Portfolio Update January 23rd 2010

Falkland Oil and Gas (FOGL) – A volatile week for the Falkland Islands oil exploration companies. For example, FOGL peaked the week at 182p (where profits were taken) and finished Friday at 166p. Following an initial sale, the position was increased at 162p. The Ocean Guardian Rig is now off the coast of Brazil and is expected to arrive in the Falklands in the next 2 weeks. Drilling for Desire Petroleum (DES) will commence by mid-February. Announcements of rig sharing with Rockhopper (RKH) and potentially BHP/FOGL are expected any time soon. With rig arrival, it is expected that publicity for these oil stocks will drive prices higher and investors scramble on board. With these type of shares, its “buy on the rumour, sell on the fact”.

Borders and Southern Petroleum (BOR) and Desire petroleum (DES) – Position continue to be held in these Falkland plays for the reasons above.

GW Pharma (GWP) – Position increased this week as news on Sativex approval continues to be sought.
Coal of Africa (CZA) - Operational update expected any day. News on Vele mine approval anticipated. Position trimmed but still holding.

ITV (ITV) – With the General Election in the U.K. and World Cup expected to boost TV revenues from the very low levels of 2009, this continues to  be a hold. The negotiations for the Contract Rights Renewal are ongoing with the Competition Commission and OFCOM, the formula that dictates ITV’s ad rates. It is widely expected that the rules, which were created at the formation of ITV in 2003 by the merger of Carlton and Granada, will be relaxed. Potential upside from any relaxation in the rules for Product Placement in programming could generate a potential £100 million plus in additional revenues. Though debt is fairly hefty at over £700 million but this has been refinanced during 2009 but it is expected that aggressive cost cutting led by new Chairman Archie Norman should bring this under control. At 57p, ITV is below analyst targets of 70p and may still be a takeover target.

Nighthawk Energy (HAWK) -  Little movement this week, closing at 32p. Holding for drilling update.

Amgen (AMGN) – Despite the significant falls in the Dow Jones Industrial average in the latter part of the week, Amgen remained relatively resilient at $56.6 as a Republican Victory  in a Senate Election made Obama’s healthcare reform programme less likely to proceed drove up pharmaceutical stocks. Holding.

Google (GOOG) -  A trade in Google prior to the results did not produce positive results with a fall from $580 to $550 during the course of yesterday. Decision to sell under review.

Intel (INTC) – Positions trimmed during the week on Nasdaq strength on Monday and Tuesday. Holding  small position

Micron (MU) -  A very poor week for Micron with a fall from close to $11 to $9.13 as the semi conductor sector fell away at the end of the week. Holding but position at loss with purchases averaging $10.2.