Timing is everything for GW Pharma shareholders today

After moving up 9% to 156p early in the day, GW Pharma (GWP) succumbed to some heavy profit taking and finished down 6.4% at 132p. News from the company's commercial partner Bayer that Sativex would be priced at £11 a day on the NHS with expectations of sales in the UK of around £11 million and £50 million in Europe were at the bottom end of some analysts expectations and this probably served to drive sentiment the wrong way. It was certainly a case of excellent timing today for those shareholders able to sell their stock over 150p given it lasted for less than an hour. As I said on the blog yesterday, I do not see catalysts to push the share price much higher until tangible sales of Sativex come through which are ahead of expectations, since the larger milestone payments relating to European approval are now in the bag.

Portfolio review of the week June 19th 2010

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 16 points, or 0.16%, to 10,450 on Friday. The index climbed 2.4% on the week. Sentiment was helped by a report from Caterpillar (CAT) that it had achieved a 38% year-over-year increase in machinery sales in Asia for May giving signals that demand in the region was still robust despite concerns about the strength of the recovery. The Nasdaq Composite rose 3, or 0.1%, to 2,309 on Friday, making seven straight days of gains for the index. For the week the index was up 3%. The Standard & Poor's 500 index gained 1.5, or 0.13%, to 1,117 and climbed 2.37% this week. The FTSE 100 failed to achieve eight straight days of gains with a fall of 3 points to 5,251 on Friday, giving a rise of 1.6% for the week. The index was boosted by a partial recovery in BP (BP.) during the week after the company agreed to ring fence $20 billion in an escrow account to cover potential liabilities from the Gulf of Mexico spill and said that it would suspend its dividend giving reassurance that the company could cover the rising costs.

Overall sentiment improved considerably last week, with fears about the health of the European debt situation and continued Asian growth forgotten for now. However, I am sceptical about the strength of this rebound as these concerns have not disappeared by any means and the continued rise in the gold price to $1,258 an ounce gives an indication that investors continue to be concerned about the strength of the key currencies, notably the dollar and euro, with the impact that debt will have on future inflation prospects. Whereas investors were happy to park cash in dollars in the past, gold now seems to be the preferred safe haven. Whether the gold price continues to rise unabated is another matter, given its 35% increase in the last year.  With reservations about the stock markets at this time, I am continuing to take profits on these upward moves and buy on the dips. I await the next major panic selling event when I am bulk up my holdings. The timings of any lurch downwards is always the uncertainty in trading but I do not feel inclined to put all my cash to work right now. The U.S. second quarter earnings season in July will a good opportunity to increase my trading exposure.

The Contrarian Investor UK portfolio is a little light this week after some positions were sold. I wait for now for the right buy points.

GW Pharma (GWP) - After 9 years  of waiting, GW Pharma share holders were finally rewarded on Friday with the news that Sativex had been approved by the U.K. regulatory agency the MHRA. A press conference will be held next week jointly by Bayer and GW to formally announce the launch of the product. The shares rose 9.3% to 141p after a 5% increase on Thursday, making it a 19p or 15% rise for the week. Although I believe that Sativex should be a commercially successful product for the company, I do not foresee that there are significant short term catalysts to boost the share price much further than the 140-150p range. For example, final approval in Spain is expected to take several months more and European roll out will not occur until early 2011. Furthermore, there is a good possibility of profit taking moving the price down . For this reason, I decided to sell my final holding in GWP on Friday. Trading in and out of this stock has proved to be an excellent investment over the last few months, illustrating that for these smaller companies, short term trading can produce better results than buy and hold. 

Coal of Africa (CZA) - Following the £55 million fund raising earlier in the week at 110p, the shares finished the week at 113p, a rise of 8% on the week. I continue to hold for a rebound in this stock after topping up at 105p.

Ithaca Energy (IAE) - IAE finished broadly flat for the week at 148p despite a relatively upbeat AGM where it was confirmed that the company had $50 million of cash with no debt as well as a rising production outlook. Continuing to hold.

ITV (ITV) - After a nice move up to over 58p this week as sentiment recovered and revenues get a boost from the World cup I have taken profits in this stock. A move back to 51-52p would signal a buy back opportunity.

RockHopper (RKH) and Falkland Oil and Gas (FOGL) - After assessing the opportunity for the Toroa prospect which is currently beng drilled by FOGL, I have decided to divest my holding. After the good fortune on Rockhopper earlier in the year I have decided not to push my luck. The geological structure on the Toroa well is not linked to the Sea lion Rockhopper find. I continue to hold RKH.

GW pharma sees price action as Sativex approval finally looms

GW pharma (GWP) moved up around 10% early this afternoon but fell back to close up 5% at 128p. Although volumes were not dramatic on the buy side, this move is presumably linked to imminent Sativex approval in the U.K. and/or market makers adjusting bid/offer levels on a shortage of stock for a larger buyer waiting in the wings i.e. encouraging profit taking by smaller shareholders as their positions increased in value.

GW Pharma moves down as Sativex UK approval awaited

GW Pharma (GWP) has continued its downward move since hitting the 130p mark at the interim results in April. Lack of buying pressure means that it looks like the price is being walked down by a few pence a day to its current 114p by the market makers and further weakness may be evident before final approval and launch of Sativex in the U.K.. The company expects these milestones to be hit by the end of June. After several sales of GWP around the interims and then around a week ago in the £1.20-1.30 range, I continue to hold but with a reduced number on this downward drift. Any large fall back to the £1.00 level will be a buying opportunity and chance to top up. As we saw following the regulatory announcement in March, GW can be volatile and easily trade in a 30p range on no news.

Limited posts on Contrarian Investor UK blog

As I'm holiday for a couple of weeks, postings on Contrarian Investor UK might be few and far between for the next couple of weeks due to limited internet access. Sorry readers!

p.s. nice to see Rockhopper (RKH) bounce back over £2.20. Profits taken. At £1.70 it was a steal! Half my GW pharma (GWP) position was sold at £1.29 following the interims, the rest will be retained for the Sativex approval news in June.

Rockhopper sells off hard as market uncertainty hits small caps

Rockhopper exploration (RKH) dropped 18% today to 173p despite news from the company that it will know in 10-15 days how big its discovery on the Sea Lion prospect will be after initial results indicated a substantial reserve. The well itself is being suspended for future testing. The company is now valued at only £300 million, £70 million more than fellow Falkland Islands oil explorer Desire Petroleum (DES) which seems unwarranted given RKH has struck oil and DES has to date not.

The market panic created by German Chancellor Merkel's comments about the euro is exactly the sort of negativity that Contrarian Investor UK likes and several good opportunities have been thrown up in the panic. After buying some Rockhopper today on the sell off, I will be looking to add to the position on any further weakness given the expected news in just over a week. Given the news released to date from sea lion and the heavy institutional buying since the oil discovery (for example by relatively conservative Ignis which owns 2.7 million shares and 4 million contracts for difference) Rockhopper seems very good value at these levels, particularly in comparison with the other Falkland Island drillers. The greatest profits are to be made when others are hitting the sell button!

It's GW Pharma (GWP) interims time tomorrow, which I await with great expectation. The shares finished up 1p today at 130p.

Portfolio review of the week May 16th 2010

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down up to 200 points on Friday but finished the day down 162 or 1.5% at 10,620. Despite Friday's weakness, on the week, the Dow Industrials rose 2.3% , the S&P 500 rose 2.2% to finish at 1,136 and the Nasdaq composite rose 3.6% to 2,347. The FTSE 100 rose 2.7% on the week, despite Friday's fall of 170 points to close at 5,263.

After the announcement of the 720 billion euro ($1 trillion) European Union/IMF bail out at the beginning of the week and a large relief rally after heavy falls at the end of the week before, the markets remained increasingly under pressure as the days passed.  Real concerns began to surface that the eurozone may not be able to get its debt under control within slowing economic activity to a snail's pace.

The Contrarian Investor UK portfolio took the opportunity to sell positions initiated during the market weakness the week before when the eurozone bail out euphoria hit on Monday. So Coal of Africa (CZA) and Ithaca Energy (IAE) were both sold at a profit. I am now again sitting largely on the sidelines with the majority of my equity holding in GW Pharma.

GW Pharma (GWP) - Despite the volatile week on the markets, GWP's share price continued to make good progress. The shares rose over 10p or 8.7% on the week to finish at 127p as the company is due to make its interim results announcement on Thursday and an update on the regulatory approval status of multiple sclerosis drug, Sativex, is eagerly awaited. I continue to hold this a core position since it is likely that Sativex will be launched by partner Bayer Schering in June barring any regulatory set backs but this seems unlikely given the update given by the company in March.

GW Pharma has positive momentum as interim results beckon

Last night, GW pharma (GWP),  confirmed its interim results would be next Thursday (May 20th). It is likely that expectation of updates on the regulatory approval status of Sativex in the Europe has begun to move the stock and it is currently up around 5% to 126p to buy. In addition it is hoped that further news about the U.S. FDA application for cancer pain will be available. At 126p the stock is still below the level it reached in March when the last regulatory update was given and I am hoping that we will see a level much higher than this once Sativex has passed all the hurdles for the registration in Europe. The company were confident that the drug would be approved by end of Q2 i.e. June at the last major announcement.

Portfolio review of the week May 8th 2010

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 140 points, 1.3%, to close the week at 10,380, despite the Labour Department report showing job growth in April at its fastest pace in four years in the U.S.. The index was was off 5.7% for the week, its worst performance since March 2009, losing 772 points in 4 days. The Nasdaq Composite Index was down 54 points or 2.3% to 2,266. The S&P 500 fell 17 to finish at 1,111 and showing a fall on the week of 6.4%. The FTSE 100 fell 138 points or 2.8% on Friday to close at 5,123. Over the week the FTSE 100 declined 7.8% or 430 points. Over the past month the index is down 11% or 639 points.

What has gone wrong? Investors continue to worry about Europe's debt crisis, particularly Spain and Portugal's situation after the Greek bail out. The Australian resources super tax didn't help as it hit commodity stocks and signs of a slow down in China made Asian investors nervous. Then albeit a sideline issue, the hung parliament situation in the U.K. has not helped sentiment in this country. My worries about the safety of the market when the DOW had moved over 11,000 and the FTSE 100 was trading in the 5,800+ range have been borne out. When stock markets move up week after week (the DOW gained 8 weeks in a row) a correction is inevitable, though the size and speed of the move down has surprised me.

Despite the heavy falls on both side of the Atlantic, the portfolio has done well this week but only because Falkland Island oil explorer, Rockhopper Exploration (RKH) came good. In fact its performance was exceptional. The other holdings have suffered in the sell off, but GW Pharma (GWP) has held on well considering what the indices have done. However, Contract for difference (CFD) bets on the FTSE 100 and DOW industrials were unsuccessful and fell through stop losses and unfortunately ate into the RKH gains.

Rockhopper Exploration (RKH) - After dropping into the mid 30p zone on Wednesday, the announcement on Thursday that the company had found a substantial oil reservoir on its Sea Lion prospect in the North Falklands Islands basin moved the share price to around 92p by close of play. Then the company issued a further update on the quality of the oil in the reservoir on Friday which confirmed the potential quality of the find. The shares shot up a further 51.5p to 145p. It was a week of trading in and out of RKH on Thursday and Friday with some nice profits made. I sold my final tranche at 125p on Friday. No doubt the shares have further to go as news flow on the analysis of the find continues to flow but I will take my profits for now. A drop yesterday to 84p was certainly a classic market maker shake to scare investors into selling and clearly several did. By the afternoon the shares were up 74%.

Not only it is good news for RKH shareholders but clearly good news for UK PLC. There is a talk now of an oil field as large as the North Sea.

GW pharma (GWP) - A good week for GWP as the shares held steady at 116p despite the broader market falls. Awaiting Sativex news which should be due any day now.

Ithaca Energy (IAE) - Despite some good news from the Stella North Sea field in relation to the sidetrack well the shares dropped 25p or 13% this week to finish at 168p. On Friday IAE fell 5% as oil fell to $78 per barrel.

Coal of Africa (CZA) - Coal of Africa shares fell nearly 17% this week to finish at 121p as the global price of coal fell and investors worried about the Australian resources super tax. On Friday CZA confirmed the new Australian tax would have no impact on earnings since they have no sites in Australia. The position initiated at 130p is under water but the prospects look very positive for the medium term especially with the London main market listing due Q2.

Market stabilises after sell-off

After further falls this morning, the FTSE 100 is currently up 24 points at 5,361 after being down as much as 80 points and DOW futures are up 22 at 10,893. Unfortunately long positions in the FTSE and DOW were stopped out with the falls this morning and yesterday, illustrating the volatility of these markets and the difficulty in playing these short term movements.

Coal of Africa (CZA) has finally moved into positive territory after falling from around 150p to below 120p in less than a week on the general commodity sell off.  My expectation was that CZA would not fall below 120p given the imminent main market listing.  The shares are currently flat at 124p.

It has been reassuring that GW pharma (GWP) has not moved down despite the large market sell off and it is currently up 1.5p to 120p. I am waiting with baited breath for news of Sativex national approval in the UK and Spain.

Portfolio review of the week May 1st 2010

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 158 points (1.4%) last night to finish at 11,009, as financials fell heavily following the downgrade of Goldman Sachs (GS) to sell. Goldman fell 15 dollars to finish at $145, a fall of over 9%. The Dow ended the week down 1.8%, the first weekly fall in 9 weeks and the worst week since January. The S&P 500 fell 2.5% to finish at 1,187, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 2% to finish at 2,461. The FTSE 100 closed at 5,553 yesterday, a fall of 65 points on the day and a decline of 170 points or 3% for the week as Barclays (BARC) disappointed due to a benign performance in its retail division.

U.S. GDP in the first quarter came in at 3.2%, meeting analyst expectations. The number was driven by an increase consumer spending  in the first quarter and the core inflation rate fell to its lowest number in 51 years.

The oil spill resulting from BP's well in the Gulf of Mexico appears to be worsening and the news from the White House that new domestic offshore oil drilling will be on hold until the investigation of the spill is complete drove down offshore drilling stocks. The operator of the rig Transocean (RIG) finished down 8% at $72, whilst sector peer Noble Corp (NE) dropped 4% to $39.5. 

This week was a good week for the portfolio despite the fall in the overall market. I continue to watch Coal of Africa (CZA) for an entry point which fell this week to below 150p following its quarterly update.

GW Pharma (GWP) - A broker initiation from Rodman and Renshaw with an outperform rating and 300p target sent the company's share's up 10% on Thursday which was quickly following by a 6% fall on Friday to finish at 118p. Some of the holding was sold on Friday morning and bought back later in the day as the price slipped further. News flow is expected over the next 2-3 weeks, particularly the UK/Spanish national application phase for Sativex and then we have the interim results to look forward to on May 18th.

Ithaca Energy (IAE) - Ithaca finished the week at 193p, around flat for the week. Union Securities has issued a broker report with a $4.00 near term target. The report expects the company to produce 5,100 barrels of oil per day in 2010, field development of Athena, Stella, Carna and Polly in the North Sea is expected to increase production 500% within four years. They also say that the Company trades at a large discount to its proven and probable asset value of $5.38.

RockHopper (RKH) - A poor week for Rockhopper with the stock dropping below 40p during the week before finishing at 42.5p, a 9% drop in the last 7 days. News if expected from the Sea Lion prospect in the next couple of weeks. A small holding in RKH, but volatile.

Rodman and Renshaw put 300p target on GW Pharma

Broker Rodman and Renshaw have initiated coverage of GW Pharma (GWP) with a Market Outperform rating and a 300p 12 month target against the current share price of 122p.

They estimate GW to be profitable in 2012 and estimate the company to earn £0.40/share in 2014. Applying a 20X multiple and a 30% annual discount rate they derive a 12-month target price of £3/share (300p).

This moved the share price up 10% yesterday to close at 127p. Profit takers have moved in today and Contrarian Investor UK took the opportunity to top slice the holding with major news not due for a couple weeks yet and the key date being the interim results on May 18th. The shares are currently down 8.5p or 7% to 121p.

Portfolio review of the week April 24th 2010

The U.S. stock market climbed to a 17 month high on Friday after strong new-home sales and good earnings from American Express, marking the Dow's 8th straight week of gains. New home sales posted their largest year-over-year increase in nearly five years. The Dow Jones Industrial average rose 70 points to 11204, its highest close since Sept. 19, 2008. For the week, it climbed 1.7%. The Dow has now had its longest weekly winning streak since a run that ended in January 2004, more than 6 years ago.

The Nasdaq Composite rose 11 to 2530, its highest close since June 2008 led by rises in energy stocks. It rose 2% on the week, like the Dow showing its eighth-straight weekly gain. The S&P 500 climbed 9, to 1,217, its highest close since Sept. 19, 2008.

The FTSE 100 finished up 58, at 5,724 despite the disappointing GDP data as a stabilisation of the Greek debt situation was anticipated. The index was down 0.3% for the week.

GW Pharma (GWP) - No news from GW pharma this week as further information on the Sativex European licence is anticipated in May. It finished flat at 110p. Patience with this one.

Ithaca Energy (IAE) - Ithaca moved up 17p, 10% yesterday to finish the week at 189p on new that it had secured a $140 million funding facility to exploit the Stella North Sea field and acquire other assets in the area. The future looks very bright for this company. The stock moved 17% higher on the week with momentum continuing to look very positive.

Rockhopper (RKH) - Position initiated in the Falkland Islands driller as the stock slipped to 45p this week after last week's spudding of the Sea Lion prospect. 

Portfolio review of the week April 17th 2010

Markets fell heavily yesterday after consistent gains earlier in the week, as Goldman Sachs (GS) posted a 13% drop to $160.7 on fraud charges brought by the Securities and Exchange Commission. The drop was the biggest one day fall in the stock's history. Technology stocks were also in the red with Google (GOOG) dropping $45 dollars or 7.5% to $550 on first quarter results.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished Friday down 125 points, or 1.1%, to 11,018. Despite the fall, the DOW showed its seventh week of gains. The S&P 500 Index fell 19.5 points, or 1.6%, to 1,192, below the key 1,200 technical level. The FTSE 100 index dropped 81 points, to 5,744.

The SEC, has accused Goldman Sachs and a London-based executive director, Fabrice Tourre, of failing to disclose information about a synthetic collateralized-debt obligation (CDO), related to subprime residential mortgage-backed securities. It also is said to have not disclosed the role that hedge fund Paulson & Co played in the portfolio-selection process and the fact that the fund was shorting the CDO. Investor's lost around $1 billion in the investment.

On the portfolio front it has been a relatively quiet week as I have trimmed long positions on the run up. Some shorts on the FTSE 100 and DOW placed yesterday morning could have been extraordinarily profitable following the Goldman news but were unfortunately not closed at the lows of the day. Its a waiting game for Contrarian Investor UK at the moment as I'm not rushing to commit extra funds into this market.

GW Pharma (GWP) - The portfolio's largest holding had a good end to the week with a 4.5% rise yesterday despite the market falls to finish at 114p. I am puzzled at what is driving this gain as the approval of the UK and Spanish national licences are not expected for Sativex for some weeks yet. May and June will be the months where the exciting news flow starts to come so its a question of watch and wait. Hopefully this will move up gradually over the next few weeks as the regulatory update in March hugely de-risked this share.

Nighthawk Energy (HAWK) - A short term trade was placed this week on news of a drilling update and director buys. Position closed at 29p.

Ithaca Energy (IAE ) - Following news from the appraisal well on the Stella field in the North Sea a position was initiated but not in the Contrarian Investor core portfolio as this will be a longer term story.

Portfolio review of the week April 10th 2010

Last night, the Dow Jones Industrials briefly pushed through the 11,000 mark for the first time since September 2008 and finished the week at a 18-month high of 10,997, up 70 points. The Nasdaq Composite Index rose 17 points to 2,454 and the S&P 500 rose 8 to 1,194. In the U.K., the FTSE 100 rose 58 points to finish at 5,771.
It has been a good week for the Contrarian Investor UK portfolio with some excellent profits made and taken in gold miner Norseman Gold (NGL) and the Falkland Islands explorers. After several days of profit taking the portfolio is relatively small and concentrated in GW Pharma but new opportunities are being explored. 

GW Pharma (GWP) - GW pharma continued to drift down this week on small volumes to finished at 109p, down around 4%. At this level it is only a few pence from where it was when the company issued the regulatory update on Sativex spray on March 18th. This update confirmed that there were no major issues outstanding and that UK launch was on track for Q2 2010. As this announcement de-risked the regulatory stage significantly, especially on the issue of efficacy which was the stumbling block at the last submission in 2007, the current share price seems surprisingly low. Less than a month ago investors still had a high risk that the licence application to launch in Europe would fail, now GW pharma are in the situation where all aspects of efficacy, safety and quality has been addressed. I topped up my holding further during the week at 107p and now have a position similar in size to pre-regulatory announcement. Though the share price may drift down further, the upside reward at these levels look good especially with news of licence approval due in May from the UK and Spain.

Falklands Islands Drillers (Desire Petroleum DES, Rockhopper Exploration RKH, Falkland Oil and Gas FOGL) - A volatile week in the Falkland Islands oil stocks was exploited with some nice profits made on FOGL and RKH. Rockhopper had a large move up this week as Desire's Ocean Guardian rig now moved to its Sea Lion prospect in the North Falklands basin with spudding likely any day. I have now sold on my positions at solid profit and will wait for any pull back as a further investment opportunity.

Norseman Gold (NGL) - Australian gold miner Norseman had a very strong move up this week from under 50p to finish the week at 62p. Though fundamentals are good for this company, such a large move up in the Contrarian Investor UK portfolio holding with a buy point in the mid-40p range, profits were taken at the end of the week. Thank you Jim Slater for the tip!

BHP Billiton (BHP) - Short placed on the commodity plays BHP Billiton and Kazakhmys (KAZ) earlier in the week were closed at reasonable profits after the price of copper went over the key $8000 a tonne level. The commodity companies remain good trading opportunities given their volatility.

SSL International (SSL) - Rumours surfaced yet again this week that Reckitt Benckiser (RB.) was considering buying SSL which moved the share price up to a high of 885p. I remain unconvinced by this possibility of a Reckitt buy. By Friday these rumours were discounted and the price had dropped back to 856p. Shorts placed at 885p were closed at a good profit.


Coal of Africa (CZA) - Continue to hold CZA with no news this week.

Steady drop in GW Pharma share price as we await Sativex UK approval

GW Pharma (GWP) dropped today to 112p to buy, around 12% higher than following the announcement of a positive regulatory assessment on the safety, quality, efficacy of Sativex 3 weeks ago. Since approval of the product in multiple sclerosis is more or less assured in May and a UK launch due by end of Q2, the current share price seems to a good opportunity to increase exposure given the fall from close to 130p at the time of the positive clinical trial in cancer pain in early March.  Volume is very light and the share price looks like it is being walked down by the market makers. The question of course is whether the downward trend of 1-2p price falls per day will end. The market cap is only £145 million and a £10 million payment is due from Bayer Schering and £2.5 million from Almirall on licence approval.

Portfolio review of the week 3rd April 2010

Falkland Island Oil Explorers  -Another bullish week on the markets was tempered by the collapse in the Falkland Island oil drillers on Monday as Desire Petroleum (DES) was forced to issue a premature news release on the progress of the Liz well following a report in the Sunday Times that reservoir quality was poor. Another update from Desire on Thursday afternoon indicated that drilling was continuing to greater depths after hydrocarbon shows with  final report due late next week. It seems that there is a significant amount of gas (yet to be confirmed) but oil seems to be elusive to date and given the geographical location and the current world gas price this is clearly not an advantageous position. Desire's share collapsed 50% on Monday to around 50p and have held steady for the rest of the week. Fortunately a holding in Desire was sold the previous week. Position's in Falklands Oil and Gas (FOGL) and Rockhopper (RKH) fell through stop losses on Monday as sentiment turned against the explorers. However, having stabilised later in the day I bought back both as the geological structures are unrelated to Desire's prospect and Rockhopper' s well is due to be drilled next by the Ocean Guardian rig with spudding in early April.

GW Pharma (GWP) - GW Pharma continues to drift downwards following the positive news on Sativex a couple of weeks ago. Things are expected to be quiet until May onwards when an update on national approval from the UK and Spanish regulatory authorities would be expected. The interims are also in May and news on other regional licensing deals outside North America and Europe would be expected as well as the U.S. FDA cancer pain application wit Otsuka Corp.. I sold around 2/3 of my holding on the news and bought back some at 115p. I am monitoring this share closely for a further buying opportunities on a slide back below 110p because May and June news should drive this to well over 130p.

Norseman Gold (NGL) - A position was started in this Australian gold company on Monday. See the previous article, http://contrarianinvestoruk.blogspot.com/2010/03/norseman-gold-looks-solid-australian.html.

Coal of Africa (CZA) - The Coal of Africa position was increased this week as Morgan Stanley increased their share target to 200p  (current 145p) and a full UK market listing is due.

BHP Billiton (BLT) - A contrarian short on BHP Billiton was placed on Thursday morning following a week of strong rises as the rise in commodity stocks seems overcooked.

Genzyme (GENZ) - The position was closed on the rebound to $53.

Micron (MU) - Short term trades at just over $10.2 were made and closed before the quarterly earnings at $10.8

Portfolio review of the week March 27th 2010

The bulls seem unstoppable at the moment with solid gains around the world's stock markets for another week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, ended up 9 points at 10,850 after being as high as 68 points higher. The index was up 1% for the week.  The Dow Industrials, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite all ended with a fourth week of  gains, the longest positive run for all three indexes since the summer of 2009. The FTSE 100 finished down 24 points at 5,703. The index was up 53 points, or nearly 1% for the week.

The market responded positively to the  news that the Euro zone countries had agreed a plan to bail out Greece together with the International Monetary Fund, driving the euro to a 10 month high against the dollar. On Friday afternoon, debt rating agency, Standard & Poor, confirmed it's rating on Greece.

Gw Pharma (GWP -  After last week's strong gains in GW Pharma on a positive regulatory update on Saticex and good trials results for the future U.S. application in cancer pain, the share price has dropped strongly from it's highs close to 130p to finish the week at 113p. This fall came despite Prudential increasing their holding from 10% to 12%. After selling down 3/4 of my holding close to the highs,  Contrarian Investor UK bought back at lower levels. News on the completion of the national phase of the UK and Spanish applications should be available around the time of the May interims so it's a case of sitting tight for now and waiting for further news flow.  Licensing deals in territories outside North America and Europe should also be announced in Q2.

Falkland Island Oil Explorers (Desire Petroleum, Falklands Oil and Gas, Borders and Southern Petroleum, Rockhopper Exploration) - As discussed on a previous post, I have sold my Desire Petroleum (DES) holding and moved into RockHopper Exploration (RKH) and increased my holding in Falkland Oil and Gas (FOGL) in order to be able to use IG Markets CFD guaranteed stops in case things don't go quite to plan next week. Protected trades, limiting any loss to 12.5%, were not possible on Desire for some time. News from the South Atlantic should be due Wednesday onwards on drilling of Desire's Liz field (but perhaps earlier but all conjecture). But it now seems plausible that Desire are testing the well because as a reminder the addendum to the Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) issued in December 2009 stated (http://www.desireplc.co.uk/pdfs/DesireFalklands_EIS_Adndm.pdf), "It is anticipated that the Ocean Guardian semi-submersible rig will be on location for between 18 and 30 days for each we and an additional 7-10 days if the well is tested. The earliest spud date for the first well is 1 February 2010. It is currently proposed to test the wells if hydrocarbons are found. During the well test up to up to 8,000stb/d of oil or 25MMscf/d of gas will be flared dependent on the reservoir fluids encountered and if the reservoir is found to be capable of delivering these rates...". Given it will be 35 days since the Liz prospect "spudded" on Monday (spud was 22nd February 2010), it is possible that Desire are testing the well and they would not be testing if there was nothing substantial in terms of an oil/gas find. On the other hand, drilling to target depth might have been delayed by unforeseen events, which of course is always possible in offshore drilling campaigns. Should be an exciting week either way - keeping my fingers crossed it's not a "duster". 

ITV (ITV) - After a near 10% move upwards this week from 55p to 60p, I took the opportunity to sell off the position. There has been a significant shift upwards from the 50p level in february as Crozier/Norman have taken charge and the advertising market continues to improve.

Coal of Africa (CZA) - A steady move up in CZA to finish the week at 146p as main market listing in the UK is due in the next few weeks. After a wobble, where the share price dropped as much as 7p on rumours that the Vele mine project approval might be compromised by enviromental protestors, the stock recovered to finish broadly flat. Contrarian Investor UK is expecting a move up closer to 200p during Q2. 

ARM (ARM) - Chip designer ARM holdings continued to move up to a 52 week high as tech stocks stay in demand which has squeezed the short. However, the 5% stop loss on the sell has not yet been triggered and on anticipation of a market correction this position may come back in my favour. Holding for now.

SSL International (SSL) - After a positive trading update yesterday (see previous post), SSL moved over the £8 level and triggered a stop loss on the short. This illustrates the problem with shorting shares in this short of market where momentum investors are piling in. With this sort of market, fundamental analysis of a company's value can be for nothing. 

Genzyme (GENZ) -  Pharmaceutical company Genzyme  dropped over 14% in 2 days on concerns over an FDA sanction of a key plans. An initial position was stopped out but I bought back on Thursday night as the stock hit $51. This buy was rewarded with a bounce back on Friday as brokers started saying the FDA related fall had been overdone. Shareholder activist, Carl Icahn remains key to a rejuvenation of this company.

Prudential ups stake in GW Pharma

Prudential have increased their stake in GW Pharma (GWP) from around 10% to just over 12% in the last few days which adds reassurance to the buys put in place yesterday. It now looks increasingly likely that the steep drop yesterday was market maker manipulation, triggering stop losses for private investors to fill the large Pru order.  Certainly looking at the pattern of trades there was no evidence of large sells and the price was forced down to 113p at one point yesterday morning. GWP is now trading up 0.5p at 119p to buy.

8% fall in GW Pharma is buy back opportunity

I have just bought back the GW Pharma position sold on Monday given the current 10p drop in the share price, presumably on a market maker "tree shake" prior to the AGM.