Trades and observations from a British contrarian stock investor

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Showing posts with label weatherly. Show all posts
Showing posts with label weatherly. Show all posts

Monday, March 7, 2011

Markets reverse after Libya worries finally unsettle investors

The FTSE 100 moved into negative territory late on in the day finishing down 16 at 5,974 as Wall Street reversed into the red. Worries that the unrest in Libya could spread to other oil producing states worried investors. If one of the Middle Eastern producers had an interruption in supply we could see oil at over $200 a barrel, with a huge negative impact on global economic growth similar to the oil shock of the 1970's following the Arab-Israeli war.

The Contrarian Investor Uk portfolio had a good day with some good timing of trades. I ditched some Rockhopper positions early on whilst still up (finished down 5%) to increase my holding in Weatherly and Solomon Gold. Both were down in the morning but SOLG finished up 7.5% and WTI finished flat. At 12p Weatherly was a great top up opportunity despite the drop in the copper price today. Good to see Xcite staying in the blue, though off its best for the day.

On another note, Sareum Holdings finished down 13% after the 30%+ rise first thing (see my post earlier in the day). MeDaVinci changed its name to Orogen gold today and fell 8% to 0.87p as the new shares were issued to complete the purchase of its Serbian gold prospect.

Monday, February 28, 2011

Mixed day for Contrarian Investor uk portfolio

Despite an RNS, stating that Bowleven (BLVN) had started on the Sapele-1 sidetrack Sapele-1ST in the Douala Basin, offshore Cameroon, the shares fell 3p to 331p. The aim of Sapele-1ST is to appraise the Deep Omicron oil discovery encountered in the Sapele-1 exploration well. The well is to be drilled to an estimated vertical depth of circa 3,682 metres (4,761 metres measured depth) approximately 2 kilometres from the Deep Omicron oil discovery in the original vertical well. Drilling is expected to take approximately 40 to 50 days. Bowleven also announced that The Vantage Sapphire jack-up rig has now been contracted and the Sapele-2 well will spud around mid March 2011.

Xcite Energy (XEL) dropped 11.5p (3.5%) to 326p after this morning's news that the reserves report would be available at the end of March rather than early in the month. See earlier post: http://contrarianinvestoruk.blogspot.com/2011/02/xcite-energy-reserves-report-delayed.html

On a more positive note, Sirius (SXX) continued its rebound, rising 5% to 13.4p as realisation returns that the stock was oversold on the fall out from last week's Libyan crisis. Copper company, Weatherly (WTI) also rose 4.4% to 12.88p on strong metal prices. Even Rockhopper (RKH) managed a small gain to finish at 233p.

Wednesday, February 23, 2011

Taking advantage of silly valuations on Xcite and Rockhopper

Lets look at Rockhopper (RKH) first :

Market capitalisation = £600 million at 231p a share.
Cash in bank = £200 million
Proven reserves = 170 million barrels  of oil @ $5 dollars a barrel = $850 million (£524 million at £1=$1.62)
Cash + reserves = £724 million, i.e. £124 million greater than market cap

The market is pricing Rockhopper at less than the oil it has found at Sea Lion plus cash. it is highly unlikely that all 7 wells due in 2011 will be unsuccessful i.e. there is reserves upgrade. Lets not forget that Brent crude hit $108 a barrel.

The lets look at Xcite (XEL):

Market capitalisation = £550 million at 346p a share
Cash in bank =  approx £25 million
Proven reserves = 166 million barrels = $747 million @ $5 a barrel (plus discounting by 10% since heavy oil at Bentley)= £461 million.
Assuming pessimistic CPR upgrade in reserves to 200 million barrels = $900 million @$5 a barrel and heavy oil discount= £555 million

Xcite is currently priced on the basis of a 200 million field at only $5 a barrel with no upside from the CPR or on the future exploration licenses. As a reminder on the Xcite story, here's my post from January: http://contrarianinvestoruk.blogspot.com/2011/01/xcite-energy-should-prove-highly.html

After selling a big chunk of Xcite a couple of weeks ago on the takeover rumours I have bought a nice slug first thing today together with Rockhopper. Hopefully fundamentals will finally prevail on these stocks. I also bought more Weatherly International (WTI) on interim results as the story is now very compelling (http://contrarianinvestoruk.blogspot.com/2011/01/weatherly-international-namibian-copper.html).

Weatherly International Interim results RNS

Weatherly International (WTI) have just issued their interim report, all looks on track with excellent prospects. Top class company! The dividend from the China Africa Resources (CAR) AIM flotation in April will be most welcome.


RNS Number : 6695B
Weatherly International PLC
23 February 2011
Summary highlights for the six months ended 31 December 2010
Financial
· Cash at bank US$15 million as at 31 December 2010
· Net assets of US$32.1 million as at 31 December 2010


Corporate and operational

·    Successful restart  at Central Operations

·    US$7.0 million loan from Louis Dreyfus

·    Share placement raising £4.45 million  (US$ 7.0 million) in November 2010

·    Sale of Kombat mine completed, US$3.2 million received in total


Post Half Year End

·      Concentrator and the mines have now been fully commissioned and are operational

·      Forward sales of approximately 20% of the output from Central Operations for first 18 months of production at average weighted price of US$9,500 per tonne

·      First sales revenues expected March 2011

·      Contract awarded to drill the Tsumeb tailings as prelude to a full feasibility study


Chairman's statement


Half Year Statement

We are pleased to report Weatherly's results for the half year ended 31 December 2010.

During this period we recorded a loss of US$3.7 million comprising operating losses before depreciation of US$3.2 million associated with the cost of maintaining and redeveloping the mines, depreciation charges of US$1.6 million, and profit of US$1.1 million from disposal of Kombat and other property.  

Cash in the bank at 31 December, 2010 totalled US$15 million.

During this period our focus has been on the next stage of development of our Company. This involves not only returning our mines to production in accordance with our programme, but laying the foundations for further development and corporate growth.

Our plans for reopening the mines have involved the recruitment of senior staff and the strengthening of the boards of our operating companies in Namibia with some significant appointments. We have recruited Craig Thomas as Chief Operating Officer and two non-executive directors, Titus Haimbili and Frans Ndoroma, who join Cleophas Mutjavikua on the boards of our operating companies. We have been able to move quickly into production as a result of the measures taken to maintain the mines in good order since production ceased at the end of 2008.

We also entered into an off-take agreement with Louis Dreyfus Commodities Metals Suisse SA ('Louis Dreyfus Commodities') who also provided US$7.0 million of funding for the project.

With copper prices at a high level, the Board has adopted a cautious approach to risk management and has authorised forward selling of up to 35% of our output from the mines for a period of 18 months. To date we have contracted to sell approximately 20% of our projected output in two tranches: the first at US$9,260 per tonne and the second at US$9,750 per tonne. We shall continue to monitor copper prices and projections in the context of our overall strategy which is to guarantee minimum levels of revenue from our mines, particularly during the critical start-up period.

In November we undertook a placement of our shares raising £4.45 million (US$7.0 million) which also served as a catalyst to reshape our shareholder base. We are pleased to welcome all our new shareholders. Blackrock who participated in the placement and were allotted 12 million shares have now taken their total holding in the Company to 65.6 million shares (12.25%) having acquired a large part of the Dundee Precious Metals Inc shareholding.


Operational Update

Central Operations
Mining at Otjihase and Matchless has been under way since January and the company is now pleased to announce that all parts of the mine have been fully commissioned. This includes the concentrator, conveyor hoists and all of the machinery that is necessary to make the mine fully operational. Delivery of the concentrate to Walvis Bay is imminent and the first revenue is expected to be received in March. We believe that we have the right management, contractors and framework in place to sustain a viable and profitable operation which will serve as the platform for the future development of the Company.

Tsumeb Tailings
We are undertaking a formal investigation into the feasibility of copper production from the old tailings dump at Tsumeb. We are examining this urgently as it provides the potential to exploit an existing resource and increase our copper production with relatively low investment.  Accordingly, we have awarded a contract to Dump and Dune, a South African company, to mobilise at the beginning of March, 2011.  The Tsumeb tailings dump comprises residues from the old Tsumeb mining operations and contains an historical (non-compliant) resource of 16mt grading 0.71% copper.  It is also known to contain significant concentrations of lead, zinc and silver.  The company has engaged consultants Coffey Mining to prepare a resource statement and report that will comply with the AIM requirements. Sedgman Engineering, who is currently managing the Tschudi feasibility study, has also been engaged to determine the most suitable retreatment process that can take advantage of the existing Tsumeb concentrator and infrastructure.  


Tschudi Feasibility Study
The open pit-able resource at Tschudi remains a key element in our strategy for increased copper production. Currently the base case is to produce around 10-13,000tpa of copper over a life of at least ten years.Metallurgical testwork is continuing at the AMDEL laboratories in Perth under the auspices of Study Managers, Sedgman.  Results to date support the development of a stand-alone open pit operation based on either heap leaching the transitional ores followed by flotation of the primary ores or simply flotation of both ore types.  Final selection of the processing route is awaiting the results of column leachwork that has been running since last year and the latest round of flotation testwork.  With high precious metal prices, the recovery of silver has become an increasingly important element in determining the preferred metallurgical route.  

China Africa Resources Plc
In January we signed the Implementation Agreement with East China Mineral Exploration and Development Bureau ('ECE'), for the newly formed jointly managed company, China Africa Resources Plc ('CAR'). We are now working on the detailed documentation required for the listing. This transaction, when completed, will involve the distribution of 10% of the entire share capital in CAR to our shareholders as an in specie dividend. This will leave Weatherly with a 25% interest in a very exciting growth opportunity with an ambitious Chinese partner.    

Exploration
The company intends to accelerate its planned extension drilling of the Tschudi syncline. By doing so, it may be possible to incorporate any significant increases in the resource into the feasibility study without unduly delaying the final report. Drilling of Tsumeb West and other areas contained in the exploration licence is scheduled for later in the year.

Appointments
With so many projects going forward we are now in a position to recruit top mining executives to strengthen our team across the full range of our activities. We have appointed Dominic Claridge, an experienced mining engineer, to oversee the development projects at Tsumeb, Tschudi and Berg Aukas (on behalf of CAR).  With an increased focus on exploration we shall be making a further appointment to oversee our exploration activities in Namibia. We are also recruiting an experienced mine manager for Central Operations to support the excellent work carried out by Craig Thomas, our Chief Operating Officer. These are all key appointments that will support the future development of the Company.

Outlook
The company is now back in production at an opportune time given the current climate of high copper, and precious metal prices. We have an excellent pipeline of projects and a more than capable team of people to see these projects to fruition. We shall be increasing our exploration efforts with the aim of adding to our already substantial JORC compliant inventory of 623,645 tonnes of copper. The spin-out of CAR with one of China's largest mineral groups, ECE, offers enormous opportunity and we are still hopeful that there will be an early resolution to our involvement in the Tambao manganese project in Burkina Faso.  All in all, 2011 promises to be a very exciting year for the company.  

Monday, February 21, 2011

Markets move to safe haven assets

Today the markets responded continuing unrest in the Middle East with a move to safe havens such as the US dollar, gold and silver. Silver hit a 30 year high of $33 an ounce and brent crude oil hit $104, up $2. Risk aversion meant that AIM stocks are looking pretty sick today apart from silver and gold plays. A stronger dollar could mean that commodity prices will drop as they are sold in U.S. Dollars.

Rockhopper (RKH) dropped as much as 5% this morning with a seller clearly in the background and with as much as a month to wait until results from the 14/10-4 well are known. I put some today into my SIPP pension fund at 252p together with some more of copper stock, Weatherly International.

Saturday, February 19, 2011

Next Contrarian Investor UK stock review for end February?

So I've done the following AIM company reviews since the start of 2011:
  • Gulf Keystone Petreoleum (GKP) - http://contrarianinvestoruk.blogspot.com/2011/02/gulf-keystone-petroleum-interesting.html
  • Xcite Energy(XEL) -http://contrarianinvestoruk.blogspot.com/2011/01/xcite-energy-should-prove-highly.html
  • Range Resources (RRL) - http://contrarianinvestoruk.blogspot.com/2011/02/range-resources-look-to-have-good.html
  • Weatherly International (WTI) - http://contrarianinvestoruk.blogspot.com/2011/01/weatherly-international-namibian-copper.html
Only Xcite Energy and Weatherley International have made it into the portfolio so far, though Range looked interesting.

I'd like ideas for reviews on AIM stocks outside the commodity area, since the Contrarian Investor UK portfolio is way too skewed towards oil and gas. Please comment with any ideas.

Portfolio review of the week - 19th February 2011

Despite continued violence in Bahrain and an increase in Chinese interest rates to curb inflation, the FTSE 100  ended only marginally down at 6,083, a decline of 4 points giving a 20 point or 0.3% rise over the week.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average  rose 73 points, or 0.6%, to 12,391 its highest close for two and a half years.The Nasdaq rose 2, to 2,834, its highest close since October 31, 2007.

Violence is escalating in Bahrain between Sunni Muslim rulers and its Shiite majority population. Though ICE Brent for April was slightly lower at $102.52, after trading from $100.73 to $103.50. WTI U.S. crude finished at $86, down 0.2%.

Despite a strong oil price this week, the Contrarian Investor UK portfolio has suffered a second week of weakness. Its been a week of selling as I have de-leveraged on Xcite Energy (XEL) and sold my stake in Angel Mining.

Xcite Energy (XEL) - Xcite lost 29p or nearly 8% this week to finish at 353p as rumours continue to grow of a fund raising at around 350p to accompany the CPR (Competent Persons Report) which will move contingent resources to proven reserves and allow field development to begin. Though the CPR is expected to be positive, giving reserves of 225-250 million barrels of oil for the Bentley field, at least £200 million in shares is likely to be placed with institutions. With the price spiking to close to 400p last week on takeover rumours and with the likelihood of share price weakness, I took the opportunity to sell some of the holding to allow funds for acquisitions of other shares in the case of a market fall.

Bowleven (BLVN) - Bowleven dropped yet another 3.2% this week with news from the Sapele 1 side track several weeks away. At 318p, this appears bargain basement given the resources already discovered in Cameroon but sales by the BT Pension fund have helped move down the price. Frustrating given the upside potential in this share and it is now 9p below the last placing in October 2010.

Rockhopper (RKH) - Rockhopper dropped another 5% this week with the impact of the market disappointment from the 14/10-3 North Falklands basin well still being felt. The spudding of 14/10-4 which is much closer to the SeaLion discovery is due any day.  On fundamentals Rockhopper now looks very cheap. Its market capitalisation of £682 million, means that with £200 million in the bank deducted, Sea Lion's 170 million barrels are valued at just over $4 a barrel with no upside whatsoever. 14/10-3 is likely to add 40 million barrels to the discovery alone. Painful to be down on this one, but I believe patience will be rewarded and buyers will return with 7 wells yet to be drilled and a high COS (probability of success) on the new well.

Angel Mining (ANGM) - I lost patience with Angel Mining after we went into the 3rd week of February with no news from their Nalulaq gold mine. In my view no news is bad news, so I sold. Good long term prospects but things are very tight on cash flow and the last thing investors need is a cash call or increase in the SEDA (equity drawdown agreement).

Weatherly International (WTI) - Good to see copper miner Weatherly bounce on Friday to 12.4p (but still 5% down on the week) on news that Blackrock Smaller Companies has built a 7% share. This doesn't surprise since the constantly widening spread seemed to indicate the the market makers were playing some sort of game to accomodate some large block buys. Its good to see Blackrock involved to a greater extent a long with Gartmore as production ramps up in this really exciting Namibian copper company.  I am sure that we won't be seeing 12p for long with Copper at record highs and so much news to come from WTI in the coming months. I put a big slug into my SIPP pension plan earlier in the week because the risk/reward was excellent at less than 12p.

Thursday, February 10, 2011

AIM stocks take a battering today but some good buying opportunities

Most of the shares in my watchlist are down today, with the small cap commodity stocks in bad shape (with the exception of Range Resources which is up 30%+). I wonder how much is the CMC Aim stock issue (see previous post: http://contrarianinvestoruk.blogspot.com/2011/02/cmc-markets-change-may-impact-aim-this.html) and how much is general market sentiment? Stocks in the portfolio like Bowleven, Weatherley and Rockhopper are all down again today, compounding a poor week. I've taken the opportunity to top up on Weatherley (excellent company for gains in a 3 month time frame, see previous post: http://contrarianinvestoruk.blogspot.com/2011/01/weatherly-international-namibian-copper.html).

Good to see Xcite moving up right now to 390p after the good start this morning evaporated. I'm guessing there was some selling to get into Range (RRL)?