Another dreadful day for the Contrarian Investor UK portfolio with all the stocks down and with the oil stocks feeling the pain despite the rising oil price. It was nice to see Bowleven finally rebound to finish up 2% at 313p after falling below £3 this morning. I couldn't resist a top up at £3 with so much news to come from its Cameroon Sapele-1 well and other drilling activities. As for Rockhopper, I am gob smacked it is now at 232p after yet another 6% fall so I am well down on this. Fortunately there is no rush to sell at these levels, i'm holding firm for the results of the 14/10-4 well in mid-March. Crazy that its dropped £1.50 since the 14-10/3 well result and yet Goldman Sachs has its target price over £6. Institution selling plus private investors fearing for their lives. What's with the nonsense about a Sea Lion duster!! What next? Glad i derisked on Xcite last week with anothet 9p fall. Had far too much in Xcite until a couple of weeks ago. Shame I put some of it in Rockhopper, we're all human!!!
Contrarian Investor UK invests mainly in UK FTSE and AIM listed shares. Like famous contrarians, Warren Buffett and Anthony Bolton, he likes to take a different view to the crowd of investors. He prefers the short term, possibly speculative trade, to the long term hold and takes the view that it's about "buy and research" not "buy and hold"! This blog tracks Contrarian Investor UK's thoughts on the stockmarket and his portfolio's trades. Move against the herd with the Contrarian Investor UK!
Trades and observations from a British contrarian stock investor
Tuesday, February 22, 2011
Sea of red today as fear stalks market
Another dreadful day for the Contrarian Investor UK portfolio with all the stocks down and with the oil stocks feeling the pain despite the rising oil price. It was nice to see Bowleven finally rebound to finish up 2% at 313p after falling below £3 this morning. I couldn't resist a top up at £3 with so much news to come from its Cameroon Sapele-1 well and other drilling activities. As for Rockhopper, I am gob smacked it is now at 232p after yet another 6% fall so I am well down on this. Fortunately there is no rush to sell at these levels, i'm holding firm for the results of the 14/10-4 well in mid-March. Crazy that its dropped £1.50 since the 14-10/3 well result and yet Goldman Sachs has its target price over £6. Institution selling plus private investors fearing for their lives. What's with the nonsense about a Sea Lion duster!! What next? Glad i derisked on Xcite last week with anothet 9p fall. Had far too much in Xcite until a couple of weeks ago. Shame I put some of it in Rockhopper, we're all human!!!
Monday, February 21, 2011
Sense of realism finally hits stock markets
After all the worrying developments from the Middle East, rising inflation concerns both here and in China, oil above $100 a barrel, a bloated U.S. Deficit, Eurozone debt worries and weakening consumer sentiment it was always a surprise that the FTSE was still above 6,000 and the S&P 500 hit a level double its March 2009 low last week. The Ftse 100 fell 64 points today to 6,019 with the big banks falling nearly 4% over worries about European debt. U.S. markets were closed due to President's day.
The Contrarian Investor UK portfolio got a battering with Bowleven dropping to 307p, a pound of its recent highs and Rockhopper finishing at 250p, a drop of close to 140p in the last 3 weeks. Xcite continues to drift lower as we await the CPR document to 344p, it was trading at 400p to buy less than 2 weeks ago on takeover rumours. Now the rumours are more of a 350p institutional placing. Its been a bad month, roll on March!
Saturday, February 19, 2011
Portfolio review of the week - 19th February 2011
Violence is escalating in Bahrain between Sunni Muslim rulers and its Shiite majority population. Though ICE Brent for April was slightly lower at $102.52, after trading from $100.73 to $103.50. WTI U.S. crude finished at $86, down 0.2%.
Despite a strong oil price this week, the Contrarian Investor UK portfolio has suffered a second week of weakness. Its been a week of selling as I have de-leveraged on Xcite Energy (XEL) and sold my stake in Angel Mining.
Xcite Energy (XEL) - Xcite lost 29p or nearly 8% this week to finish at 353p as rumours continue to grow of a fund raising at around 350p to accompany the CPR (Competent Persons Report) which will move contingent resources to proven reserves and allow field development to begin. Though the CPR is expected to be positive, giving reserves of 225-250 million barrels of oil for the Bentley field, at least £200 million in shares is likely to be placed with institutions. With the price spiking to close to 400p last week on takeover rumours and with the likelihood of share price weakness, I took the opportunity to sell some of the holding to allow funds for acquisitions of other shares in the case of a market fall.
Bowleven (BLVN) - Bowleven dropped yet another 3.2% this week with news from the Sapele 1 side track several weeks away. At 318p, this appears bargain basement given the resources already discovered in Cameroon but sales by the BT Pension fund have helped move down the price. Frustrating given the upside potential in this share and it is now 9p below the last placing in October 2010.
Rockhopper (RKH) - Rockhopper dropped another 5% this week with the impact of the market disappointment from the 14/10-3 North Falklands basin well still being felt. The spudding of 14/10-4 which is much closer to the SeaLion discovery is due any day. On fundamentals Rockhopper now looks very cheap. Its market capitalisation of £682 million, means that with £200 million in the bank deducted, Sea Lion's 170 million barrels are valued at just over $4 a barrel with no upside whatsoever. 14/10-3 is likely to add 40 million barrels to the discovery alone. Painful to be down on this one, but I believe patience will be rewarded and buyers will return with 7 wells yet to be drilled and a high COS (probability of success) on the new well.
Angel Mining (ANGM) - I lost patience with Angel Mining after we went into the 3rd week of February with no news from their Nalulaq gold mine. In my view no news is bad news, so I sold. Good long term prospects but things are very tight on cash flow and the last thing investors need is a cash call or increase in the SEDA (equity drawdown agreement).
Weatherly International (WTI) - Good to see copper miner Weatherly bounce on Friday to 12.4p (but still 5% down on the week) on news that Blackrock Smaller Companies has built a 7% share. This doesn't surprise since the constantly widening spread seemed to indicate the the market makers were playing some sort of game to accomodate some large block buys. Its good to see Blackrock involved to a greater extent a long with Gartmore as production ramps up in this really exciting Namibian copper company. I am sure that we won't be seeing 12p for long with Copper at record highs and so much news to come from WTI in the coming months. I put a big slug into my SIPP pension plan earlier in the week because the risk/reward was excellent at less than 12p.
Wednesday, February 2, 2011
FTSE back to 6,000 mark on manufacturing data
On the Contrarian Investor UK portfolio front its been a stable but uninteresting day. Every stock finished up, but by relatively small percentages. Interesting that Rockhopper (RKH) finished in positive territory after a sell off this morning and Xcite had some relatively big buys at the close. By generally nothing much to report. Hopefully some good RNS's to get my teeth stuck into tomorrow! Sorry to readers that there's nothing earth shattering to write about.
Monday, January 31, 2011
Good start to 2011 in U.S. and Contrarian, not so bright for FTSE 100
Sunday, January 30, 2011
Portfolio review of the week - 30th January 2011
The issues in Egypt drove up oil by 5% to $89 (see previous post: http://contrarianinvestoruk.blogspot.com/2011/01/oil-surges-on-egypt-issues.html) and sentiment in the U.K. wasn't helped by news that a U.K. consumer confidence index dropped eight points in January to -29, the lowest figure since March 2009 and only the sixth time in 35 years it has dropped by so much. Despite the oil price surge, oil stocks were mainly in the red.
The fall in the markets was overdue since after 8 weeks of rises on the U.S. markets, a correction was to be expected and the Egyptian situation was the catalyst for a sell off and profit taking. Further volatility can be expected this week and at times like this opportunities for buying can be excellent as uncertainty and the bears take hold of sentiment. 2011 will be a volatile year in the markets.
Wednesday, January 26, 2011
DOW JONES moves over 12,000 for the first time since mid 2008
Thursday, January 20, 2011
FTSE 100 gets a good pasting after China worries
Bay day for parts of the portfolio (Sirius, Bowleven, Imagination Tech) as technology and oil stocks were hit hard. On the positive side, Angel mining stayed flat after a weak start and largest holding Xcite finished the day up 7.5p (after rising as much as 16p) in the early afternoon.
Rising commodity prices are beginning to take their toll on some sectors. EasyJet (EZJ) dropped16%, the most in 6 1/2 years, after it said its first-half loss may double after increasing fuel costs due to the high oil price rose and poor weather caused flights to be canceled. Pretax losses for the six months to March 31 will be around £160 million compared with £78.7 million a year earlier. Associated British Foods (ABF) and Dominoes Pizza (DOM), dropped 3% and 6% respectively on fears of the impact of rising food ingredient prices. Prices of many commodities continue to rocket to multi year highs due to bad weather, speculation and the effect of the falling dollar (as many of these commodities are sold in US dollars). Ultimately, this may feed through to rising retail inflation and rising interest rates which will curtail economic growth.
As I predicted in my forecast for 2011, the year would be choppy with many opportunities to buy on corrections and many opportunities to sell on market peaks (see my post on the FTSE and DOW for 2011 http://contrarianinvestoruk.blogspot.com/2011/01/prediction-for-ftse-100-and-dow.html)
Thursday, January 6, 2011
Optimism continues on US jobs data
As I mentioned on a previous post, when sentiment is this strong, I tend to stay on the sidelines. As Warren Buffett once said “We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful.”. There is a little too much greed in the air for my liking. I know a correction will come, it might be days or weeks, but this is the time I will be buying, not now. Sure opportunities will be missed on these momentum trades, but I know I can sleep at night buying on dips rather than
on peaks. When the Sunday newspapers are telling everyone to get on the equity bandwagon my advice is to be cautious.
Sunday, July 4, 2010
Portfolio review of the week July 4th 2010
The last time U.S. markets fell every day during a week was in October 2008 following the collapse of Lehman Brothers. On Friday, U.S. employment data disappointed with nonfarm payrolls falling by 125,000 in June, compared with 430,000 jobs created in May, as the number of temporary census workers dropped by 225,000. The unemployment rate fell to 9.5%, the lowest rate since July last year and down from 9.7% in May. U.S. factory orders declined in May, posting the largest drop in 14 months as transportation related orders declined heavily.Overall economic data for the week was below expectations which helped fuel the sell off. Overall investors are struggling to find reasons to buy stocks and technical investors are closely looking whether the S&P 500 will breach the key 1000 level during July.
Commodity stocks were weak for most of last week as worries about a U.S. and European double dip recession and a potentially slowing Chinese economy hit sentiment. On Friday, this negativity was partially reversed by the the Australian government’s decision to replace the resources ‘Super Tax’ with a less onerous alternative called the Mineral Resource Rent Tax (MRRT) which would apply to iron ore and coal from July 2012. Bank stocks were also moved down by renewed fears about sovereign debt in the euro zone.
The reversal in sentiment during the second quarter of 2010 has been significant with falls of around 10% in most indices wiping out gains made during the first quarter. The FTSE 100 has fallen more than 13% since the start of the year, with BP contributing a fall of 200 points in the index all by itself. Whereas investors thought the economic recovery was assured during the early part of 2010, now it all looks very different. With governments implementing tough austerity budgets to bring their deficits under control and the the effects of the Chinese stimulus package beginning to wane the rest of 2010 looks less rosy.
With all this negative sentiment, the Contrarian Investor UK portfolio has begun to find value again in some sectors. With ITV dropping below 50p, a purchase was made for the portfolio. Though positions were aggressively trimmed during Q1 to take advantage of the gains, holdings in Ithaca Energy (IAE) and Coal of Africa (CZA) have performed particularly poorly during the last 2 weeks. These remain good quality stocks were the energy and commodity sectors have been hit. Overall I am not taking an aggressive position on the long or short side but any further large falls will be seen as a buying opportunity. I would be surprised if the Dow fell below 9,000 since we are not in 2008 territory by any means.
Friday, June 11, 2010
German court decision and euro strength helps markets
The FTSE 100 is currently up 48 points to 5,179. But the good news was tempered this morning when figures from the Office of National Statistics show a 0.4% fall in manufacturing production in April. There were expectations of a 0.5% rise after a 2.2% increase in March. Producer prices rose by 0.3% in May, against expectations of a 0.5% rise demonstrating that manufacturers are starting to struggle to push through price increases to buyers.
BP (BP.) is currently up 7% or 28p or 393p as sentiment turned more positive about the medium term impact on dividend payments after the steep falls earlier in the week. Unfortunately the portfolio was unable to benefit as the positon was sold yesterday at a profit but a frustrating not to take part in today's rise after the falls to around 340p yesterday morning.
Thursday, June 10, 2010
Wall Street reverses and finishes below 10,000
The FTSE 100 is currently down 31 points to 5,057 after moving below 5,000 in early trades.
Wednesday, June 9, 2010
Markets back in positive territory on Bernanke comments
Monday, June 7, 2010
Continued economic worries move down stocks
BP (BP.) moved against the trend with a 5p rise to £4.38 as they reported some success in stemming the flow of oil from the damaged well in the Gulf of Mexico.
Saturday, June 5, 2010
Portfolio review of the week June 5th 2010
Industrial and infrastructure stocks (e.g. Caterpillar CAT down 5.5% at $57.7) were hit particularly hard as a weakening euro means that revenues will be hit as the sales are translated back to dollars on currency conversion, plus any weakening of the European economies will hold back sales volumes. In addition, a weakening of commodity prices such as oil (which dropped over 4% to $71) and banking fears hit financials, energy and commodity stocks - Conoco Philipps (COP) was down 3.7% to $50, Barclays (BARC) was down 4.7% to £2.88, BHP Billioton (BHP) dropped 3.7% to £17.71.
The key reason for the decline was that U.S. non farm payrolls rose by only 431,000 last month, short of expectations for a rise of 515,000 jobs. Most of the rise was due to temporary census staff hiring (which created 411,000 jobs) and only 41,000 private sector jobs were created (against 218,000 in April). There were also downward revisions to payrolls in March and April, both 22,000 lower at 208,000 and 290,000 respectively. The unemployment rate dropped to 9.7% in May from 9.9% the previous month, in line with expectations.
On top of this the euro got a battering with a fall below the $1.20 level against the dollar being the lowest point for four years as fears that Hungary may suffer a Greek style debt crisis emerged. Hungary is in the European union but not part of the euro. However, after the concerns about Spain last week, worries about Hungary have given investors plenty of reasons to be pessimistic about the state of European finances and the health of its banks. A spokesman for Viktor Orban, the Hungarian Prime Minister, suggested that his country had only a slim chance of avoiding a Greek-style debt crisis. Peter Szijjarto, the Prime Minister’s spokesman, said that his Government was “ready to avoid the path that Greece took ... After realising what reality is, we will not hesitate to act.” The potential exposure to any Hungarian default by European markets is a stark reminder that the write-down's of the banks may not be over.
The Contrarian Investor UK portfolio has had limited trading over the last 2 weeks due to holiday. But positions were initiated in Coal of Africa (CZA) at 104p and BP at £4.19. The Coal of Africa position is retained but BP was sold on Thursday at £4.50. Short term trades were all put in play on Barclays (BARC), Man Group (MAN) and Prudential (PRU) which were all closed within a day or two as the market rebounded from the market falls late in May. The falls of last week have put some interesting opportunities on the table and I will take these on any further weakness during the early part of next week especially if the FTSE moves below 5000 again. Any fall in the U.S. S&P 500 below the key technical 1,050 level will be watched with interest.
It was disappointing not to be involved in the huge spike in the Falkland Islands oil shares yesterday after Rockhopper (RKH) issued a very positive technical update on its Sealion oil find in the North Falklands basin. RKH finished up 33% at £3.19, Desire Petroleum (DES) was up 22% at £1.00 and Falklands Oil and Gas (FOGL) was 10.5% at £2.06. Rockhopper upgraded the size of the find to 242 million barrels recoverable with further increases likely. After seeing the price drop to below a £1.00 on Wednesday on false rumours of a poor quality oil discovery (and possibly some sort of manipulation), buyers at this point have seen a 300% plus increase. After having my finger on the trigger to buy at these levels I am frustrated that I didn't proceed. Nice profit missed. It is incredible to think that Rockhopper was trading in the 35p range as little as a few weeks ago before the results of the Sealion appraisal well. So continued holders are nearly at the "ten bagger"stage. You don't see too many of these trading opportunities and I am sure that many have profited nicely. I am also sure that many lost a lot of money during the "flash crash" of Wednesday. It has been positive to see some good profits in these Falkland Islands shares, but what could have been if I'd had the nerve!?
Thursday, June 3, 2010
Markets looking strong today after rise in U.S. last night
The FTSE 100 is currently up 85 points to 5,237 with miners in particular helping the index. For example Rio Tinto is up 3.5% to £32.47. BP (BP.) bounced this morning following news that progress to cut off the flow of oil had progressed after a jammed cutting saw had been dislodged at the well head. After being as high as 4.5% up at 450p, it is now 15p higher at 444p. Dow futures are up 26 points.
Sunday, May 16, 2010
Portfolio review of the week May 16th 2010
Thursday, May 6, 2010
Market stabilises after sell-off
Coal of Africa (CZA) has finally moved into positive territory after falling from around 150p to below 120p in less than a week on the general commodity sell off. My expectation was that CZA would not fall below 120p given the imminent main market listing. The shares are currently flat at 124p.
It has been reassuring that GW pharma (GWP) has not moved down despite the large market sell off and it is currently up 1.5p to 120p. I am waiting with baited breath for news of Sativex national approval in the UK and Spain.
Wednesday, May 5, 2010
More stock market falls as euro zone worries persist
Prudential (PRU) fell 2% to £5.48 as it announced a delay in a rights issue to fund the buy out of AIG's Asia unit AIA in a $35.5 billion acquisition as the FSA questioned the capital adequacy of the combined company.