Trades and observations from a British contrarian stock investor

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Showing posts with label FTSE 100. Show all posts
Showing posts with label FTSE 100. Show all posts

Tuesday, February 22, 2011

Sea of red today as fear stalks market

The FTSE 100 managed to regain some of its poise late in the session, finishing down 18 at 5,997 after being much further in the red in the morning. Worries about the Libyan crisis and poor results from retailer Walmart were offset by good consumer confidence numbers from the U.S. and encouraging news on a budget surplus in the U.K. last month. Looks like the VAT rise to 20% and the increase in capital gains tax from 18 to 28% is finally swelling the Treasury coffers!

Another dreadful day for the Contrarian Investor UK portfolio with all the stocks down and with the oil stocks feeling the pain despite the rising oil price. It was nice to see Bowleven finally rebound to finish up 2%  at 313p after falling below £3 this morning. I couldn't resist a top up at £3 with so much news to come from its Cameroon Sapele-1 well and other drilling activities. As for Rockhopper, I am gob smacked it is now at 232p after yet another 6% fall so I am well down on this. Fortunately there is no rush to sell at these levels, i'm holding firm for the results of the 14/10-4 well in mid-March. Crazy that its dropped £1.50 since the 14-10/3 well result and yet Goldman Sachs has its target price over £6. Institution selling plus private investors fearing for their lives. What's with the nonsense about a Sea Lion duster!! What next? Glad i derisked on Xcite last week with anothet 9p fall. Had far too much in Xcite until a couple of weeks ago. Shame I put some of it in Rockhopper, we're all human!!!

Monday, February 21, 2011

Sense of realism finally hits stock markets

After all the worrying developments from the Middle East, rising inflation concerns both here and in China, oil above $100 a barrel, a bloated U.S. Deficit, Eurozone debt worries and weakening consumer sentiment it was always a surprise that the FTSE was still above 6,000 and the S&P 500 hit a level double its March 2009 low last week. The Ftse 100 fell 64  points today to 6,019 with the big banks falling nearly 4% over worries about European debt. U.S. markets were closed due to President's day.

The Contrarian Investor UK portfolio got a battering with Bowleven dropping to 307p, a pound of its recent highs and Rockhopper finishing at 250p, a drop of close to 140p in the last 3 weeks. Xcite continues to drift lower as we await the CPR document to 344p, it was trading at 400p to buy less than 2 weeks ago on takeover rumours. Now the rumours are more of a 350p institutional placing. Its been a bad month, roll on March!

Saturday, February 19, 2011

Portfolio review of the week - 19th February 2011

Despite continued violence in Bahrain and an increase in Chinese interest rates to curb inflation, the FTSE 100  ended only marginally down at 6,083, a decline of 4 points giving a 20 point or 0.3% rise over the week.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average  rose 73 points, or 0.6%, to 12,391 its highest close for two and a half years.The Nasdaq rose 2, to 2,834, its highest close since October 31, 2007.

Violence is escalating in Bahrain between Sunni Muslim rulers and its Shiite majority population. Though ICE Brent for April was slightly lower at $102.52, after trading from $100.73 to $103.50. WTI U.S. crude finished at $86, down 0.2%.

Despite a strong oil price this week, the Contrarian Investor UK portfolio has suffered a second week of weakness. Its been a week of selling as I have de-leveraged on Xcite Energy (XEL) and sold my stake in Angel Mining.

Xcite Energy (XEL) - Xcite lost 29p or nearly 8% this week to finish at 353p as rumours continue to grow of a fund raising at around 350p to accompany the CPR (Competent Persons Report) which will move contingent resources to proven reserves and allow field development to begin. Though the CPR is expected to be positive, giving reserves of 225-250 million barrels of oil for the Bentley field, at least £200 million in shares is likely to be placed with institutions. With the price spiking to close to 400p last week on takeover rumours and with the likelihood of share price weakness, I took the opportunity to sell some of the holding to allow funds for acquisitions of other shares in the case of a market fall.

Bowleven (BLVN) - Bowleven dropped yet another 3.2% this week with news from the Sapele 1 side track several weeks away. At 318p, this appears bargain basement given the resources already discovered in Cameroon but sales by the BT Pension fund have helped move down the price. Frustrating given the upside potential in this share and it is now 9p below the last placing in October 2010.

Rockhopper (RKH) - Rockhopper dropped another 5% this week with the impact of the market disappointment from the 14/10-3 North Falklands basin well still being felt. The spudding of 14/10-4 which is much closer to the SeaLion discovery is due any day.  On fundamentals Rockhopper now looks very cheap. Its market capitalisation of £682 million, means that with £200 million in the bank deducted, Sea Lion's 170 million barrels are valued at just over $4 a barrel with no upside whatsoever. 14/10-3 is likely to add 40 million barrels to the discovery alone. Painful to be down on this one, but I believe patience will be rewarded and buyers will return with 7 wells yet to be drilled and a high COS (probability of success) on the new well.

Angel Mining (ANGM) - I lost patience with Angel Mining after we went into the 3rd week of February with no news from their Nalulaq gold mine. In my view no news is bad news, so I sold. Good long term prospects but things are very tight on cash flow and the last thing investors need is a cash call or increase in the SEDA (equity drawdown agreement).

Weatherly International (WTI) - Good to see copper miner Weatherly bounce on Friday to 12.4p (but still 5% down on the week) on news that Blackrock Smaller Companies has built a 7% share. This doesn't surprise since the constantly widening spread seemed to indicate the the market makers were playing some sort of game to accomodate some large block buys. Its good to see Blackrock involved to a greater extent a long with Gartmore as production ramps up in this really exciting Namibian copper company.  I am sure that we won't be seeing 12p for long with Copper at record highs and so much news to come from WTI in the coming months. I put a big slug into my SIPP pension plan earlier in the week because the risk/reward was excellent at less than 12p.

Wednesday, February 2, 2011

FTSE back to 6,000 mark on manufacturing data

The FTSE 100 closed up 42 points at 6,000 after U.K. manufacturing data proved particularly strong and positive corporate results from constituent Imperial Tobacco (IMT) which ended up 6% after its sales for the final quarter of 2010 were up 5%. Strength in commodity stocks also helped the index. The U.S. market is relatively stable, with the DOW up 11 points at 12,051.

On the Contrarian Investor UK portfolio front its been a stable but uninteresting day. Every stock finished up, but by relatively small percentages. Interesting that Rockhopper (RKH) finished in positive territory after a sell off this morning and Xcite had some relatively big buys at the close. By generally nothing much to report. Hopefully some good RNS's to get my teeth stuck into tomorrow! Sorry to readers that there's nothing earth shattering to write about.

Monday, January 31, 2011

Good start to 2011 in U.S. and Contrarian, not so bright for FTSE 100

Despite all the tension in the Middle East, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ended up 68 points, to 11,892 making it a 2.7% rise for the month, its best January since 1997. The FTSE 100 has not been so fortunate, with the index falling 0.6% in January to 5,881. The discrepancy in performance is largely explained by the larger presence of cyclical stocks such as industrial group Caterpillar (CAT) in the DOW. Also the fact that it is a price weighted index (i.e. the higher the price of a stock the greater its weighting within the index) whereas the FTSE 100 is a market cap weighted index is not widely recognised (and hence the U.S. S&P 500 is a better measure of U.S. stock market performance).

The Contrarian Investor UK portfolio suffered again today on the market sell off and unfortunately Imagination Technology (IMG) fell through a stop loss set 10% below buy price. The strong start to the year precipitated by some good gains in Xcite (when it went close to 400p) and Bowleven, have been marred by the Imagination loss (fortunately not a huge position) and a stupidly set stop loss on Sirius Minerals which caught me out and which was only set to control my required margin requirements (daft to do given the volatility of SXX).  But still up nicely for the Month so a good start to 2011 but it could have been a lot better. Now for Xcite and Bowleven to come in February!


Sunday, January 30, 2011

Portfolio review of the week - 30th January 2011

Rioting in Egypt over the rule of President Hosni Mubarek sent shares down on Friday with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 166 points, or 1.39%, to 11,823 (the biggest drop since November 16th 2010) The Dow fell 0.4% on the week, its first weekly drop in nine weeks. The FTSE 100 index dropped 1.4% to end at 5,88, a 0.25% drop on the week.

The issues in Egypt drove up oil by 5% to $89 (see previous post: http://contrarianinvestoruk.blogspot.com/2011/01/oil-surges-on-egypt-issues.html) and sentiment in the U.K. wasn't helped by news that a U.K. consumer confidence index dropped eight points in January to -29, the lowest figure since March 2009 and only the sixth time in 35 years it has dropped by so much. Despite the oil price surge, oil stocks were mainly in the red.

The fall in the markets was overdue since after 8 weeks of rises on the U.S. markets, a correction was to be expected and the Egyptian situation was the catalyst for a sell off and profit taking. Further volatility can be expected this week and at times like this opportunities for buying can be excellent as uncertainty and the bears take hold of sentiment. 2011 will be a volatile year in the markets.

There has only been once change in the portfolio this week with the addition of Namibian copper miner, Weatherly International (WTI) (see post - http://contrarianinvestoruk.blogspot.com/2011/01/weatherly-international-namibian-copper.html).

Xcite Energy (XEL):  It was good to see Xcite rising on Thursday and Friday after drifting for some many weeks following the oilbarrel.com presentation, finishing at £3.71. Given the market environment at the tail end of last week and general negative oil company sentiment it was reassuring to see a rise. There has been lots of rumours doing the rounds about Xcite this week, with FT Alphaville claiming that it was in takeover talks. The deadline for the rig signing is tomorrow and I am surprised they have left it to the wire. Director of Business Development, Charles Lucas-Clements said at the Oilbarrel conference that investors should not be worried and that the deal would be done but why wait until the 31st? Although I have dismissed the takeover rumours as just that, rumours, it does seem strange and as Lucas-Clements said at Oilbarrel, "don't sell you will see this share double or triple". Perhaps he was referring to February 2011 not a later date on a bid? I guess we'll find out soon enough! Hopefully an RNS tomorrow morning to explain what's happening. Even if a takeover is nonsense then news that they have got the Rowan Stavanger, instead of Rowan Norway, until Talisman Norway need it would be fabulous as production timings would be accelerated. If the Competent Person's report is due in February it would also be good to get an update on progress.

Bowleven (BLVN) - Wild oscillations in the share price this week with the price dropping to 330p on Thursday before rebounding to finish at 355p. News that JP Morgan had offloaded some of their stake and a feeling that this seller was out of the way took the pressure off. I am still surprised that the share price has dropped quite so much with so much good news from Cameroon but market sentiment is not as rosy as it was a few weeks ago.

Rockhopper (RKH) - Little change as the rumour mill starts on progress at the 14/10-3 exploration well. News likely later in the week. Frankly there's so much rubbish on the bulletin boards on RKH I can't even face ploughing through them!

Sirius Exploration (SXX) - A sharp sell off this week after the news from the North Dakota exploration drill (see post - http://contrarianinvestoruk.blogspot.com/2011/01/todays-sirius-minerals-action-is-par.html). The shares dropped 17% to 17.25p. I continue to hold for the reason's cited in the post above.

Imagination technology (IMG) - A 4% drop this week to 368p on no news. I continue to hold but may be one to cull this week as now close to 10% below my buy point.

Angel Mining (ANGM) - We still await the news of the dore shipment for the Nalunaq mine which was promised in January. Time running out? - news on Monday perhaps or another delay?

Wednesday, January 26, 2011

DOW JONES moves over 12,000 for the first time since mid 2008

The Dow Jones Industrial Average has finally breached the 12,000 mark for the first time since June 25, 2008 driven by strong new home sales were the highest since April 2010 when tax credits artificially boosted sales. The FTSE 100 is also in good form up 75 to 5,992.

Thursday, January 20, 2011

FTSE 100 gets a good pasting after China worries

The FTSE 100 fell 109 points today to close at 5,868 on fears that that the Chinese government will be forced to increase interest rates to dampen growth in an economy growing at over 10% in the last quarter of 2010. This meant bad news for commodity stocks on concerns on a fall off of Chinese demand.

Bay day for parts of the portfolio (Sirius, Bowleven, Imagination Tech) as technology and oil stocks were hit hard. On the positive side, Angel mining stayed flat after a weak start and largest holding Xcite finished the day up 7.5p (after rising as much as 16p) in the early afternoon.

Rising commodity prices are beginning to take their toll on some sectors. EasyJet (EZJ) dropped16%, the most in 6 1/2 years, after it said its first-half loss may double after increasing fuel costs due to the high oil price rose and poor weather caused flights to be canceled. Pretax losses for the six months to March 31 will be around £160 million compared with £78.7 million a year earlier. Associated British Foods (ABF) and Dominoes Pizza (DOM), dropped 3% and 6% respectively on fears of the impact of rising food ingredient prices. Prices of many commodities continue to rocket to multi year highs due to bad weather, speculation and the effect of the falling dollar (as many of these commodities are sold in US dollars). Ultimately, this may feed through to rising retail inflation and rising interest rates which will curtail economic growth.

As I predicted in my forecast for 2011, the year would be choppy with many opportunities to buy on corrections and many opportunities to sell on market peaks (see my post on the FTSE and DOW for 2011 http://contrarianinvestoruk.blogspot.com/2011/01/prediction-for-ftse-100-and-dow.html)

Thursday, January 6, 2011

Optimism continues on US jobs data

Wall Street notched up its 5th straight day of gains last night as more evidence emerged that the economic recovery was on track emerged from better than expected jobs and service sector data. The Dow Jones Industrials ended at 11,723. Investors are watching and waiting for Friday’s U.S. non-farm payroll numbers to confirm the strength of the economic rebound. If these figures exceed consensus then expect a very strong day on the markets.

In the U.K., the FTSE 100 is currently up 27 to 6,071 despite some poor retail trading figures from the likes of Mothercare.

As I mentioned on a previous post, when sentiment is this strong, I tend to stay on the sidelines. As Warren Buffett once said “We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful.”. There is a little too much greed in the air for my liking. I know a correction will come, it might be days or weeks, but this is the time I will be buying, not now. Sure opportunities will be missed on these momentum trades, but I know I can sleep at night buying on dips rather than
on peaks. When the Sunday newspapers are telling everyone to get on the equity bandwagon my advice is to be cautious.

Sunday, July 4, 2010

Portfolio review of the week July 4th 2010

On Friday the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished down 46 points , or 0.5%, to 9,686 its seventh day of falls, with a weekly drop of 4.5%. The S&P 500 moved down 5 points, or 0.5%, to end at 1,022, making it a 5% drop for the week. The Nasdaq Composite Index fell 10 points, or 0.5%, to 2,091, a drop of 5.9% for the week. The FTSE 100 gained 32 points or 0.7% to 4,838, but fell over 4% on the week.

The last time U.S. markets fell every day during a week was in October 2008 following the collapse of Lehman Brothers. On Friday, U.S. employment data disappointed with nonfarm payrolls falling by 125,000 in June, compared with 430,000 jobs created in May, as the number of temporary census workers dropped by 225,000. The unemployment rate fell to 9.5%, the lowest rate since July last year and down from 9.7% in May. U.S. factory orders declined in May, posting the largest drop in 14 months as transportation related orders declined heavily.Overall economic data for the week was below expectations which helped fuel the sell off. Overall investors are struggling to find reasons to buy stocks and technical investors are closely looking whether the S&P 500 will breach the key 1000 level during July.

Commodity stocks were weak for most of last week as worries about a U.S. and European double dip recession and a potentially slowing Chinese economy hit sentiment. On Friday, this negativity was partially reversed by the the Australian government’s decision to replace the resources ‘Super Tax’ with a less onerous alternative called the Mineral Resource Rent Tax (MRRT) which would apply to iron ore and coal from July 2012. Bank stocks were also moved down by renewed fears about sovereign debt in the euro zone.

The reversal in sentiment during the second quarter of 2010 has been significant with falls of around 10% in most indices wiping out gains made during the first quarter. The FTSE 100 has fallen more than 13% since the start of the year, with BP contributing a fall of 200 points in the index all by itself. Whereas investors thought the economic recovery was assured during the early part of 2010, now it all looks very different. With governments implementing tough austerity budgets to bring their deficits under control and the the effects of the Chinese stimulus package beginning to wane the rest of 2010 looks less rosy.

With all this negative sentiment, the Contrarian Investor UK portfolio has begun to find value again in some sectors. With ITV dropping below 50p, a purchase was made for the portfolio. Though positions were aggressively trimmed during Q1 to take advantage of the gains, holdings in Ithaca Energy (IAE) and Coal of Africa (CZA) have performed particularly poorly during the last 2 weeks. These remain good quality stocks were the energy and commodity sectors have been hit. Overall I am not taking an aggressive position on the long or short side but any further large falls will be seen as a buying opportunity. I would be surprised if the Dow fell below 9,000 since we are not in 2008 territory by any means.

Friday, June 11, 2010

German court decision and euro strength helps markets

Last night the the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished at 10,173, up 273 points or 2.7% after a German court blocked attempts to stop contributions to the euro zone default prevention fund. The S&P 500 Index climbed 31 points, or 3%, to 1,086. A strengthening euro above $1.21 also helped sentiment.

The FTSE 100 is currently up 48 points to 5,179. But the good news was tempered this morning when figures from the Office of National Statistics show a 0.4% fall in manufacturing production in April. There were expectations of a 0.5% rise after a 2.2% increase in March. Producer prices rose by 0.3% in May, against expectations of a 0.5% rise demonstrating that manufacturers are starting to struggle to push through price increases to buyers.

BP (BP.) is currently up 7% or 28p or 393p as sentiment turned more positive about the medium term impact on dividend payments after the steep falls earlier in the week. Unfortunately the portfolio was unable to benefit as the positon was sold yesterday at a profit but a frustrating not to take part in today's rise after the falls to around 340p yesterday morning.

Thursday, June 10, 2010

Wall Street reverses and finishes below 10,000

Stock markets are again under pressure this morning as the U.S. markets reversed strong gains last night to finish down. The Dow Jones Industrials closed at 9,899 down 41 points after being up more than 100 points earlier in the session. The only reasons for the switch in sentiment seem to have been a weakening euro (back below the $1.20 level) and a huge sell off in BP shares on dividend cut or even bankruptcy fears which sent it to a 14 year low.  BP was forced to issue a statement this morning that it was financially strong, had good cash flows and had a borrowing level below target. It opened down over 30p to £3.38 but has since recovered to £3.68. A buy for the portfolio was made on the weakness which now seems overdone since its seems unlikely the firm would ever go bust despite the Gulf of Mexico liabilities.

The FTSE 100 is currently down 31 points to 5,057 after moving below 5,000 in early trades.

Wednesday, June 9, 2010

Markets back in positive territory on Bernanke comments

The FTSE 100 moved back up 57 points to close at 5,086 and the Dow Jones industrials are currently up 118 to move past the 10,000 barrier to 10,058. Commodity stocks were helped by reports from China that exports were 50% higher in May than a year ago. Comments by U.S. Federal reserve chairman Ben Bernanke also helped sentiment when he said last night that and today that any residual impact of Europe's debt trouble on U.S. economic growth would likely be modest so long as financial markets continue to heal and he pressed politucians to address the scale of their budget deficits both in the U.S. and globally. After the falls of the past few days, traders were saying that economically sensitive sectors like industrials, infrastructure and technology were over sold.

Monday, June 7, 2010

Continued economic worries move down stocks

The after effects of last Friday's disappointing U.S.jobs numbers and fears about the health of Hungary and other European economies are moving stocks down this morning. The FTSE 100 is currently down 73 points to 5,051 and Dow futures are down a further 40 points to 9,897. Commodity stocks are baring the brunt of the pain with metal prices falling heavily - Kazakhmys (KAZ) is down 3.5% at £10.80 and Aquarius Platinum (AQP) is down 5% to £3.41.

BP (BP.) moved against the trend with a 5p rise to £4.38 as they reported some success in stemming the flow of oil from the damaged well in the Gulf of Mexico.

Saturday, June 5, 2010

Portfolio review of the week June 5th 2010

After a week of significant volatility, markets fell heavily yesterday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling on disappointing jobs news from the U.S. and fears of a spread in the European debt crisis due to Hungary. The Dow fell 323 points, or 3.2%, to 9,931 and finished the week below the key 10,000 mark and 2% lower for the week. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 84 points or 3.6% on Friday to finish at 2,219 and down 1.7% for the week. The S&P 500 dropped 3.44% or 38 points to 1,065 with a fall of 2.3% for the week. The FTSE 100 fell 85 points or 1.6% to 5,126 on Friday and finished down 1.2% for the week. However, FTSE futures are pointing to another 50 point drop on Monday since the worst of the Wall Street falls were not seen until after the close of the European markets.

Industrial and infrastructure stocks (e.g. Caterpillar CAT down 5.5% at $57.7) were hit particularly hard as a weakening euro means that revenues will be hit as the sales are translated back to dollars on currency conversion, plus any weakening of the European economies will hold back sales volumes. In addition, a weakening of commodity prices such as oil (which dropped over 4% to $71) and banking fears hit financials, energy and commodity stocks - Conoco Philipps (COP) was down 3.7% to $50, Barclays (BARC) was down 4.7% to £2.88, BHP Billioton (BHP) dropped 3.7% to £17.71.

The key reason for the decline was that U.S. non farm payrolls rose by only 431,000 last month, short of expectations for a rise of 515,000 jobs. Most of the rise was due to temporary census staff hiring (which created 411,000 jobs) and only 41,000 private sector jobs were created (against 218,000 in April). There were also downward revisions to payrolls in March and April, both 22,000 lower at 208,000 and 290,000 respectively. The unemployment rate dropped to 9.7% in May from 9.9% the previous month, in line with expectations.

On top of this the euro got a battering with a fall below the $1.20 level against the dollar being the lowest point for four years as fears that Hungary may suffer a Greek style debt crisis emerged. Hungary is in the European union but not part of the euro. However, after the concerns about Spain last week, worries about Hungary have given investors plenty of reasons to be pessimistic about the state of European finances and the health of its banks. A spokesman for Viktor Orban, the Hungarian Prime Minister, suggested that his country had only a slim chance of avoiding a Greek-style debt crisis. Peter Szijjarto, the Prime Minister’s spokesman, said that his Government was “ready to avoid the path that Greece took ... After realising what reality is, we will not hesitate to act.” The potential exposure to any Hungarian default by European markets is a stark reminder that the write-down's of the banks may not be over.

The Contrarian Investor UK portfolio has had limited trading over the last 2 weeks due to holiday. But positions were initiated in Coal of Africa (CZA) at 104p and BP at £4.19. The Coal of Africa position is retained but BP was sold on Thursday at £4.50. Short term trades were all put in play on Barclays (BARC), Man Group (MAN) and Prudential (PRU) which were all closed within a day or two as the market rebounded from the market falls late in May. The falls of last week have put some interesting opportunities on the table and I will take these on any further weakness during the early part of next week especially if the FTSE moves below 5000 again. Any fall in the U.S. S&P 500 below the key technical 1,050 level will be watched with interest.

It was disappointing not to be involved in the huge spike in the Falkland Islands oil shares yesterday after Rockhopper (RKH) issued a very positive technical update on its Sealion oil find in the North Falklands basin. RKH finished up 33% at £3.19, Desire Petroleum (DES) was up 22% at £1.00 and Falklands Oil and Gas (FOGL) was 10.5% at £2.06. Rockhopper upgraded the size of the find to 242 million barrels recoverable with further increases likely. After seeing the price drop to below a £1.00 on Wednesday on false rumours of a poor quality oil discovery (and possibly some sort of manipulation), buyers at this point have seen a 300% plus increase. After having my finger on the trigger to buy at these levels I am frustrated that I didn't proceed. Nice profit missed. It is incredible to think that Rockhopper was trading in the 35p range as little as a few weeks ago before the results of the Sealion appraisal well. So continued holders are nearly at the "ten bagger"stage. You don't see too many of these trading opportunities and I am sure that many have profited nicely. I am also sure that many lost a lot of money during the "flash crash" of Wednesday. It has been positive to see some good profits in these Falkland Islands shares, but what could have been if I'd had the nerve!?

Thursday, June 3, 2010

Markets looking strong today after rise in U.S. last night

On Wednesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 225 points or 2.3% to close at 10,250 with all 30 components closer higher. The Nasdaq Composite Index rose 2.6% or 60 points to finish at 2,281 and the S&P 500 rose 28 points to 1,098. The rise was driven by an industry report that pending home sales were up 6% in April. However commentators have noted that this is probably as a result of buying activity ahead of the expiry of a tax credit.

The FTSE 100 is currently up 85 points to 5,237 with miners in particular helping the index. For example Rio Tinto is up 3.5% to £32.47. BP (BP.) bounced this morning following news that progress to cut off the flow of oil had progressed after a jammed cutting saw had been dislodged at the well head. After being as high as 4.5% up at 450p, it is now 15p higher at 444p. Dow futures are up 26 points.

Sunday, May 16, 2010

Portfolio review of the week May 16th 2010

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down up to 200 points on Friday but finished the day down 162 or 1.5% at 10,620. Despite Friday's weakness, on the week, the Dow Industrials rose 2.3% , the S&P 500 rose 2.2% to finish at 1,136 and the Nasdaq composite rose 3.6% to 2,347. The FTSE 100 rose 2.7% on the week, despite Friday's fall of 170 points to close at 5,263.

After the announcement of the 720 billion euro ($1 trillion) European Union/IMF bail out at the beginning of the week and a large relief rally after heavy falls at the end of the week before, the markets remained increasingly under pressure as the days passed.  Real concerns began to surface that the eurozone may not be able to get its debt under control within slowing economic activity to a snail's pace.

The Contrarian Investor UK portfolio took the opportunity to sell positions initiated during the market weakness the week before when the eurozone bail out euphoria hit on Monday. So Coal of Africa (CZA) and Ithaca Energy (IAE) were both sold at a profit. I am now again sitting largely on the sidelines with the majority of my equity holding in GW Pharma.

GW Pharma (GWP) - Despite the volatile week on the markets, GWP's share price continued to make good progress. The shares rose over 10p or 8.7% on the week to finish at 127p as the company is due to make its interim results announcement on Thursday and an update on the regulatory approval status of multiple sclerosis drug, Sativex, is eagerly awaited. I continue to hold this a core position since it is likely that Sativex will be launched by partner Bayer Schering in June barring any regulatory set backs but this seems unlikely given the update given by the company in March.

Thursday, May 6, 2010

Market stabilises after sell-off

After further falls this morning, the FTSE 100 is currently up 24 points at 5,361 after being down as much as 80 points and DOW futures are up 22 at 10,893. Unfortunately long positions in the FTSE and DOW were stopped out with the falls this morning and yesterday, illustrating the volatility of these markets and the difficulty in playing these short term movements.

Coal of Africa (CZA) has finally moved into positive territory after falling from around 150p to below 120p in less than a week on the general commodity sell off.  My expectation was that CZA would not fall below 120p given the imminent main market listing.  The shares are currently flat at 124p.

It has been reassuring that GW pharma (GWP) has not moved down despite the large market sell off and it is currently up 1.5p to 120p. I am waiting with baited breath for news of Sativex national approval in the UK and Spain.

Wednesday, May 5, 2010

More stock market falls as euro zone worries persist

The FTSE 100 is currently down 50 points to 5,349 and Dow Industrials futures are down 60 points at 10,872 as continuing worries over the health of the euro zone dominate. Investors are concerned that Greece's problems may extend to Spain and Portugal. A national strike in Greece has also not helped sentiment with riots breaking out and flights grounded out of Athens during the afternoon.

The U.S. April ADP employment report also came in slightly light of expectations which has not helped sentiment.

Prudential (PRU) fell 2% to £5.48 as it announced a delay in a rights issue to fund the buy out of  AIG's Asia unit AIA in a $35.5 billion acquisition as the FSA questioned the capital adequacy of the combined company.

Tuesday, May 4, 2010

Stocks get hammered on both sides of Atlantic

The FTSE 100 finished down 142 points or 2.5% at 5,411 as investors fretted that Greece’s debt crisis could spread to other euro zone members, particularly Portugal and Spain. The DOW Jones Industrials dropped as much as 270 points this afternoon and is currently down 243 points at 10,907. Tech stocks in the U.S. fared even worse with the Nasdaq composite currently down 77 points or 3% to 2,421 with Google (GOOG) down 4.5% to $506 and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) down 7% at 8.6%. The falls in the U.S. were despite upbeat quarterly earnings updates from pharmaceutical companies, Merck (MRK) and Pfizer (PFE). Commodity stocks were hit earlier in the day as news of an Australian mining super tax emerged over the weekend.