Interesting that no news on rig contract for Rowan Norway so far with deadline on Monday to avoid break fee of $4 million. Bit of speculation but could be either a) some big issue with fee or contract which has created a stumbling block and delay b) Xcite negotiating with Talisman to take early delivery of Rowan Stavanger until they need it then use Norway c) Xcite are in takeover talks and rig tied up in negotiation d) they've found another rig from another supplier
Option A seems unlikely after so many months! Intriguing indeed!
Big buyer still in background who picked up shares all day. Wonder who?
Friday, January 28, 2011
Weatherly International purchase
With a 6 percent fall today on Weatherley International (WTI) I have taken the opportunity to buy into this interesting Namibian copper play. It's been on my watch list for a while and the drop looks Market Maker driven (on general market sentiment) as the sell volume hasn't been excessive.
Momentum continues on Xcite
Xcite Energy (XEL) has had another good start, currently up 10p to 376p. Some nice buys going through, some in 25 and 50k blocks.
Rig news is due imminently, either today or Monday with rig signing deadline set for January 31st.
Going to be action packed few days. Rockhopper well results just around the corner (probably mid next week but maybe sooner) and Angel Mining due to make announcement on 1st shipment of gold dore by end of the month (barring any further delays of course!).
Rig news is due imminently, either today or Monday with rig signing deadline set for January 31st.
Going to be action packed few days. Rockhopper well results just around the corner (probably mid next week but maybe sooner) and Angel Mining due to make announcement on 1st shipment of gold dore by end of the month (barring any further delays of course!).
Thursday, January 27, 2011
Portfolio has good day on little news but plenty of rumours
The majority of the Contrarian Investor UK portfolio was well up today. The strongest performer was Xcite Energy with a 3.5% gain, but Rockhopper (+2.7%) and Bowleven (+2.8% after being as high as 5% up in the morning) all had a good day after the falls of earlier in the week. Speculation was the order of the day - Xcite takeover rumours surfaced again (seems unlikely until the field reserves have been confirmed by the Competent Persons Report), with Bowleven it was that the background seller was gone (JP Morgan) after an RNS confirmed a sale of shares by JPM over the last 6 weeks.
For Sirius Minerals it was good to see a recovery in the share price in the afternoon to move from down 5% to close up 5%. Seemed to be purely on sentiment changing that North Dakota was at its end game.
Xcite seemed exceptionally strong at the close and I have moved some funds from Bowleven to Xcite since this seems to be the most likely to move strongly upward in coming days. Interesting to note that there were two 41,000 share buys during the day, but only at a small premium to the prevailing price.
It should also be an interesting day tomorrow and Monday/Tuesday for Rockhopper given their latest well is close to reaching a potential hydrocarbon depth. It rose as much as +15p today before settling +9.5p. Again it was down first thing.
Nice investing day for a change. You would have thought the stock market ws doomed after the last week on many of the holdings!
For Sirius Minerals it was good to see a recovery in the share price in the afternoon to move from down 5% to close up 5%. Seemed to be purely on sentiment changing that North Dakota was at its end game.
Xcite seemed exceptionally strong at the close and I have moved some funds from Bowleven to Xcite since this seems to be the most likely to move strongly upward in coming days. Interesting to note that there were two 41,000 share buys during the day, but only at a small premium to the prevailing price.
It should also be an interesting day tomorrow and Monday/Tuesday for Rockhopper given their latest well is close to reaching a potential hydrocarbon depth. It rose as much as +15p today before settling +9.5p. Again it was down first thing.
Nice investing day for a change. You would have thought the stock market ws doomed after the last week on many of the holdings!
FT Alphaville Xcite bid rumour
NH
NH
Probably complete garbage and with only 715,000 shares traded the market seems to agree.
Bowleven out of doldrums too
Sense has returned at last to Bowleven (BLVN), up 5% with good volume after the days of big falls from the 400p zone. An RNS just before 9 confirmed the main reason for this fall. Major shareholder, JP Morgan, have been selling shares over the last 6 weeks. They now own just below 10% of the company, down 1% of so. Will be interesting to see if this is it or whether their stake continues to go down. The market seems to think the seller is out of the anyway.
I guess that Heritage Oil's gas, rather than oil find, in Iraq and subsequent 30% drop also knocked confidence in the small cap oil/gas sector. We know that Bowleven has oil and plenty of it. This is no Heritage.
I guess that Heritage Oil's gas, rather than oil find, in Iraq and subsequent 30% drop also knocked confidence in the small cap oil/gas sector. We know that Bowleven has oil and plenty of it. This is no Heritage.
Xcite looking good on Level 2
Steady buying of Xcite Energy this morning, just ticked up to +7p, despite the wide spread with good depth on the buy side and offer slowing rising. Seems the Market Makers don't know which way this is going - up? Volume rubbish so far.
Xcite's Lucas-Clements talking at Offshore summit on 1st February
This would be an interesting presentation to see Charles Lucas-Clements in action.
Offshore Production Technology Summit 2011
31st January - 1st February 2011
Lancaster London Hotel, London, UK
Maximising growth through innovation
31st January - 1st February 2011
Lancaster London Hotel, London, UK
Maximising growth through innovation
Case Study: Xcite Energy - Pre-production planning and development of an offshore heavy oil field
Understanding the unique nature of the venture
Assessing the technologies involved:
Horizontal well technology
Separation technology
Charles Lucas-Clements, Director of Strategy and Business Development, Xcite Energy ResourcesUnited Kingdom
Understanding the unique nature of the venture
Assessing the technologies involved:
Horizontal well technology
Separation technology
Charles Lucas-Clements, Director of Strategy and Business Development, Xcite Energy ResourcesUnited Kingdom
Wednesday, January 26, 2011
Bad week continues so its case of waiting for the turn
Late December and early January seemed to be days of endless gains on the portfolio. Bowleven (BLVN) and Xcite Energy (XEL) both showed strong moves up on positive news. Now things have come to a grinding halt and I'm seeing day after day of steady (and not so steady) declines. Every stock in the portfolio was negative again today (Sirius, Bowleven, Xcite, Sirius, Rockhopper) bar one (Imagination tech). Bowleven was looking particularly sick this morning with a 5% fall soon after the market open, but reason prevailed and it recovered to close down 3p, at 348p. Yesterday the fall in the oil stocks was precipitated by the falling oil price and there is certainly a sector rotation out of oil at the moment with prospects of rising inventories and OPEC threatening to increase production. Today, market sentiment just seemed to be against AIM and the small cap sector.
It's a case of just sitting it out when you have weeks like this. The stocks are solid, the research has been done, the news flow has been checked now buyers need to come back. Earnings out of the U.S. continue to be strong which should support the markets.
Still patiently waiting for the anticipated news flow from most of the stocks in the portfolio.
It's a case of just sitting it out when you have weeks like this. The stocks are solid, the research has been done, the news flow has been checked now buyers need to come back. Earnings out of the U.S. continue to be strong which should support the markets.
Still patiently waiting for the anticipated news flow from most of the stocks in the portfolio.
DOW JONES moves over 12,000 for the first time since mid 2008
The Dow Jones Industrial Average has finally breached the 12,000 mark for the first time since June 25, 2008 driven by strong new home sales were the highest since April 2010 when tax credits artificially boosted sales. The FTSE 100 is also in good form up 75 to 5,992.
Bowleven knocked again
Bowleven (BLVN) down another 5% at the open and a hair's breath from the placing price of £3.27 achieved on 26th November. Seems to be finding its feet a little now but the sudden drop in the last week has been amazing.
Tuesday, January 25, 2011
Oil at 2 month low
March futures for WTI (West Texas Intermediate) Crude Oil fell $1.68 to $86.19, the lowest since the end of November 2010.
Saudi Arabia’s oil minister, Ali al-Naimi, said that OPEC (Organistion of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) could raise output plus JP Morgan said in a broker note that additional supply was expected from the North Sea during 2011. The price was also pressurised by a stronger dollar - a strong dollar drives down commodity prices since they are sold in U.S. dollars.
Saudi Arabia’s oil minister, Ali al-Naimi, said that OPEC (Organistion of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) could raise output plus JP Morgan said in a broker note that additional supply was expected from the North Sea during 2011. The price was also pressurised by a stronger dollar - a strong dollar drives down commodity prices since they are sold in U.S. dollars.
The falling oil price probably didn't help matters in the U.K. oil shares together with the poor GDP figures. Though oil could continue to be week for the next few weeks on rising inventories, the outlook is for it to stay in the $85-95 range.
Nice turnaround on Sirius but Bowleven weak
Great to see the shorters and derampers stung on Sirius Minerals (SXX) with the price closing up on the day after the steep falls earlier in the day (up 3% at 17.75p). 17p seems a good support level for the next news flow.
Bowleven (BLVN) was less fortunate with it falling over 5% to 351p. Market maker tree shake no, but seems like someone was taking advantage of the bad GDP news. Makes me wonder if an RNS is due sooner than we think. Though uncomfortable I bought some more at 350p. Little overcooked on this one but the fundamentals are strong purely on the oil they've discovered already. Feels like Xcite Energy (XEL) before the flow test results, but still disconcerting with this size of investment. Will be interesting day tomorrow to see if finally we can have a blue day. A test of the investor on this stock today and I'm holding my nerve for now. Stupid, we'll see!!
Bowleven (BLVN) was less fortunate with it falling over 5% to 351p. Market maker tree shake no, but seems like someone was taking advantage of the bad GDP news. Makes me wonder if an RNS is due sooner than we think. Though uncomfortable I bought some more at 350p. Little overcooked on this one but the fundamentals are strong purely on the oil they've discovered already. Feels like Xcite Energy (XEL) before the flow test results, but still disconcerting with this size of investment. Will be interesting day tomorrow to see if finally we can have a blue day. A test of the investor on this stock today and I'm holding my nerve for now. Stupid, we'll see!!
Why Contrarian Investor UK bothers?
I was talking to one of my investment club contacts today and I hear there's been some posts on the iii.co.uk bulletin questioning the motives behind this blog. Ramping, plagarising etc. etc. - pretty distasteful stuff!
If I was writing purely to "ramp" my portfolio then there would be better and less time consuming ways to do it. For example, like other offenders, I could create multiple usernames on the bulletin boards and plug away. I like to think there is some reason arguments for my supposed "ramps". Plus I cover stocks and subjects that I do not even own e.g. recent posts on Irish banking collapse, Google, Apple etc. I do look at the content of bulletin boards for additional information but if I "copy" anything I will always reference the author.
I write the Contrarian Investor on an anonymous basis purely to protect my interests in my job. It is not because I wish to hide behind posts which are ill considered, non-sensical and full of errors. I make a couple of pounds a day from Google Adsense and nothing more. None of the stocks I talk about dramatically rise after I compose a post, so my supposed "ramps" don't work! Though I think Buffett is an amazing investor, I consider myself in the Z list compared with the greats. Always learning from mistakes, and there's always something to learn in this game no matter the number of years.
The reason I write Contrarian Investor UK is because:
1. I love the workings of the stock market and I am fascinated by its herd psychology
2. There are very few places to find information on small cap UK stocks apart from the bulletin boards and there's some good stuff there but a lot of dross too.
3. Unlike the U.S. there are few good U.K. stock blogs with informative content
4. I want to share my knowledge of the stocks I invest in and the significant research I do on them
5. Finally I enjoy writing and it helps me to confirm my investing decisions
I gave up Contrarian Investor UK last July because work was too busy and commuting too long. But I missed the buzz of writing a blog even though it is a constant drain on my free time. Often I think, should I bother. But the odd email of positive support gives me the will to battle on. If the guys on the bulletin boards think I am doing a bad job and they can do better then so be it, perhaps they should start their own blog. I have been very pleased with the traffic to the site this month, 23,000 page views visitors and counting so I guess someone's interested??
If I was writing purely to "ramp" my portfolio then there would be better and less time consuming ways to do it. For example, like other offenders, I could create multiple usernames on the bulletin boards and plug away. I like to think there is some reason arguments for my supposed "ramps". Plus I cover stocks and subjects that I do not even own e.g. recent posts on Irish banking collapse, Google, Apple etc. I do look at the content of bulletin boards for additional information but if I "copy" anything I will always reference the author.
I write the Contrarian Investor on an anonymous basis purely to protect my interests in my job. It is not because I wish to hide behind posts which are ill considered, non-sensical and full of errors. I make a couple of pounds a day from Google Adsense and nothing more. None of the stocks I talk about dramatically rise after I compose a post, so my supposed "ramps" don't work! Though I think Buffett is an amazing investor, I consider myself in the Z list compared with the greats. Always learning from mistakes, and there's always something to learn in this game no matter the number of years.
The reason I write Contrarian Investor UK is because:
1. I love the workings of the stock market and I am fascinated by its herd psychology
2. There are very few places to find information on small cap UK stocks apart from the bulletin boards and there's some good stuff there but a lot of dross too.
3. Unlike the U.S. there are few good U.K. stock blogs with informative content
4. I want to share my knowledge of the stocks I invest in and the significant research I do on them
5. Finally I enjoy writing and it helps me to confirm my investing decisions
I gave up Contrarian Investor UK last July because work was too busy and commuting too long. But I missed the buzz of writing a blog even though it is a constant drain on my free time. Often I think, should I bother. But the odd email of positive support gives me the will to battle on. If the guys on the bulletin boards think I am doing a bad job and they can do better then so be it, perhaps they should start their own blog. I have been very pleased with the traffic to the site this month, 23,000 page views visitors and counting so I guess someone's interested??
Rough day today on bad U.K. GDP news
Its been a big red day across the board for the portfolio for the second day. The main reason was the unexpected news that the U.K.’s GDP (Gross Domestic Product) shrank in the final quarter of 2010 by 0.5%, compared with growth expectations of at least 0.2%. This was caused by weak services and construction, though manufacturing continued to be strong.
So we have a heady cocktail of rising inflation (4.8% RPI) and weakening growth which makes life very interesting for the Bank Of England (BOE). If they increase interest rates above 0.5% they risk curtailing growth even more especially with the raft of austerity measures and tax increases (e.g. VAT recently increased to 20%). BOE Governor, Mervyn King, said tonight that families faced the biggest squeeze on household income for 90 years. The government blamed the bad weather in December for the fall in economic output. The news probably puts the brakes on interest rate increases for the foreseeable future which should be good news for the U.K. stock market in 2011, unless a double dip recession does rear it's ugly head ahead. This will happen if quarter one GDP falls (a recession is technically two quarters of economic contraction).
On a stock specific note, Sirius Minerals (SXX) continued its downward trajectory, falling below 16p during the morning but it has now stabilised at 16.5p (down 3.5%). It is unclear for the reason for the big fall this morning.It may have been shorters or just an excess of sellers. I’m sure market makers also had a role to play to “panic the weak”.
Bowleven (BLVN) is suffering with a 5% fall to 352p. As for the reason for this big drop, no idea! Perhaps it’s a leak from Cameroon that the extended drilling has come to nothing, but nothing to confirm either way. Looking at level 2, certainly a big seller in the background and not enough buyers to mop up the excess supply. Not a market maker tree shake since not a dramatic fall, a gradual tick down as selling pressure built through the day.
Imagination Tech (IMG) has like Bowleven had a bad day, but has now recovered to 11p down 3.2% despite a story on Apple insider (http://www.appleinsider.com/articles/11/01/24/production_of_apples_ipad_2_to_begin_in_february_iphone_5_in_may_report.html) that production for IPAD 2 will start in February for an April launch
with Iphone 5 due in June both with the persistant rumour that these devices both will have IMG chips.
At least Xcite (XEL) has held nicely firm despite the overall market weakness, currently down 0.5p to 363-367p.
On a stock specific note, Sirius Minerals (SXX) continued its downward trajectory, falling below 16p during the morning but it has now stabilised at 16.5p (down 3.5%). It is unclear for the reason for the big fall this morning.It may have been shorters or just an excess of sellers. I’m sure market makers also had a role to play to “panic the weak”.
Bowleven (BLVN) is suffering with a 5% fall to 352p. As for the reason for this big drop, no idea! Perhaps it’s a leak from Cameroon that the extended drilling has come to nothing, but nothing to confirm either way. Looking at level 2, certainly a big seller in the background and not enough buyers to mop up the excess supply. Not a market maker tree shake since not a dramatic fall, a gradual tick down as selling pressure built through the day.
Imagination Tech (IMG) has like Bowleven had a bad day, but has now recovered to 11p down 3.2% despite a story on Apple insider (http://www.appleinsider.com/articles/11/01/24/production_of_apples_ipad_2_to_begin_in_february_iphone_5_in_may_report.html) that production for IPAD 2 will start in February for an April launch
with Iphone 5 due in June both with the persistant rumour that these devices both will have IMG chips.
At least Xcite (XEL) has held nicely firm despite the overall market weakness, currently down 0.5p to 363-367p.
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