Portfolio Update - 30th January 2010. Market weakness makes swimming against tide tough!

Falkland Oil and Gas (FOGL), Desire Petroleum (DES), Borders and Southern (BOR) – All Falkland Oil shares have fallen this week on oil price weakness and investor fight from riskier assets. (As an aside, my contrarian short play on Emerging makets would have eventually played out, after 3 weeks of heavy falls. Frustrating to have closed the shorts just before the drops). Having trimmed by positions as euphoria in the Falklands Oil story hit fever pitch two weeks ago, I have topped up this week on FOGL. Continuing to hold as Desire’s Ocean Guardian rig is due to arrive in the Falklands shortly and drilling will start by mid-February.



Nighthawk (HAWK) – Despite an update on the Jolly Ranch project (which said that the real news was due in February on the status of the drilling campaign), the share price remains stubbornly subdued at 32p. News on the water flooding at the Revere project is also anticipated. Holding at 31.5p.


Coal of Africa (CZA) – News that the acquisition of South Africa coal producer, NuCoal , was completed was not enough to give any positive momentum to the share price which finished the week at 118p. NuCoal should produce 4.2 million tonnes of coal per year. The lack of clarity on the approval process for the Vele project is still unnerving investors despite the fact that the company said it is accelerating capex on the project using some of the proceeds from the placing in October 2009. CZA confirmed that it would commence production of export quality coal in this quarter from it's Mooiplaats mine. Holding


GW Pharma (GWP) – The share price slipped a little this week as the markets generally took a tumble. Position increased on this weakness. Holding for approval news on the cannabis spray for MS, Sativex.


ITV (ITV) – News that ex Royal Mail boss Adam Crozier was appointed as Chief Executive did not cause much excitement in ITV’s stock price. Continuing to hold on expected recovery in TV revenues, hoped deregulation in TV market pricing and product placement.


Amgen (AMGN) – Despite heavy falls in the U.S. markets last week, Amgen had a good week, rising above $58. Some profits taken at $58.5 but continuing to hold core position on anticipation of Prolia (osteoporosis drug) approval in EU in this half of 2010.


INTEL (INTC) – After selling most of the position prior to the results at over $21, weakness in the semiconductor sector this week gave a buying opportunity at below $19 and therefore have reinitiated several positions.


Micron Technology (MU) – The worst performer of the week, having hit close to $11 3 weeks ago, the stock continues to slide close to $8.7 and with an average buy position of just below $10 this is showing a loss. The recent legal settmement between Samsung and Rambus did not help sentiment but concerns that Samsung may ramp up DRAM production or that inventories will rise have not helped the direction of the stock in recent days. Continuing to hold but on review.


Google (GOOG) – Position close at $555 after Q4 results disappointed markets with a fall from over $580. Stock now at $529 and looking at re-entry point.


JP Morgan (JPM) – Position initiated at $39. JPM is one of the better plays in the U.S. financial sector and has fallen heavily in the last 2 weeks from $43-44 range.