Previous post on ITV reminds me to have courage in your conviction

The 2 main holdings in my portfolio, Xcite Energy (xel) and Weatherly (wti) aren't exactly performing at the moment.

In fact, you can say that Xcite's performance has been dire. In the last 3 weeks the share price has dropped by nearly a pound, or 25%. From excessive optimism about a takeover, now there is excessive pessimism as we flirt with the 300p level. As i posted, earlier today, I really liked ITV back in January 2010, purely on a fundamentals. I bought at 58p, watched the shares go below 50p and then sold from boredom around 60p a couple of months later. The shares hit 93p yesterday! Yes you would have to hold a year to have this gain, but it does demonstrate that if you have done the research and bought for the right reasons, patience can be your friend.

I first bought Xcite Energy in November 2010, on the basis that it had an excellent prospect in the North Sea. Of course then it was risky, since Conoco had failed to make the field flow in the 1980's. In December, Xcite proved the oil could be flowed at a good rate. Risk removed, yet at 308p right now, we are not much higher than pre December. In Q4 the Rowan Norway rig arrives on the Bentley field, in early 2012 the company will be producing 15,000 barrels a day and the field is 100% owned by Xcite. I have been buying on this latest sell off, I'm sure patience will be rewarded.

As for Weatherly, its the same story. There's not been a great deal of movement on this AIM copper play (its the only one on AIM). Though production is gearing up nicely to over 4000 tonnes of copper in 2011 and Blackrock now 16% of the company, the shares are going no where fast. Stuck at 11-12.5p for weeks. However, on a fundamental basis this has to go higher, hence I am buying on any opportunity and it is now my no.2 holding.

In summary, my ITV experience has taught me again to stick with conviction contrarian buys. Buffett employs this with great success, when he likes a stock he buys more during periods of opportunity. He bought Coke when everyone else was selling during the Classic Coke disaster in the 1990's (when they launched a sweeter formula to rival Pepsi, but soon had to change back after a consumer backlash from loyalists of the original flavour). His dividend payment per share is now higher than the purchase price!

ITV hits 93p, shame I sold!

I was very positive about TV company ITV (ITV) early last year (see post from Jan 7th 2010) - a classic contrarian play! Back them, nearly every broker was damning the company saying it was doomed but with the Croizer/Norman combination it looked a no-brainer. The shares hit a new high yesterday of 93p on earnings upgrades and it is likely that it will reenter the FTSE 100 this year. Damn annoying I sold in the second quarter of 2010. Lesson to myself, more patience sometimes!!

THURSDAY, JANUARY 7, 2010

ITV looks good play on advertising recovery

ITV revenues look to be strong in January (up 6.5% versus 3% for the total TV market) as revenues from advertisers floods in (source Aegis group),

With Archie Norman taking the helm at the company and a strong rebound in media expenditure looking likely, and Goldman Sachs adding ITV to its conviction buy list with a 70p target,  now seems to be a good time to invest in ITV.

Position initiated at 58p.

 

Ben Bernanke indicates U.S. interest rates will stay low

The pound hit a thirteen month high against the U.S. dollar of $1.63, as the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman, Ben Bernanke, said yesterday that that the bank would keep rates “exceptionally low” for an “extended period”. He also said the Fed would be ready to increase the programme of quantitative easing (where the Fed buys bonds) if necessary in order to maintain economic growth. The news helped to move U.S. stocks into positive territory, as the period of "easy money" looks like continuing for some time yet.

A further weakening in the U.S. dollar means that commodities, which are priced in dollars, will continue to rise, adding to inflationary pressures.

New Weatherly Investor presentation March 2011

Link to new Weatherly International (WTI) investor presentation (March 2011):

http://www.rns-pdf.londonstockexchange.com/rns/1215C_-2011-3-1.pdf

Production of copper is forecast to be 4200 tonnes in 2011 and 7900 in 2012 from the Matchless and Otjihase mines (see page page 21). This equates to $41.5 million this year (at $9900/tonne) and $78 million in 2012.

Blackrock confirmed with 16.7% stake in WTI.

In summary - strong revenue and profit growth, strong institutional support

(see previous summary http://contrarianinvestoruk.blogspot.com/2011/01/weatherly-international-namibian-copper.html)

Middle East unsettles markets again and Xcite Energy takes the brunt of rumour mill

Oil is currently up nearly 3% to just shy of $100 a barrel (WTI Crude), its highest level since the middle of 2008 on fears of an escalation of violence in the middle East and its potential impact on supply. Sentiment wasn't helped as U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Bernancke said high oil prices could dent a global economic recovery. Gold hit a record high of $1,432, up 22 dollars on the day as the flight to safe havens continued. The FTSE 100 was hit with a drop of 58 points to 5,936, whilst the Dow Industrials is down 137 points to 12,089.

The Contrarian Investor UK portfolio had plenty of action today.

Xcite Energy (XEL) collapsed another 5% to 311p. Rumours abound about reasons for the delay in the reserves upgrade and Competent Persons Report (CPR). Conspiracy theories are circulating that management are hiding something with the shift to TRACS rather than RPS energy to complete the reserves report. Like the rubbish that we saw on the bulletin boards pre-flow test like the Betty Knutsen saga, its almost certain to be complete fiction. The supposed "guys in the know" are spooking ordinary investors to sell shares at daft prices. Market Makers are taking the Michael!!

Then we have the funding issue. Again lots of talk by derampers that Xcite will have a massively discounted placing to fund the Bentley field development. As a reminder from last weeks Reuters interview with Rupert Cole (CFO) - ""We're not of a mind to farm-down ... There's no reason that we can't deliver this and bring the field into production," "bringing a substantial oil field like Bentley into production is a costly process for a company with no cash flow, but Cole believes Xcite can undertake the development without bringing in a partner and possibly without raising fresh equity."I wouldn't rule it out, I wouldn't rule it in either," he said when asked if the company was planning a fundraising, adding that he was encouraged by approaches from institutions willing to lend to the company. See my previous post at http://contrarianinvestoruk.blogspot.com/2011/02/xcites-cfo-cole-confirms-partner-may.html.

I believe 311p is a crazily low price because:
1. Xcite are It is already sitting on substantial oil-in-place volumes of between 109 and 235 million barrels as confirmed by the last CPR - probable 170 mm barrels (which is a legal document). The Bentley field is in the North Sea, no political risks.

2. A new reserves report is due in late March - the 9-3b/6 well flowed at the top end of expectations (2900 barrels per day) and the vertical pilot section of the well encountered a larger than expected oil column towards the end of October 2010. RNS of 31st December said  “In addition to the successful well flow test announced on 21 December 2010, high quality downhole pressure, temperature and sample data has been safely recovered following a 36 hour shut in and build up period after the flow test.” It would be expected that we will looking at 250-300 million barrles.

3. A rig has been contracted from British American offshore (Rowan Norway) and is due for delivery in June and be in operation in October or November

4. Production of 15,000 barrels per day is due to start in early Q1 2011. Upside of 60,000 barrels per day. Field life of 12-15 years.

5. The Bentley field has full infrastructure support through the Bentley alliance which includes BP and Amec.

Enough said really. This feels like pre flow test days when the price was oscillating like crazy on unfounded rumours. I bought then in the dark days when the derampers were calling a "duster". Now I am buying on equally dark days....and hoping for brighter days ahead. But less hope, more conviction!

Fellow North Sea explorer, Encore Oil (EO.) announced today it had spudded two wells. The Cladhan appraisal well 210/30a-4, in which it has a 16.6% interest, was spudded yesterday evening in Northern North Sea Block 210/30a. EnCore's is partnered Sterling Resources (39.9%), Wintershall (33.5%) and Dyas UK (10%). Drilling is expected to take around 40 days, using the Transocean Prospect semi-submersible rig.

EnCore also announced the Burgman exploration well 23/9-4 in Central North Sea Block 28/9 was spudded this morning. It is a joint venture with Premier Oil (PMO), Wintershall, Nautical Petroleum (NPE) and Agora Oil & Gas. The well is exploring the Tay and Cromarty sands and is expected to take approximately 25 days. In addition it will also drill a deeper, Jurassic aged Fulmar sand target. The shares dropped 1% to 119p.

Sirius Minerals (SXX) popped nicely again today with an 11% gain to 14.88p. After buying last week I took some profit to invest in Xcite Energy. I am sure further gains are ahead, but Xcite is just too tempting at 311p,

Bowleven (BLVN) also had a good day, finishing up 6p at 338p. I sold a tranche earlier in the day at over 340p. This stock has risen nicely since the Goldman Sachs conviction buy report last week, it was less than 300p little more than a week ago.

I took the opportunity to increase my stake in Rockhopper (RKH) and also bought into Solomon Islands and Australian gold explorer, Solomon Gold (SOLG) which is now trading at 28.5p (which is only 0.5p higher than the £15 million October 2010 placing). I am finishing a Contrarian Investor review on the company and I hope to post it in the next day or two. Time is tight these days! I was trading SOLG late in 2010, but it has dropped back below 30p and I like the prospects for this company with its varied portfolio of gold assets, particularly in the Ring of Fire area in the Solomons.

From III.co.uk Conversation with Jon Dale

Fowlertheprowler 16.57 iii.co.uk xcite board

I am happy to post the following feedback from a conversation I had with Jon Dale yesterday late afternoon.

He knows who I post as and he has my personal details (address etc) so I can be authenticated and brought to task if I relay false information. Also for the record I currently hold 60,000 shares and only plan to add over the next few months when the opportunities allow.

I will keep it short and simple:

ISSUE ONE - Appointment of TRACS for Reserves Report

I asked why the apparent change regarding regarding the appointment of Tracs (part of APR Group) to complete the Reserves report as opposed to RPS Energy...

The explanation was absolutely reasonable and logical. Firstly, as the RNS clearly states, Tracs were appointed as independent third party engineers in the second half of 2010. In other words, their involvement is nothing new and in no shape or form a panic reaction.

Secondly, Jon pointed out that due to the amount of work RPS have already carried out for Xcite over a long period of time, it was felt that their independence could be compromised / called into question and that appointing Tracs would overcome this issue. That is not to say that RPS lack credibility, on the contrary, but what it does do is show that the Xcite BOD want the reserves report to be above reproach in terms of the perception of it from the City and other investors. This a good thing.

ISSUE TWO - Is a Placement about to be announced in tandem with Report

I asked if the slight delay in the report due to an imminent placement. Of course, Jon cannot answer this question and I have always found his conduct to be 100 per reputable and professional. However, I made the point that I assumed a fundraising was imminent. At this point Jon echoed Rupert Cole's recent comments (which are on the public record) that this assumption should not be necessarily made. Read into this what you will.

ISSUE THREE - Xcite will never move to production - they will be takenover first...

This has never been my assumption, as many of you will know, although I sit in the minority camp on this one with many very well informed posters convinced that Mr Kew has no intentions of managing lots of staff as potentially the North Seas second largest independent oil producer.

Of course Jon cannot mention any talks even if there were any, but he was very convincing when he stated that it is they every intention to bit by bit prove up the Bentley field and extract oil from here....making the point that it is when the oil is extracted commercially that the true value will be unlocked.

ISSUE FOUR Share price expectations.....

My views in this area mirror Jon's. He made the point that it is not realistic to expect all of the possible contingency resources (385 million barrels perhaps by 2014 - my opinion here not Jon's) to be converted into reserves in one go in the approaching report. That is not to say that some will be allocated. However, as an investor the most sensible course is to view the progression of the share price on a long term trajectory with value being unlocked on an incremental basis as bit by bit the enormous potential of the Bentley field (and beyond..) is realised.

Whilst Jon was in no way dismissive of private investors he did make the point that if a few pi's sell off because of a lack of understanding of the a process that has been clearly communicated and because of unrealistic expectations (ie 200 million booked into reserves by April!!!) there is not a lot that Xcite can do about it.

Finally Jon shared all of our disappointment with current reaction to the share price, but he did not seem unduly fazed by it and why would he be!

Conclusion - Be patient and you will be rewarded. If you can't afford to leave money in for 12-18 months you should not be investing in an oily that has not gone into production yet...

Make of the above what you will and I'm sure some will weave conspiracy theories into it, but I will continue to hold and hope to fill my SIPP with these when I have converted my company pension.

The daffodils may not be dancing yet (funnily enough none of mine have flowered yet this year), but I am confident they will be joyful, radiant and triumphant by spring next year.

Patience will be rewarded.

As for the Saudi question, I can't control events in the Middle East and yes there is a risk that a big prolonged spike in the oil price could tip the world into the recession which would result in a large drop in oil price. This would of course have a detrimental effect short term on Xcite. However, I put this to you all, if regimes are toppled do you really think they will turn the oil taps off and refuse investment and development from the major oilies? Surely, they will want to rebuild their infrastructure, lay the foundations for a civil society, share the oil wealth around the citizens. The motivation to boost the state coffers will be hugh. If it leads to a more inclusive less corrupt and more equitable society in the middle east I can wait a few years for my fortune!

NM

From III.co.uk Conversation with Jon Dale

Fowlertheprowler 16.57 iii.co.uk xcite board

I am happy to post the following feedback from a conversation I had with Jon Dale yesterday late afternoon.

He knows who I post as and he has my personal details (address etc) so I can be authenticated and brought to task if I relay false information. Also for the record I currently hold 60,000 shares and only plan to add over the next few months when the opportunities allow.

I will keep it short and simple:

ISSUE ONE - Appointment of TRACS for Reserves Report

I asked why the apparent change regarding regarding the appointment of Tracs (part of APR Group) to complete the Reserves report as opposed to RPS Energy...

The explanation was absolutely reasonable and logical. Firstly, as the RNS clearly states, Tracs were appointed as independent third party engineers in the second half of 2010. In other words, their involvement is nothing new and in no shape or form a panic reaction.

Secondly, Jon pointed out that due to the amount of work RPS have already carried out for Xcite over a long period of time, it was felt that their independence could be compromised / called into question and that appointing Tracs would overcome this issue. That is not to say that RPS lack credibility, on the contrary, but what it does do is show that the Xcite BOD want the reserves report to be above reproach in terms of the perception of it from the City and other investors. This a good thing.

ISSUE TWO - Is a Placement about to be announced in tandem with Report

I asked if the slight delay in the report due to an imminent placement. Of course, Jon cannot answer this question and I have always found his conduct to be 100 per reputable and professional. However, I made the point that I assumed a fundraising was imminent. At this point Jon echoed Rupert Cole's recent comments (which are on the public record) that this assumption should not be necessarily made. Read into this what you will.

ISSUE THREE - Xcite will never move to production - they will be takenover first...

This has never been my assumption, as many of you will know, although I sit in the minority camp on this one with many very well informed posters convinced that Mr Kew has no intentions of managing lots of staff as potentially the North Seas second largest independent oil producer.

Of course Jon cannot mention any talks even if there were any, but he was very convincing when he stated that it is they every intention to bit by bit prove up the Bentley field and extract oil from here....making the point that it is when the oil is extracted commercially that the true value will be unlocked.

ISSUE FOUR Share price expectations.....

My views in this area mirror Jon's. He made the point that it is not realistic to expect all of the possible contingency resources (385 million barrels perhaps by 2014 - my opinion here not Jon's) to be converted into reserves in one go in the approaching report. That is not to say that some will be allocated. However, as an investor the most sensible course is to view the progression of the share price on a long term trajectory with value being unlocked on an incremental basis as bit by bit the enormous potential of the Bentley field (and beyond..) is realised.

Whilst Jon was in no way dismissive of private investors he did make the point that if a few pi's sell off because of a lack of understanding of the a process that has been clearly communicated and because of unrealistic expectations (ie 200 million booked into reserves by April!!!) there is not a lot that Xcite can do about it.

Finally Jon shared all of our disappointment with current reaction to the share price, but he did not seem unduly fazed by it and why would he be!

Conclusion - Be patient and you will be rewarded. If you can't afford to leave money in for 12-18 months you should not be investing in an oily that has not gone into production yet...

Make of the above what you will and I'm sure some will weave conspiracy theories into it, but I will continue to hold and hope to fill my SIPP with these when I have converted my company pension.

The daffodils may not be dancing yet (funnily enough none of mine have flowered yet this year), but I am confident they will be joyful, radiant and triumphant by spring next year.

Patience will be rewarded.

As for the Saudi question, I can't control events in the Middle East and yes there is a risk that a big prolonged spike in the oil price could tip the world into the recession which would result in a large drop in oil price. This would of course have a detrimental effect short term on Xcite. However, I put this to you all, if regimes are toppled do you really think they will turn the oil taps off and refuse investment and development from the major oilies? Surely, they will want to rebuild their infrastructure, lay the foundations for a civil society, share the oil wealth around the citizens. The motivation to boost the state coffers will be hugh. If it leads to a more inclusive less corrupt and more equitable society in the middle east I can wait a few years for my fortune!

NM

Proactive investors - Xcite gears up for a busy year while investors pause to catch their breath

Xcite gears up for a busy year while investors pause to catch their breath

Mon 12:09 pm by Ian Lyall

Xcite has been the standout success story of the oil and gas sector. This time last year the shares were changing hands at around 40 pence.

Xcite Energy (LON:XEL, TSX-V:XEL) said this morning it hopes to complete an updated reserves report by the end of March.

Good news, you’d say. Not quite. The shares tumbled almost 6 per cent as the bout of profit-taking that has afflicted stock in the past month continued. 

“Given the high degree of anticipation surrounding the release of the reserve report we feel the market may be slightly disappointed that this is not the big announcement.  Consequently, the share price may be softer today,” explained Dougie Youngson, oil and gas analyst at City broker Arbuthnot.  

That said investors are probably suffering an acute case of vertigo. In the past year the stock has rocketed a phenomenal 871 per cent, as the group has been transformed from promising exploration minnow to mid-cap development play.  And there are plenty more milestones as the company gears up for first production in the next year.

Earlier Xcite said has appointed TRACS, part of the AGR Group, to carry out the independent assessment of the Bentley Field in the North Sea, which will interpret the data from well 9/3b-6, the company’s first test hole.

“The success of the Bentley 9/3b-6 well test requires Xcite to re-assess all material aspects of the reservoir model as the starting point for the input to the reserves report,” the company said in a bullish update on progress.

“The information and data available from the well is still in the process of being received and collated and the company intends to use as much of this material as possible for input to the reserves report.”

It is already sitting on substantial oil-in-place volumes of between 109 and 235 million barrels. 

However it is heavy oil (10 to 12 degree API) and the big question has always been whether or not Xcite will be able to recover sufficient volumes to make the oilfield development commercially viable.

Last year’s test well provided the answer. The Xcite team conducted multi-rate flow tests, culminating in a final stabilised flow rate of 2,900 stock tank barrels of oil per day.

Ultimately the flow test proved that Xcite would be able to draw up enough of the heavy oil to make the resource commercial.

“Given the quality of the data gained during both the drilling and testing phase, Xcite now has an excellent opportunity to optimise its reservoir model for the Bentley Field,” said Arbuthnot’s Youngson.

The latest reserves report will be focused on the first stage production of Bentley, though it will also provide a further update to the resources on a field-wide basis.

Xcite last published comprehensive reserves data two years ago, which was contained in its competent persons report.

“The company expects the completion of the reserves report to be around the end of March 2011, but will take the time necessary to maximise the value of the report,” the group said in a statement today.

The company is currently scoping and will start drilling in the final three months of 2011. First production is set to begin in the first quarter of 2012, and the ramp up continuing over the remainder of the year. 

“The reserve report is the first major of several major milestones expected this year in anticipation of drilling,” Youngson added. 

“As well as the submission of the finalised development plan we can expect the gaining of various DECC approvals and submission of environmental impact assessments in the next six months.” 

Xcite has been the standout success story of the oil and gas sector. This time last year the shares were changing hands at around 40 pence.

While the year began slowly, the spudding of the appraisal well sparked investor interest in September. 

Just a few short weeks later, a better than expected drilling update from the well’s vertical section took this interest up another gear.

The vertical pilot section of the well encountered a larger than expected oil column towards the end of October.

Xcite shares finally broke through the 300 pence level in early December, and later that month they hit an intra-day high of 425.25 pence as the company unveiled the successful flow results. 

Since then some quite understandable profit-taking has seen the stock pull back.

Source: http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/25959/xcite-gears-up-for-a-busy-year-while-investors-pause-to-catch-their-breath-25959.html

Mixed day for Contrarian Investor uk portfolio

Despite an RNS, stating that Bowleven (BLVN) had started on the Sapele-1 sidetrack Sapele-1ST in the Douala Basin, offshore Cameroon, the shares fell 3p to 331p. The aim of Sapele-1ST is to appraise the Deep Omicron oil discovery encountered in the Sapele-1 exploration well. The well is to be drilled to an estimated vertical depth of circa 3,682 metres (4,761 metres measured depth) approximately 2 kilometres from the Deep Omicron oil discovery in the original vertical well. Drilling is expected to take approximately 40 to 50 days. Bowleven also announced that The Vantage Sapphire jack-up rig has now been contracted and the Sapele-2 well will spud around mid March 2011.

Xcite Energy (XEL) dropped 11.5p (3.5%) to 326p after this morning's news that the reserves report would be available at the end of March rather than early in the month. See earlier post: http://contrarianinvestoruk.blogspot.com/2011/02/xcite-energy-reserves-report-delayed.html

On a more positive note, Sirius (SXX) continued its rebound, rising 5% to 13.4p as realisation returns that the stock was oversold on the fall out from last week's Libyan crisis. Copper company, Weatherly (WTI) also rose 4.4% to 12.88p on strong metal prices. Even Rockhopper (RKH) managed a small gain to finish at 233p.

HSBC results subdue FTSE 100

A poorly received set of results from banking group, HSBC, sent the shares down 4.7% and helped the FTSE 100 finish down 7 points at 5,994. The Dow Industrials are currently up 70 to 12,201 as oil weakened marginally to $97 (U.S. WTI).

HSBC more than doubled its profits to over $19 billion (£11.7 billion) in 2010 versus $7.1 billion in 2009,  as bad debt provisions fell, but a reduced return on equity target due to new capital requirements failed to impress investors. Analysts had also hoped for a profit over $20 billion.  Expenses rose nearly 10% to $37.7 billion with the company blaming new bonus taxes , technology spending and increased marketing costs. 

A steadier day overall with events in North Africa calming down somewhat after last week's panic.

Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway issues annual shareholder letter for 2010

Berkshire Hathaway has released its 2010 Annual Shareholder letter (see full letter at http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2010ltr.pdf).

Some key highlights are:

• The per share book value of Class and Class B stock increased by 13% in 2010. Over the last 46 years, book value has grown from $19 to $95,453, a rate of 20.2% compounded annually (compared with 9.4% for the S&P 500 with dividends included)
• On the acquisition of Burlington North Santa Fe (rail road company) - It now appears this railroad company will increase Berkshire's "normal" earning power by nearly 40% pre-tax and by well over 30% after tax. Berkshire bought the outstanding 77% of Burlington on November 3, 2009, for $100 per share in cash and stock - a deal valued at $44 billion.
• Money will always flow toward opportunity, and there is an abundance of that in America. Commentators today often talk of "great opportunity". But think back, for example, to December 6, 1941, October 18, 1987 and September 20, 2001. No matter how serene today may be, tomorrow is always uncertain.
• Cultures self propagate. Winston Churchill once said "You shape your houses and then they shape you.". That wisdom applies to businesses as well. Bureaucratic procedures beget more bureaucracy, and imperial corporate palaces induce imperious behaviour. (As one wag put it, "You know you're no longer CEO when you get in the back seat of your car and it doesn't move."). At Berkshire's "world headquarters" our annual rent is $270,212. Moreover, the home office investment in furniture, art, Coke dispenser, lunch room, high tech equipment - you name it-totals $301,363. As long as Charlie and I treat your money as if it were your own, Berkshire's managersare likely to be careful with it as well.

On the latter point, I wish more of the fund managers on Wall Street and in London had the same attitude as Mr Buffett and Charlie Munger! The "sage of omaha's" treat for the day is his Diet Coke and steak in the local diner, not Krug and a Michelin star lunch. Less costs = more returns for investors.

The succession to Buffett and Munger is the key question for Berkshire Hathaway investors given their respective, 80 years and 85 years. It will be a hard act to follow. Why can't we have a Berkshire type fund on this side of the Atlantic that could have said to have delivered twice the FTSE All share over decades?

MeDaVinci up 17% today on Express article

I see that MeDaVinci is up 17% today following a positive write-up in the Express on the change to Orogen Gold. Whoops!!

Well it makes my review published at the weekend a little ill timed, I bet the bulls are crying with laughter! However, in fairness to myself, I did point out that the shares would rise short term on the Orogen acquisition noise and PR. But, and this is a big but, I have concerns about this company in general. I guess this is the curse of a blogger, sometimes a review based on all the facts doesn't matter a damn, when private investors pile in on near term sentiment.

But new investors in MVC, please be careful of a "pump and dump", especially with a penny share! Don't just rely on newspaper tips!

Of course, I might be completely wrong on MVC and its going to be a ten bagger. Fair play if it does and good luck to holders. It just doesn't fit the Contrarian Investor uk risk profile. Funny, this AIM share game!

Xcite Energy price fall offers another top up opportunity

So we have a 1 month delay in the reserves.upgrade. Nothing sinister in the RNS. The shares are down 6.5% on the news so its top up time. Bought more at 326p. I am being very greedy, when others are fearful! With 15,000 barrels flowing per day from early 2012, from a North Sea field, seems sensible to me!

Xcite Energy reserves report delayed until end March

Xcite Energy said this morning in an RNS that it hopes to complete an updated reserves report by the end of March, versus the late February or early March timing expected moving the shares down 5 percent at the open.

Xcite said the delay was warranted because it was better to “take the time necessary to maximise the value”. The reserves report will be focused on the first stage production of Bentley, though it will also provide a further update to the resources on a field-wide basis and will allow it to update the Competent Persons Report from 2009 which had indicate reserves of 166 million barrels (109-235 mm barrels).

TRACS (AGR Group) is assessing the Bentley Field, using data from the well 9/3b-6 test conducted in December 2010, which flowed above expectations at 2900 barrels a day despite weather issues and the heavy oil characteristics. The well test also confirmed an oil column which was larger than anticipated, making it likely the reserves report will be good and greater than 250 million barrels.

“The success of the Bentley 9/3b-6 well test requires Xcite to re-assess all material aspects of the reservoir model as the starting point for the input to the reserves report,”

“The information and data available from the well is still in the process of being received and collated and the company intends to use as much of this material as possible for input to the reserves report.”

“The company expects the completion of the reserves report to be around the end of March 2011, but will take the time necessary to maximise the value of the report,”

Looks like a case of waiting a month and trading on any new dips. The prospects for Xcite are superb!

Contrarian Investor UK company reviews to end February 2011

The following company assessments have been made to February 2011:

• Gulf Keystone Petreoleum (GKP)- http://contrarianinvestoruk.blogspot.com/2011/02/gulf-keystone-petroleum-interesting.html
• Xcite Energy(XEL) -http://contrarianinvestoruk.blogspot.com/2011/01/xcite-energy-should-prove-highly.html
• Range Resources (RRL)- http://contrarianinvestoruk.blogspot.com/2011/02/range-resources-look-to-have-good.html
• Weatherly International (WTI)- http://contrarianinvestoruk.blogspot.com/2011/01/weatherly-international-namibian-copper.html
• MeDaVinci (MVC) (Orogen Gold)- http://contrarianinvestoruk.blogspot.com/2011/02/medavinci-ugly-duckling-could-it-be.html
• Vialogy (VIY) - http://contrarianinvestoruk.blogspot.com/2011/02/vialogy-some-good-technology-but-can-it.html
• Sareum Holdings (SAR) - http://contrarianinvestoruk.blogspot.com/2011/02/sareum-holdings-pharmaceutical-cancer.html

Of the 7 companies reviews, Weatherly, Xcite Energy have made it into the Contrarian Investor UK portfolio, though Range Resources was close.