the Market caps of some oil stocks underscores my point:
Xcite Energy (160 mm barrels+) £579m
Desire Petroleum (0 barrels) £128m
Rockhopper (170 mm barrels) £965m
Keep the faith XEL investors and buy on weakness!
Xcite Energy (160 mm barrels+) £579m
Desire Petroleum (0 barrels) £128m
Rockhopper (170 mm barrels) £965m
Keep the faith XEL investors and buy on weakness!
Xcite Energy CPR (Competent Persons Report) imminent
Xcite announced this morning that the Bentley 9/3b-6z well had been successfully suspended for potential future use. "In addition to the successful well flow test announced on 21 December 2010, high quality downhole pressure, temperature and sample data has been safely recovered following a 36 hour shut in and build up period after the flow test.
Analysis and interpretation of this data will now commence, with the intention to update the information in the February 2009 Competent Persons Report potentially enabling a reserves report to be issued in due course."
In addition news was also released that the directors & other staff had been issued with additional share options priced at 370p and exercisable over the next 5 years.
The imminent release of the CPR (Competent Persons Report) is the key piece of news and it is reassuring that it will be available shortly with a potential substantial reserves upgrade. Should be a good day for Xcite shares today!
Analysis and interpretation of this data will now commence, with the intention to update the information in the February 2009 Competent Persons Report potentially enabling a reserves report to be issued in due course."
In addition news was also released that the directors & other staff had been issued with additional share options priced at 370p and exercisable over the next 5 years.
The imminent release of the CPR (Competent Persons Report) is the key piece of news and it is reassuring that it will be available shortly with a potential substantial reserves upgrade. Should be a good day for Xcite shares today!
Monday, January 3, 2011
Prediction for FTSE 100 and DOW Industrials 2011
Contrarian Investor UK predicts the FTSE 100 will end 2011 at 6550 and the Dow Jones Industrials will hit 13,000.
But I believe its going to be a very volatile year, suiting a trading style rather than buy and hold. On the plus side, continued ultra low interest rates and quantitative easing will continue to drive the U.S. earnings and hence the market in 2011. It is unlikely that the Federal Reserve will begin to tighten monetary policy by raising interest rates too aggressively during 2011 despite signs of rising inflation notably in commodities. One day the U.S. government may be forced to take action against its ballooning budget deficit and rising national debt, but this isn't on the agenda in 2011 or even 2012 with the next presidential election due in 2012. Although the U.K. government has decided to take action to reduce spending and raise taxes, across the Atlantic this is an alien concept for now given this strategy would be likely to be politically unpopular with mainstream America.
The weak U.S. dollar has helped drive impressive growth in gold, silver, oil, and industrial metals as well as agricultural products e.g. cotton during 2010. It is unlikely that the dollar will reverse its trend in 2011 but continued high demand from Asia (notably China) may begin to wain.
There is likely to be notable sell-offs during 2011 precipitated by several possible scenarios:
1. worries about euro zone debt (particularly Portugal and Spain). The U.S. budget deficit and lack of action to tackle it.
2. Chinese inflation and an increase in interest rates
3. A stagnant or declining property market, plus rising defaults
4. Poor unemployment numbers in the euro zone and U.S.
Therefore I will not be over committing myself too early in 2011. I will keep cash on the sidelines to take advantage of falls in the more speculative stocks on my watch list rather than piling in during January when sentiment is too positive. I would rather buy on a sell-off then when the market is red-hot and universally bullish. These are:
1. Xcite Energy (XEL) - North Sea oil (already hold)
2. Bowleven (BLVN) - Cameroon oil explorer
2. Nautical Petroleum (NPE) - North Sea oil
3. Coal of Africa (CZA) - South African coal miner
4. Angel Mining (ANGM) - Greenland Gold and Zinc (already hold)
5. Ithaca Energy (IAE) - North Sea oil
In addition to these AIM plays, I am also interested in Aviva, Shell, Reynolds, BAT, Imperial Tobacco as dividend stocks.
But I believe its going to be a very volatile year, suiting a trading style rather than buy and hold. On the plus side, continued ultra low interest rates and quantitative easing will continue to drive the U.S. earnings and hence the market in 2011. It is unlikely that the Federal Reserve will begin to tighten monetary policy by raising interest rates too aggressively during 2011 despite signs of rising inflation notably in commodities. One day the U.S. government may be forced to take action against its ballooning budget deficit and rising national debt, but this isn't on the agenda in 2011 or even 2012 with the next presidential election due in 2012. Although the U.K. government has decided to take action to reduce spending and raise taxes, across the Atlantic this is an alien concept for now given this strategy would be likely to be politically unpopular with mainstream America.
The weak U.S. dollar has helped drive impressive growth in gold, silver, oil, and industrial metals as well as agricultural products e.g. cotton during 2010. It is unlikely that the dollar will reverse its trend in 2011 but continued high demand from Asia (notably China) may begin to wain.
There is likely to be notable sell-offs during 2011 precipitated by several possible scenarios:
1. worries about euro zone debt (particularly Portugal and Spain). The U.S. budget deficit and lack of action to tackle it.
2. Chinese inflation and an increase in interest rates
3. A stagnant or declining property market, plus rising defaults
4. Poor unemployment numbers in the euro zone and U.S.
Therefore I will not be over committing myself too early in 2011. I will keep cash on the sidelines to take advantage of falls in the more speculative stocks on my watch list rather than piling in during January when sentiment is too positive. I would rather buy on a sell-off then when the market is red-hot and universally bullish. These are:
1. Xcite Energy (XEL) - North Sea oil (already hold)
2. Bowleven (BLVN) - Cameroon oil explorer
2. Nautical Petroleum (NPE) - North Sea oil
3. Coal of Africa (CZA) - South African coal miner
4. Angel Mining (ANGM) - Greenland Gold and Zinc (already hold)
5. Ithaca Energy (IAE) - North Sea oil
In addition to these AIM plays, I am also interested in Aviva, Shell, Reynolds, BAT, Imperial Tobacco as dividend stocks.
Sunday, January 2, 2011
Xcite Energy should prove a highly profitable investment in 2011
It has been several months since I have posted on the Contrarian Investor UK blog, partly due to new job commitments and lacklustre visitor numbers. However, I feel compelled to start afresh in 2011 and would appreciate readers comments on the blog. There is so much misinformation on the bulletin boards and private investors continue to be hungry for information.
To start 2011 I will make my first post on the North sea oil company, Xcite Energy (XEL), listed on UK AIM and the Canadian TSX (Toronto Stock Exchange). Xcite own a 100% working interest in the Bentley heavy oil field which it acquired in 2003, approximately 160km east of the Shetland Isles. In February 2009, RPS Energy published a Competent Persons Report (CPR) for block 9/3b, in which they assigned the highest category of Contingent Resources to the field with a probability of commercial success of 70% and Base Case resources of 122.5 MMbbls. Subsequent to the CPR, based on reprocessed 3D seismic, XER have shown the Bentley East feature to be part of the overall Bentley field and, therefore, now include a second drill centre to the south to access Bentley East and the southern areas of the field, thereby adding 40 MMbbls to the base case resources. The Bentley field, therefore, has most-likely (P50) resources of around 160 MMbbls, with a low to high range (broadly equivalent to P90 to P10) from 109 to 235 MMbbls, assuming conventional, cold flow recovery, utilising pumps to lift the oil. The big question for Xcite was, could they get the oil to flow out of the reservoir because it contains heavy, viscous oil. This oil attracts a price around 10% lower than standard Brent Crude and historically was difficult to extract. Bentley was previously owned by U.S. company Conoco Phillips, who drilled several times in the 1980's but failed to bring oil to surface.
Rather than adopt a traditional farm in model, Xcite has entered into a more innovative solution. A contractor based model called the "Bentley Alliance", whereby it works with several partners with particular experience. These partners are able to take a small equity stake to help fund development of the field. Estimates for production development are around $100 million which is likely to be 50% in the form of equity and 50% debt. The partners in the alliance are:
• BP - marketing of oil and $20m debt provider
• Transocean Drilling - rig provider for the 9/3b-R well and EPS
• ADTI - well management and drilling contractor alongside Transocean
• AMEC - engineering services for EPS & full field development
• Fugro – geotechnical services partner
I came into the Xcite party fairly late in the day, so missed the big move from 60p+, but starting building a large position prior to the Bentley Field Block 9/3b flow test during November. Its been quite a ride, as the share price oscillated into the 325p+ range then collapsed as low as 230p during early December, as the flow test was postponed due to poor weather in the North Sea then a faulty pipe to the tanker. Rumours circulated on iii.co.uk and advfn bulletin boards that the delay was due to a flow test failure. The market makers saw their opportunity and swung the price down heavily to trigger private investors stop losses and "doom and gloom" pervaded most posts. I had to laugh as random Twitter and "bloke in a pub" rumours were seen as proof of issues. So what did I do, I bought more Xcite based not on the rumour mill but on the fundamentals of xcite which looked very exciting!
The RNS from 8th November 2010 confirmed the potential of the Bentley field, "The Company is pleased to announce that the 9/3b-6 well on the Bentley field is progressing on plan, on schedule and has reached target depth for the second part of the planned work programme, the horizontal section of the well, 9/3b-6z.The horizontal section has reached the planned total depth at 7085 ft measured depth in the well section and has successfully tracked the top of the reservoir. This provides over1800 ft of gross reservoir section since reservoir entry point of 5261 ft measured depth. The reservoir in the 9/3b-6z well bore section was encountered at an estimated 3618 ft true vertical depth subsea, some 18ft higher than the pre-well prognosis of 3636 ft true vertical depth and thus giving more oil column. Petrophysical analysis is being undertaken and is expected to confirm close to 100% net to gross oil pay. The completion and testing of this horizontal section is expected by the end of November."
Finally on the 21 December 2010, XEL issued the RNS I was waiting for. "The Company announces that the flow test of the 9/3b-6z horizontal well on the Bentley field has been successfully completed.The flow rates achieved demonstrate both the commerciality of the Bentley field and the reservoir properties to be above the upper end of modelled expectations. Key flow test results were: 1) Total flow test of 36 hours including clean-up of 9 hours, with cumulative production to tote tanks of over 2,000 barrels. 2) Multi-rate flow tests were conducted, culminating in a final stabilised flow rate of 2,900 stock tank barrels of oil per day. Richard Smith, Chief Executive Officer of Xcite Energy, commented: "This is an outstanding outcome for the Xcite team and for the industry contractors to deliver this successful well test on Bentley. This flow test fully demonstrates the commercial potential of the Bentley field and the long-held belief that Xcite has maintained in this major North Sea asset. We now move on to the first stage production planned for 2011 with an excellent platform.""
Sure there was other AIM shares where the upside may be larger in 2011, but the key with Xcite is that we could see a share price of at least £5-6 in the next few months (up from its current £3.83) without the downside risk of a Bowleven or Range Resources. I read about Gulf Keystone etc. Would you rather buy into an asset in the North sea or Kurdistan, Iraq?! We know the oil is there and can be brought to the surface. I am somewhat over invested in Xcite and am nicely in profit but I am not selling one share until we see at least 500p, and I do not believe this is a pie in the sky target by any means. If we assume that the field is 200 million barrels and this is worth $10 a barrel after costs, then Xcite have a $2.0 billion asset. The current market capitalisation is £607 million or around $900 million, giving a 100% upside. Xcite would make a nice acquisition for a larger oil player. The company has announced a "poison pill" clause in the event of a takeover which allow existing investors to buy more shares at a discounted rate. Sit back and relax with Xcite, Contrarian Investor believes you won't be seeing a share price below £4 for too long.
In summary:
Strengths
Low geo-political risk (North Sea)
Proven reserves (at least 150 mm barrels)
Proven high flow rate
Innovative Bentley Alliance field development structure
Production and exploration rig letter of intent signed (final completion due by January 15th)
Weaknesses
Currently AIM listed so high share price volatility
One asset company
Opportunities
Resource upgrade (strong possibility in January) following CPR
Further exploration upside
Will be 3rd largest independent oil producer in North Sea
Threats
Delays due to offshore drilling
Fund raising (low risk due to Bentley Alliance structure and SEDA)
Further director share sales
Happy New Year readers!
To start 2011 I will make my first post on the North sea oil company, Xcite Energy (XEL), listed on UK AIM and the Canadian TSX (Toronto Stock Exchange). Xcite own a 100% working interest in the Bentley heavy oil field which it acquired in 2003, approximately 160km east of the Shetland Isles. In February 2009, RPS Energy published a Competent Persons Report (CPR) for block 9/3b, in which they assigned the highest category of Contingent Resources to the field with a probability of commercial success of 70% and Base Case resources of 122.5 MMbbls. Subsequent to the CPR, based on reprocessed 3D seismic, XER have shown the Bentley East feature to be part of the overall Bentley field and, therefore, now include a second drill centre to the south to access Bentley East and the southern areas of the field, thereby adding 40 MMbbls to the base case resources. The Bentley field, therefore, has most-likely (P50) resources of around 160 MMbbls, with a low to high range (broadly equivalent to P90 to P10) from 109 to 235 MMbbls, assuming conventional, cold flow recovery, utilising pumps to lift the oil. The big question for Xcite was, could they get the oil to flow out of the reservoir because it contains heavy, viscous oil. This oil attracts a price around 10% lower than standard Brent Crude and historically was difficult to extract. Bentley was previously owned by U.S. company Conoco Phillips, who drilled several times in the 1980's but failed to bring oil to surface.
Rather than adopt a traditional farm in model, Xcite has entered into a more innovative solution. A contractor based model called the "Bentley Alliance", whereby it works with several partners with particular experience. These partners are able to take a small equity stake to help fund development of the field. Estimates for production development are around $100 million which is likely to be 50% in the form of equity and 50% debt. The partners in the alliance are:
• BP - marketing of oil and $20m debt provider
• Transocean Drilling - rig provider for the 9/3b-R well and EPS
• ADTI - well management and drilling contractor alongside Transocean
• AMEC - engineering services for EPS & full field development
• Fugro – geotechnical services partner
I came into the Xcite party fairly late in the day, so missed the big move from 60p+, but starting building a large position prior to the Bentley Field Block 9/3b flow test during November. Its been quite a ride, as the share price oscillated into the 325p+ range then collapsed as low as 230p during early December, as the flow test was postponed due to poor weather in the North Sea then a faulty pipe to the tanker. Rumours circulated on iii.co.uk and advfn bulletin boards that the delay was due to a flow test failure. The market makers saw their opportunity and swung the price down heavily to trigger private investors stop losses and "doom and gloom" pervaded most posts. I had to laugh as random Twitter and "bloke in a pub" rumours were seen as proof of issues. So what did I do, I bought more Xcite based not on the rumour mill but on the fundamentals of xcite which looked very exciting!
The RNS from 8th November 2010 confirmed the potential of the Bentley field, "The Company is pleased to announce that the 9/3b-6 well on the Bentley field is progressing on plan, on schedule and has reached target depth for the second part of the planned work programme, the horizontal section of the well, 9/3b-6z.The horizontal section has reached the planned total depth at 7085 ft measured depth in the well section and has successfully tracked the top of the reservoir. This provides over1800 ft of gross reservoir section since reservoir entry point of 5261 ft measured depth. The reservoir in the 9/3b-6z well bore section was encountered at an estimated 3618 ft true vertical depth subsea, some 18ft higher than the pre-well prognosis of 3636 ft true vertical depth and thus giving more oil column. Petrophysical analysis is being undertaken and is expected to confirm close to 100% net to gross oil pay. The completion and testing of this horizontal section is expected by the end of November."
Finally on the 21 December 2010, XEL issued the RNS I was waiting for. "The Company announces that the flow test of the 9/3b-6z horizontal well on the Bentley field has been successfully completed.The flow rates achieved demonstrate both the commerciality of the Bentley field and the reservoir properties to be above the upper end of modelled expectations. Key flow test results were: 1) Total flow test of 36 hours including clean-up of 9 hours, with cumulative production to tote tanks of over 2,000 barrels. 2) Multi-rate flow tests were conducted, culminating in a final stabilised flow rate of 2,900 stock tank barrels of oil per day. Richard Smith, Chief Executive Officer of Xcite Energy, commented: "This is an outstanding outcome for the Xcite team and for the industry contractors to deliver this successful well test on Bentley. This flow test fully demonstrates the commercial potential of the Bentley field and the long-held belief that Xcite has maintained in this major North Sea asset. We now move on to the first stage production planned for 2011 with an excellent platform.""
On board the Ocean Nomad rig, engineers had used tote tanks to measure the flow rather than plan A which would have been direct transfer to the Betty Knutsen, the tanker originally contracted to receive the oil. To allow the field to be commercially viable required a flow rate of at least 1200 barrels a day. 2900 barrels a day flow rate was an exceptionally positive result.
So on December 21st, Xcite not only had a heavy oil reservoir of 150 million barrels plus, but proof it could be extracted and with a good flow rate. A huge de-risking by any standard. So what happened next? You would think that the share price would have exploded upwards with all the uncertainty removed. Well on the release of the RNS, the share price moved sharply upward to reach 420p or so. Then as profit taking kicked in the price began to drift down, with some director selling on December 24th exacerbating the move down. With rumours of a seriously dilutive placing at below £3 the share price fell to a low of 330p i.e. back to where it was before the flow test! A great opportunity for a bit of pre-Christmas Xcite shopping and Contrarian Investor UK upped his stake big time at this bargain price.
Xcite has benefitted from a Standby Equity Distribution Agreement ("SEDA") with YA Global Master SPV Ltd, which was increased by £20 million to £60 million in December, which should reduce the possibility of a placing. The SEDA allows Xcite to request money at a point of its own choosing, in return for the issue of shares at zero discount. These shares cannot be sold for 4 months after their issue.The "Bentley Alliance" structure and relatively low field set up costs also reduces the risk of any major shareholder dilution. In the unlikely event of a placing, like the recent one completed by Bowleven (BLVN), I do not believe that the discount will be large. I note the recent director's sale to an institution at £3.837, hardly at a knock down price! As for the director sales themselves, they still retain 85% of their holdings.
So what next from Xcite? Is it time to move on to another stock? Not on your nelly!! There's plenty of news flow to come. The key sentence from the RNS December 21st was "The flow rates achieved demonstrate both the commerciality of the Bentley field and the reservoir properties to be above the upper end of modelled expectations." So it would be expected that an independent CPR (Competent persons report) would be due during January to confirm the upside of the field. Once this is in the bag, watch the institutions pile into this share. Then we have the confirmation of the agreement to retain the N-Class "Rowan Norway", a harsh environment, deep water jack-up unit, designed and built for simultaneous drilling and production, which is currently under construction. Agreement has to be made by January 15th 2011 to avoid a $4 million termination fee. And don't forget that Xcite will start producing from the field during 2011 - it's not a 3 year wait for the oil to come to market.
So on December 21st, Xcite not only had a heavy oil reservoir of 150 million barrels plus, but proof it could be extracted and with a good flow rate. A huge de-risking by any standard. So what happened next? You would think that the share price would have exploded upwards with all the uncertainty removed. Well on the release of the RNS, the share price moved sharply upward to reach 420p or so. Then as profit taking kicked in the price began to drift down, with some director selling on December 24th exacerbating the move down. With rumours of a seriously dilutive placing at below £3 the share price fell to a low of 330p i.e. back to where it was before the flow test! A great opportunity for a bit of pre-Christmas Xcite shopping and Contrarian Investor UK upped his stake big time at this bargain price.
Xcite has benefitted from a Standby Equity Distribution Agreement ("SEDA") with YA Global Master SPV Ltd, which was increased by £20 million to £60 million in December, which should reduce the possibility of a placing. The SEDA allows Xcite to request money at a point of its own choosing, in return for the issue of shares at zero discount. These shares cannot be sold for 4 months after their issue.The "Bentley Alliance" structure and relatively low field set up costs also reduces the risk of any major shareholder dilution. In the unlikely event of a placing, like the recent one completed by Bowleven (BLVN), I do not believe that the discount will be large. I note the recent director's sale to an institution at £3.837, hardly at a knock down price! As for the director sales themselves, they still retain 85% of their holdings.
So what next from Xcite? Is it time to move on to another stock? Not on your nelly!! There's plenty of news flow to come. The key sentence from the RNS December 21st was "The flow rates achieved demonstrate both the commerciality of the Bentley field and the reservoir properties to be above the upper end of modelled expectations." So it would be expected that an independent CPR (Competent persons report) would be due during January to confirm the upside of the field. Once this is in the bag, watch the institutions pile into this share. Then we have the confirmation of the agreement to retain the N-Class "Rowan Norway", a harsh environment, deep water jack-up unit, designed and built for simultaneous drilling and production, which is currently under construction. Agreement has to be made by January 15th 2011 to avoid a $4 million termination fee. And don't forget that Xcite will start producing from the field during 2011 - it's not a 3 year wait for the oil to come to market.
Sure there was other AIM shares where the upside may be larger in 2011, but the key with Xcite is that we could see a share price of at least £5-6 in the next few months (up from its current £3.83) without the downside risk of a Bowleven or Range Resources. I read about Gulf Keystone etc. Would you rather buy into an asset in the North sea or Kurdistan, Iraq?! We know the oil is there and can be brought to the surface. I am somewhat over invested in Xcite and am nicely in profit but I am not selling one share until we see at least 500p, and I do not believe this is a pie in the sky target by any means. If we assume that the field is 200 million barrels and this is worth $10 a barrel after costs, then Xcite have a $2.0 billion asset. The current market capitalisation is £607 million or around $900 million, giving a 100% upside. Xcite would make a nice acquisition for a larger oil player. The company has announced a "poison pill" clause in the event of a takeover which allow existing investors to buy more shares at a discounted rate. Sit back and relax with Xcite, Contrarian Investor believes you won't be seeing a share price below £4 for too long.
In summary:
Strengths
Low geo-political risk (North Sea)
Proven reserves (at least 150 mm barrels)
Proven high flow rate
Innovative Bentley Alliance field development structure
Production and exploration rig letter of intent signed (final completion due by January 15th)
Weaknesses
Currently AIM listed so high share price volatility
One asset company
Opportunities
Resource upgrade (strong possibility in January) following CPR
Further exploration upside
Will be 3rd largest independent oil producer in North Sea
Threats
Delays due to offshore drilling
Fund raising (low risk due to Bentley Alliance structure and SEDA)
Further director share sales
Happy New Year readers!
Sunday, July 4, 2010
Portfolio review of the week July 4th 2010
On Friday the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished down 46 points , or 0.5%, to 9,686 its seventh day of falls, with a weekly drop of 4.5%. The S&P 500 moved down 5 points, or 0.5%, to end at 1,022, making it a 5% drop for the week. The Nasdaq Composite Index fell 10 points, or 0.5%, to 2,091, a drop of 5.9% for the week. The FTSE 100 gained 32 points or 0.7% to 4,838, but fell over 4% on the week.
The last time U.S. markets fell every day during a week was in October 2008 following the collapse of Lehman Brothers. On Friday, U.S. employment data disappointed with nonfarm payrolls falling by 125,000 in June, compared with 430,000 jobs created in May, as the number of temporary census workers dropped by 225,000. The unemployment rate fell to 9.5%, the lowest rate since July last year and down from 9.7% in May. U.S. factory orders declined in May, posting the largest drop in 14 months as transportation related orders declined heavily.Overall economic data for the week was below expectations which helped fuel the sell off. Overall investors are struggling to find reasons to buy stocks and technical investors are closely looking whether the S&P 500 will breach the key 1000 level during July.
Commodity stocks were weak for most of last week as worries about a U.S. and European double dip recession and a potentially slowing Chinese economy hit sentiment. On Friday, this negativity was partially reversed by the the Australian government’s decision to replace the resources ‘Super Tax’ with a less onerous alternative called the Mineral Resource Rent Tax (MRRT) which would apply to iron ore and coal from July 2012. Bank stocks were also moved down by renewed fears about sovereign debt in the euro zone.
The reversal in sentiment during the second quarter of 2010 has been significant with falls of around 10% in most indices wiping out gains made during the first quarter. The FTSE 100 has fallen more than 13% since the start of the year, with BP contributing a fall of 200 points in the index all by itself. Whereas investors thought the economic recovery was assured during the early part of 2010, now it all looks very different. With governments implementing tough austerity budgets to bring their deficits under control and the the effects of the Chinese stimulus package beginning to wane the rest of 2010 looks less rosy.
With all this negative sentiment, the Contrarian Investor UK portfolio has begun to find value again in some sectors. With ITV dropping below 50p, a purchase was made for the portfolio. Though positions were aggressively trimmed during Q1 to take advantage of the gains, holdings in Ithaca Energy (IAE) and Coal of Africa (CZA) have performed particularly poorly during the last 2 weeks. These remain good quality stocks were the energy and commodity sectors have been hit. Overall I am not taking an aggressive position on the long or short side but any further large falls will be seen as a buying opportunity. I would be surprised if the Dow fell below 9,000 since we are not in 2008 territory by any means.
The last time U.S. markets fell every day during a week was in October 2008 following the collapse of Lehman Brothers. On Friday, U.S. employment data disappointed with nonfarm payrolls falling by 125,000 in June, compared with 430,000 jobs created in May, as the number of temporary census workers dropped by 225,000. The unemployment rate fell to 9.5%, the lowest rate since July last year and down from 9.7% in May. U.S. factory orders declined in May, posting the largest drop in 14 months as transportation related orders declined heavily.Overall economic data for the week was below expectations which helped fuel the sell off. Overall investors are struggling to find reasons to buy stocks and technical investors are closely looking whether the S&P 500 will breach the key 1000 level during July.
Commodity stocks were weak for most of last week as worries about a U.S. and European double dip recession and a potentially slowing Chinese economy hit sentiment. On Friday, this negativity was partially reversed by the the Australian government’s decision to replace the resources ‘Super Tax’ with a less onerous alternative called the Mineral Resource Rent Tax (MRRT) which would apply to iron ore and coal from July 2012. Bank stocks were also moved down by renewed fears about sovereign debt in the euro zone.
The reversal in sentiment during the second quarter of 2010 has been significant with falls of around 10% in most indices wiping out gains made during the first quarter. The FTSE 100 has fallen more than 13% since the start of the year, with BP contributing a fall of 200 points in the index all by itself. Whereas investors thought the economic recovery was assured during the early part of 2010, now it all looks very different. With governments implementing tough austerity budgets to bring their deficits under control and the the effects of the Chinese stimulus package beginning to wane the rest of 2010 looks less rosy.
With all this negative sentiment, the Contrarian Investor UK portfolio has begun to find value again in some sectors. With ITV dropping below 50p, a purchase was made for the portfolio. Though positions were aggressively trimmed during Q1 to take advantage of the gains, holdings in Ithaca Energy (IAE) and Coal of Africa (CZA) have performed particularly poorly during the last 2 weeks. These remain good quality stocks were the energy and commodity sectors have been hit. Overall I am not taking an aggressive position on the long or short side but any further large falls will be seen as a buying opportunity. I would be surprised if the Dow fell below 9,000 since we are not in 2008 territory by any means.
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