Google blows out earnings and Larry Page takes over as CEO

Accompanying the very strong Q4 2010 results after the Wall Street closing bell last night it was announced that Larry Page will take over Google's CEO position from Eric Schmidt in April. Co-founder Sergey Brin will focus on strategic projects and Google said, and ex-CEO Schmidt becomes executive chairman.

The continued strength of the internet advertising space was confirmed by the company's 4th quarter 2010 earnings report. Net income rose to $2.54 billion ($7.81 a share), from $1.97 billion ( $6.13), 12 months before. Revenue came in at $6.37 billion, or $8.75 s share versus expectations of $6 billion and $8.06 a share. The shares finished at $635, up $8.

Google's core Adwords business seems to be in good health and new businesses such as online display ads and mobile finally seem to be adding to the company's profit momentum and providing some diversification away from pay per click online ads.

So on the corporate earnings front the big U.S. tech players are delivering the goods. Corporate America seems strong, less so "man in main street".

Google results after the close will point to strength of online ad recovery

Google (GOOG) will post its fourth-quarter results after the closing bell today. Interesting because like Apple it is one of the tech bell weathers on the Nasdaq stock exchange

Analysts expect revenues of $6.1 billion for the quarter (versus $5 billion a year ago) and earnings of $8.06 a share (versus $6.79 a year ago).

Investors will be watching for:

1. Growth in mobile advertising

2. Whether YouTube and other acquisitions are starting to contribute to earnings e.g. DoubleClick

3. Whether costs are being held in check or whether job hiring continues to grow

4. Growth in Adwords.

The stock currently trades at $630, on a forward price/earnings (p/e) of 18.

Stocks get hammered on both sides of Atlantic

The FTSE 100 finished down 142 points or 2.5% at 5,411 as investors fretted that Greece’s debt crisis could spread to other euro zone members, particularly Portugal and Spain. The DOW Jones Industrials dropped as much as 270 points this afternoon and is currently down 243 points at 10,907. Tech stocks in the U.S. fared even worse with the Nasdaq composite currently down 77 points or 3% to 2,421 with Google (GOOG) down 4.5% to $506 and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) down 7% at 8.6%. The falls in the U.S. were despite upbeat quarterly earnings updates from pharmaceutical companies, Merck (MRK) and Pfizer (PFE). Commodity stocks were hit earlier in the day as news of an Australian mining super tax emerged over the weekend.

Google earnings rise 35% year on year in first quarter

After the close last night, internet search company Google (GOOG ) said first-quarter revenue was $5.06 billion and net income rose to $1.96 billion, or $6.06 a share, from $1.42 billion or $4.49 a share in the same period in 2009. Excluding special items, earnings for the 1st quarter were $6.76 a share against analyst expectations of $6.60. Google's rate of paid clicks, or the number of times users clicked on its advertisements and generated revenue, rose 15% from the same quarter last year. It had posted 13% growth in paid clicks in the prior fourth-quarter report. Analysts had been looking for first-quarter paid click growth in the range of 12% to 14%.

Some analysts were concerned that it had begun to hire aggressively again in the first quarter, meaning that its total costs and expenses rose to $4.3 billion from $3.6 billion in the same period last year. This drove the share price down 26 dollars to $569, a drop of over 4%, after hours. When out of 27 analysts, 25 have it as buy or overweight this shows the weight of expectation on Google's shares. Although the company beat estimates, the earnings outlook for the rest of the year has moved the share price down. It must be a legitimate concern, whether GOOG can continue driving earnings growth at the same rate if costs rise, its "bread and butter" search engine ads slows down, its exit from China curtails future growth and its acquisitions such as YouTube continue to disappoint in terms of monetization.

It seems the hypothesis that ad spending was going to increase substantially in 2010 is playing out. Companies such as ITV in the UK are already seeing the benefits of this rebound in their share prices with it touching 69p today, 20p higher than the point in March when Sky offloaded its stake. Frustrating to have sold out at 60p!

Anniversary of market rebound gives opportunity for reflection

The Dow Jones Industrials and the Standard & Poor's 500 both bottomed on March 9, 2009. It is incredible to think that 12 months ago, the S&P 500 stood at 672 and now is at 1,139, a 69% increase, the DOW Jones Industrials stood at 6,547 and are now at 10,550 (a 61% increase) and the FTSE 100 stood at 3,532, having increased 58% to today's 5,584. You could have picked up great stocks like Google (GOOG) for $289 (now $558), Caterpillar (CAT) for $23 (now $59), Apple (AAPL) for $83 (now $219), BP (BP.) for £4.29 (now £6.35) and HSBC (HSBA) for £3.04 (now £6.98). Despite having strong balance sheets, good profitability and great in-market positions these stocks were swept up in the negative spiral precipitated by the near collapse of the financial system, as exemplified by the demise of Lehman Brothers in September 2008. It really was the "sale of the century" for those brave enough to take a contrarian position back in the dark days of early 2009. For investors in more specialist vehicles such as commodity related stocks or emerging markets, returns in 2009 have been even more spectacular. For "value" investors, the signs of an oversold market were plain to see - forward price/earnings ration's close to the single digits for the DOW and FTSE, a yield on the FTSE of close to 5% and many quality companies close to cash value. But the fear gripping the market was such that with the exception of investors like Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (who invested too early in cases such as Goldman Sachs despite highly favourable terms), many chose to stay on the sidelines and waited for a signal of a turn. The volatility even frightened me and despite buying heavily back in March 2009, I chose to take quick profits rather than hold with a hope of higher returns.


So now in March 2010, the investment case is less certain. It may seem a crazy thing to say, but despite all the positive signals that the U.S. economy is slowly coming out of a painful recession, the risks of buying the market are higher than back 12 months ago. Whereas at the peak of the panic, you could have bought almost anything with a reasonable balance sheet, the market is much more tricky now with the big gains in the second half of 2009. Contrarian Investor UK is inclined to stay on the side lines for a time now and let the established positions run. The risk of a correction (albeit modest) is very much concerning me. Bad news has been largely discounted by the market during 2010, but any significant set back in U.S. or European recovery may well be a catalyst for profit taking and volumes are already so low in the U.S. that it suggests that the major players are not active in the market and waiting for a better investing opportunity.

Portfolio Update - 30th January 2010. Market weakness makes swimming against tide tough!

Falkland Oil and Gas (FOGL), Desire Petroleum (DES), Borders and Southern (BOR) – All Falkland Oil shares have fallen this week on oil price weakness and investor fight from riskier assets. (As an aside, my contrarian short play on Emerging makets would have eventually played out, after 3 weeks of heavy falls. Frustrating to have closed the shorts just before the drops). Having trimmed by positions as euphoria in the Falklands Oil story hit fever pitch two weeks ago, I have topped up this week on FOGL. Continuing to hold as Desire’s Ocean Guardian rig is due to arrive in the Falklands shortly and drilling will start by mid-February.



Nighthawk (HAWK) – Despite an update on the Jolly Ranch project (which said that the real news was due in February on the status of the drilling campaign), the share price remains stubbornly subdued at 32p. News on the water flooding at the Revere project is also anticipated. Holding at 31.5p.


Coal of Africa (CZA) – News that the acquisition of South Africa coal producer, NuCoal , was completed was not enough to give any positive momentum to the share price which finished the week at 118p. NuCoal should produce 4.2 million tonnes of coal per year. The lack of clarity on the approval process for the Vele project is still unnerving investors despite the fact that the company said it is accelerating capex on the project using some of the proceeds from the placing in October 2009. CZA confirmed that it would commence production of export quality coal in this quarter from it's Mooiplaats mine. Holding


GW Pharma (GWP) – The share price slipped a little this week as the markets generally took a tumble. Position increased on this weakness. Holding for approval news on the cannabis spray for MS, Sativex.


ITV (ITV) – News that ex Royal Mail boss Adam Crozier was appointed as Chief Executive did not cause much excitement in ITV’s stock price. Continuing to hold on expected recovery in TV revenues, hoped deregulation in TV market pricing and product placement.


Amgen (AMGN) – Despite heavy falls in the U.S. markets last week, Amgen had a good week, rising above $58. Some profits taken at $58.5 but continuing to hold core position on anticipation of Prolia (osteoporosis drug) approval in EU in this half of 2010.


INTEL (INTC) – After selling most of the position prior to the results at over $21, weakness in the semiconductor sector this week gave a buying opportunity at below $19 and therefore have reinitiated several positions.


Micron Technology (MU) – The worst performer of the week, having hit close to $11 3 weeks ago, the stock continues to slide close to $8.7 and with an average buy position of just below $10 this is showing a loss. The recent legal settmement between Samsung and Rambus did not help sentiment but concerns that Samsung may ramp up DRAM production or that inventories will rise have not helped the direction of the stock in recent days. Continuing to hold but on review.


Google (GOOG) – Position close at $555 after Q4 results disappointed markets with a fall from over $580. Stock now at $529 and looking at re-entry point.


JP Morgan (JPM) – Position initiated at $39. JPM is one of the better plays in the U.S. financial sector and has fallen heavily in the last 2 weeks from $43-44 range.

Planned stock sales by Google founders may further depress price

After Friday's closing bell, Google (GOOG) said co-founders Larry Page and Sergey Brin will each sell about 5 million shares under pre-arranged stock trading plans putting my holding in the frame once more.

Although the sale of the stock is likely to be spread over an extended period of time to minimize market impact. it may further knock sentiment on Monday after the disappointing reaction to Q4 earnings on Thursday. The co-founders hold about 57.7 million of Class B common shares, which represents around 18% of Google's capital stock.

Buy or sell of position to be reviewed Monday.

Google earnings underwhelm market despite strong growth

Google (GOOG) posted fourth quarter earnings after the close last night and showed big profit and sales gains as it continued to see an increase in the number of users clicking on its Internet Adwords ads. This very much supports the investment thesis in ITV that media companies will see a significant recovery in revenues in 2010 as advertisers boost investment to more normal levels.

Google’s net income rose to $1.97 billion, or $6.13 a share, in the quarter ended in December, compared with $382 million, or $1.21 a share, in the same period in 2008. Excluding special items, earnings for the quarter were $6.79 a share, compared with analyst estimates of $6.48. After falling close to 5% in after-hours trading to $550, following the earnings announcement, the stock recovered to finish the session at $582.

The stock fell initially on disappointment with the average price paid per click on a Google advertisement in the quarter. Google said the average price paid by advertisers rose 5% compared to the same period last year.The company said its paid clicks, or the number of times that users clicked on advertisements and generated revenue, rose 13% in the fourth quarter compared to the same period last year. Google had posted 14% year-over-year growth in paid clicks for its quarter ended in September.

Google’s stock has risen close to 100% since the lows in 2008 and expectations are very high. Though the results are impressive, they have underwhelmed the market which has built super charged growth into the share price. A short term trade in Google pre earnings release was initiated  but has not delivered and will be reviewed at today's open.