Portfolio Update - February 13th 2010

Falklands Oil stocks (Desire Petroleum DES, Falklands Oil and Gas FOGL, Borders and Southern BOR) - Plenty of controversy in the Falkland Islands this week, with The Thor Leader,a ship carrying pipes made by the Techint group in Argentina being stopped in the southern port of Campana because of allegations by the Argentinian government that it was "illegally" supplying drilling equipment to the Falklands.Techint, the world's biggest producer of seamless steel tubing for the oil industry, denied that the equipment was even bound for the Falklands and said it was going to clients in the Mediterranean. The share prices of DES, FOGL and BOR slid on the news but not alarmingly and were more hurt by the strengthening dollar's impact on the price of oil. The Ocean Guardian rig should arrive in the Falklands next week all being well. Continuing to hold all these stocks and anticipating significant volatility as drilling starts for Desire Petroleum.

Coal of Africa (CZA) - Again broadly flat this week at 130p. No news but an interesting interview with Arcellor Mital in Mining weekly which own a stake in CZA and have been touted as being in the game to take over the company - CEO Nonkululeko Nyembezi-Heita said on Wednesday that the group was redoubling its efforts to secure control of additional iron-ore. The decision was aligned to a group strategy of lowering costs through resource ownership rather than to any security of supply concerns, as there was sufficient domestic capacity available for purchase. "We are not concerned about accessing iron-ore, we are concerned about having control over than iron-ore," she explained, adding that the same was true for coal, which underpinned its decision to invest in Coal of Africa.The company requires 10-million tons of iron-ore yearly to meet its annual nameplate steelmaking capacity of 8-million tons. It is currently able to source more than 9-million of that need on favourable terms, paying market-related prices for the balance. However, if it were to grow its capacity, the company would aim to do so in a way that it matched any steelmaking expansion, with an expansion of its upstream resources. "We are now redoubling efforts to be self-sufficient in iron-ore and coal," Nyembezi-Heita explained, adding that the group's loss of participation rights in Sishen South meant that a new approach would have to be pursued. She indicated that the company was ready to partner with BEE explorers in pursuing new iron-ore opportunities in South Africa. Similarly, it would be keen to participate in projects able to produce hard coking coal. At full capacity, the group would consume about 1,8-million of coal yearly.

Nighthawk Energy (HAWK) - Having broken through the 30p mark last week, HAWK is oscillating between 27p and 30p as further news from the Jolly Ranch project is eagerly awaited by investors. The announcement that Lloyds sold a tranche of their holding is the reason for the downward pressure in recent weeks, and hopefully this overhang of stock is now cleared. Positive news from the company's shale oil project is now needed.

ITV (ITV) - ITV closed down around 50p this week as BSkyB finally placed a 10% holding in the market. The position is now down around 10% from the but price. However, the clearance of the uncertainty about the Sky scale now opens the door for a potential take over of this company sometime in the next 12 months as revenues recover.

GW Pharma (GWP) - Little movement this week as news on the Decentralised Procedures for the EU registration of Sativex is still awaited. This is Contrarian Investor's largest holding given the odds of a successful approval seem signficantly higher than a rejection given the strong clinical trial results in multiple sclerosis patients.

Amgen (AMGN) - Despite another positive clinical trial for osteoporosis drug, Prolia, Amgen slipped this week to close around $56 as the pharma sector as a whole was unloved by investors. Holding for news on EU Prolia approval.

Micron Technology (MU) - Micron stock remained at around the $8.5 level as it announced an acquisition of Numonyx for $1.2 billion in stock (see previous article from earlier in the week). Holding

Intel (INTC) - A rise in Intel to around $20.5 on Friday gave an opportunity to sell some of the position bought at $19.

Micron Tech buys fellow memory chip maker Numonyx

Micron Technology (MU) announced last night that it had agreed to buy NOR flash memory chip maker Numonyx Holdings for $1.27 billion in Micron stock. Micron will issue 140 million shares to the holders of Numonyx (Numonyx is owned 45% by Intel, 49% by STM and 6% by Francisco Partners). Micron will also issue the holders up to an additional 10 million shares depending on the price of MU shares over the 20 trading days ending two days before the deal closes.The deal is expected to close in 3-6 months. Micron expects the deal to be positive to the company on free-cash flow and non-GAAP earnings beginning in fiscal year 2011.

Positive results from Amgen's Prolia in head to head clinical study

Amgen (AMGN) announced after the close last night that a third pivotal phase III clinical trial in 1,900 patients showed that osteoporosis drug, Prolia (denosumab) works better than Novartis's Zometa to delay and reduce the risk of fractures and other bone complications in men with advanced prostate cancer. The shares rose nearly 3% after hours to $59. The company said that the trial met all its primary and secondary goals and that full results would be announced at a medical meeting in June.
The latest clinical trial results make European approval even more likely for Prolia and give the company additional data to submit to the FDA following their request in October 2009 for supplementary information. Given Prolia could be a $3 billion plus drug by 2013, the trial news are an excellent boost for Amgen.

SKY reduces stake in ITV by 10% at 48.5p putting potential floor on price

Last night, BSkyB announced that it would not fight a court ruling ordering it to reduce its stake in ITV, from 17.9 per cent to below 7.5 per cent.for apparently being anti-competitive. The stake was bought to block a takever of ITV by Virgin Media in 2006, a decision much criticised and ultimately referred to the Competition Commission in 2007 by the government. Morgan Stanley sold approximately 10.4 per cent of its stake, or 404 million shares at 48.5p, raising about £196 million. ITV closed last night at 51.3p, down 2.3%. Sky bought a 17.9 per cent stake for £940 million in 2006, writing down the value by £801 million to 20p a share over the past two years.


The book building exercise by Morgan Stanley should reduce the uncertainty hanging over the ITV share price and may ultimately open the door for a future predator. At 51.p, ITV is now down over 10% from my buy point and may be under further pressure today with 10% stake sale being sold for 48.5p. However, downward momentum should now be stemmed. Today's share price action will be interesting and for those not invested in ITV may be a good time to wade into the company.

UK dividends on downward path

Dividends payments by U.K. companies reduced by 15% in 2009, with financial cutting their payments by half as the banking sector collapsed. The yield is now estimated to be 3.4% for the UK FTSE All share for 2010. Oil companies (BP and Shell), tobacco stocks (Imperial and BAT), and pharma (GSK, Astra) dominate the top FTSE 100 dividend payers.

DRAM chip price outlook less rosy for second half 2010

S&P cut their rating Micron Technology (MU) on Friday to Hold from Buy, citing reduced expecations for DRAM memory chip prices in 2010. They reduced earnings per share (EPS) forecast for the August 2010 fiscal year to 76 cents, from 84 cents, and cut their target price to $11, from $13. S&P said “Although we think healthy PC demand will continue to support memory demand and shipments this year, we are cutting back our second half DRAM revenue estimates based on our view of increasing supply from leading competitors and lower ASPs."

Micron finished Friday at $8.70, having slide from close to $11 in the last 2 weeks as worries grow about a potential ramp up in DRAM producton from Samsung. The position in Micron is around a $1 down from its buy point, but will hold for now.

Tech earnings results point to recovery not false dawn

Strong earnings from the large technology bell weathers in the U.S., - Microsoft (MSFT), Intel (INTC), Cisco (CSCO), Google (GOOG) and Amazon (AMZN) have so far failed to drive the bears back into hibernation.

Despite the fact that Cisco Systems posted great results for its January quarter, and provided April quarter guidance that significantly exceeded analyst expectations, the news failed to rejuvenate the U.S. NASDAQ at the back end of last week . CEO John Chambers, traditionally regarded as having a very conservative view on his markets, sounded very positive about Cisco's prospects going into 2010. He said the company was seeing a broad-based recovery across all geographies and product sectors and that it was seeing a continued improvement in business spending..  Chambers said. “Our outstanding Q2 results exceeded our expectations and we believe they provide a clear indication that we are entering the second phase of the economic recovery. During the quarter we saw dramatic across the board acceleration and sequential improvement in our business in almost all areas,”. So if Chambers is telling the markets that things are improving for Cisco, then maybe its time to take note given the company's position in so many core areas of IT spending.

Though risk aversion is increasing, the outlook for the global economy seems to be improving, particularly for the technology sector. Signficant weakness in the Nasdaq, should be seen as buying opportunity for the best in breed stocks including Microsoft, Intel and Cisco.

Portfolio Review of the week - February 6th 2010

A tough week for the Contrarian Investor UK portfolio this week as global markets fell heavily on sovereign debt concerns in countries such as Greece. The DOW Jones Industrials briefly fell as low as 9850 yesterday before staging a strong recovery in the last hour of trading to finish higher and back over the 10,000 level. Unfortunately, some long bets on the DOW were closed out at the lows , which was frustrating given the rebound. As I talk about shortly, the investment thesis for the holdings in the portfolio are robust and news flow is expected for most of the holdings in the coming weeks which should be a catalyst for share price appreciation. A sell off in the market that we have seen in the last 2 weeks is a positive development given we are now back in the “good value” zone after the rises in January looked unsustainable and stretched the prices of many stocks. The portfolio is now positioned for any change to a more positive sentiment.



Coal of Africa (CZA) – Finally the news that has been awaited for the last 4 months came through with the South African Government granting the new mining order for the Vele coking coal project. Although the share price initially responded well with a 23% one day rise to 148p, the large falls in global stock markets throughout the latter part of the week and rumours that fellow Coal stock, GCM, were selling down their holding meant that CZA finished the week at 133p, barely unchanged. Based on fundamentals CZA looks very solid – rising prices for metallurgical and thermal coal, increasing production coming on stream from Mooiplaats and now Vele, the acquisition of NuCoal brings on stream further capacity, good off take agreements with the likes of Arcellor Mittal (who own a stake in Coal of Africa). Continuing to hold.


GW Pharma (GWP) - Remarkably robust given the overall market picture, with a small fall to 87p. Sativex Cannabis spray regulatory approval in Europe in final stages. News expected in Q1 2010.


Falkland Islands Oil Shares (Falklands Oil and Gas (FOGL), Desire Petroleum (DES), Borders and Southern Petroleum (BOR) ) - A strengthening in the U.S. dollar this week due to fears about debt default in Portgual, Spain, Italy and Greece sent commodities into free fall this week with WTI Crude Oil dipping below $70 on Friday (after being above $80 in January). In addition, posturing by the Argentininian government about the ownership of the Falklands added to the general uncertainty. The Ocean Guardian Rig hired by Desire Petroleum is due to arrive in the Falklands in the next week or so with drilling due to start mid-February. News from Falklands Oil and Gas (which has a farm in deal with BHP Billiton) on a potential sharing of Ocean Guardian is expected in the next couple of weeks with further news on a deep water rig needed to drill in the deeper waters of the South Falklands basin also on the horizon. Despite heavy falls in the Falklands Islands shares this week, with the rush out of oil stocks and riskier assets, imminent news from the drilling campaign should drive prices higher.


ITV (ITV) – TV company, ITV dropped to 53p this week on the general market weakness. The outlook for TV revenues is solid in 2010 and the management team of Crozier and Norman is looking to streamline the business and review the ongoing strategy of the business. Holding.


Nighthawk Energy (HAWK) – HAWK broke through the long term resistance of 30p this week on the weakness in the oil price and now stands at lows last seen during the March 2009 lows at 27p. Despite reasonably positive news from the Jolly Ranch project last week, and confirmation that substantial news on the field would be released this week, the shares continue to take a tumble. The fundamental investment thesis for HAWK, namely the Jolly Ranch and Revere prospects is unchanged. Though Contrarian Investor UK is disappointed in the short term performance, I will continue to hold as news flow does not support this continued erosion in the share price.


Amgen (AMGN) - The stock price fell from close to $60 earlier in the week to finish at $57.5 as sentiment on pharma stocks was not helped by disappointing results from Pfizer (PFE) and Astra Zeneca (AZN). News on osteoporosis drug, Prolia, is expected in Q1 or early Q2. Holding.


Intel (INTC) and Micron (MU) – Semi conductor stocks took a hammering early in the week with Micron falling close to $8 and Intel dipping below $19. Despite the short term weakness, long term fundamentals look positive for chips consumption in both the consumer and business enterprise segments.

Further falls on markets as gloom about Greek, Spanish, Portugese debt persist

The Dow Jones Industrials fell as much as 180 pts today, with the index currently down around 130 pts to 9,875. Long positions on DOW fell through stop losses at 9,850 rounding off a very poor week for Contrarian Investor. The scale of the falls have surprised me and although weakness was expected after the early January euphoria the S&P 500 falling through 1,050 in the space of a week exposed the volatility and unpredictibility of this market. Given the earnings outlook for this year, many shares seem to represent good value.

U.S. employment data casts further shadow on the market

The U.S. non-farm payrolls employment dropped by 20,000 in January, compared with an expected increase of 15,000. But the unemployment rate unexpectedly moved lower to 9.7%, compared with expectations of 10%. The Dow industrials was recently down 31 pts to 9972 after the news which highlights the fragility of the U.S. labour market and potential weakness of the economic recovery.
 On significant weakness in oil stocks, position increased in Nighthawk Energy at 27p, which fell 7% on the day. Overall the portfolio has suffered steep falls this week, particularly in speculative stocks.

Sovereign debt worries hammer stocks

Debt default worries for Greece, Portugal, and Spain sent stock markets round the world into a tail spin, with the Dow industrials down 2.61% (268 pts) to 10,002. Commodities fell heavily with oil falling 4% to $73 and gold also down 4% or $46 to $1064 as the dollar strengthened with a flight back to safe haven currencies.

After seeing Coal of Africa (CZA) gain over 20% in one day on the Vele mine approval, the stock price has given back its gains over the last 2 days and now stands barely higher at 130p, having risen to as high as 148p. Contrarian Investor was caught out on this one, and though tempted to take some profits on the Vele news, held out for a sell close to 170p. As they say, "A profit, is never a profit until you've banked it!". However, prospects for CZA look very solid with Mooiplatts ramping up production and Vele mine on start up.

A contrarian buy on the Dow Industrials initiated last night with the U.S. unemployment data due at 1.30pm UK time.

Threats from Argentina take shine off Falkland Islands Oil stocks

Fears of a possible blockade of Desire Petroleum's (DES) Ocean Guardian Rig on its route down to the Falkland Islands by Argentinian Civilian vessels sent Falkland Island oil explorers down this morning. The British Ambassador was summoned by the Argentinian Government yesterday so they could convey their opposition to drilling and which the British Government has strongly refuted and reaffirmed the U.K.'s rights over the Islands. Despite the political posturing it is unlikely that military action will be taken. However, the news yet again confirms that the Falkland Island drilling is not for widows or orphans, but that's what makes these stocks so interesting! As they say "you've got to be in it to win it!".

Doubts about Recentin and ex dividend hits Astra Zeneca

Astra Zeneca (AZN) was down over 3% this morning to £28.32 as concerns about whether its bowel cancer drug, Recentin (cediranib) in a head to head phase III clinical against Roche's Avastin would be positive when results are released in the first half of 2010 (Horizon III trial). The stock also went ex-dividend today. Recentin failed a final stage clinical in lung cancer in 2008 and focus is now on colo-rectal cancer.

Contrarian Investor believes a good entry point for AZN would be around the £25 mark.

Coal of Africa comes good with 23% one day gain due to Vele mine approval

Coal of africa (CZA) rose 23% today, with a 28p rise to 147p as confirmation came through that the key Vele mining project has been granted an unconditional mining order (NOMR).CZA currently holds an 80% interest and has an agreement in place to acquire the remaining 20%.


The company has also been granted a conditional NOMR for the Holfontein coal project near the middle of Sasol's Secunda coal production area.The Holfontein NOMR is conditional on delivery of certain documents to the DMR.


This  news fully endorses the decision to invest back in November and Contrarian Investor still sees upside in the price to around £1.80-2.00 in the short term. Holding postions for now. Great news and a significant upside to the portfolio.

Portfolio Update - 30th January 2010. Market weakness makes swimming against tide tough!

Falkland Oil and Gas (FOGL), Desire Petroleum (DES), Borders and Southern (BOR) – All Falkland Oil shares have fallen this week on oil price weakness and investor fight from riskier assets. (As an aside, my contrarian short play on Emerging makets would have eventually played out, after 3 weeks of heavy falls. Frustrating to have closed the shorts just before the drops). Having trimmed by positions as euphoria in the Falklands Oil story hit fever pitch two weeks ago, I have topped up this week on FOGL. Continuing to hold as Desire’s Ocean Guardian rig is due to arrive in the Falklands shortly and drilling will start by mid-February.



Nighthawk (HAWK) – Despite an update on the Jolly Ranch project (which said that the real news was due in February on the status of the drilling campaign), the share price remains stubbornly subdued at 32p. News on the water flooding at the Revere project is also anticipated. Holding at 31.5p.


Coal of Africa (CZA) – News that the acquisition of South Africa coal producer, NuCoal , was completed was not enough to give any positive momentum to the share price which finished the week at 118p. NuCoal should produce 4.2 million tonnes of coal per year. The lack of clarity on the approval process for the Vele project is still unnerving investors despite the fact that the company said it is accelerating capex on the project using some of the proceeds from the placing in October 2009. CZA confirmed that it would commence production of export quality coal in this quarter from it's Mooiplaats mine. Holding


GW Pharma (GWP) – The share price slipped a little this week as the markets generally took a tumble. Position increased on this weakness. Holding for approval news on the cannabis spray for MS, Sativex.


ITV (ITV) – News that ex Royal Mail boss Adam Crozier was appointed as Chief Executive did not cause much excitement in ITV’s stock price. Continuing to hold on expected recovery in TV revenues, hoped deregulation in TV market pricing and product placement.


Amgen (AMGN) – Despite heavy falls in the U.S. markets last week, Amgen had a good week, rising above $58. Some profits taken at $58.5 but continuing to hold core position on anticipation of Prolia (osteoporosis drug) approval in EU in this half of 2010.


INTEL (INTC) – After selling most of the position prior to the results at over $21, weakness in the semiconductor sector this week gave a buying opportunity at below $19 and therefore have reinitiated several positions.


Micron Technology (MU) – The worst performer of the week, having hit close to $11 3 weeks ago, the stock continues to slide close to $8.7 and with an average buy position of just below $10 this is showing a loss. The recent legal settmement between Samsung and Rambus did not help sentiment but concerns that Samsung may ramp up DRAM production or that inventories will rise have not helped the direction of the stock in recent days. Continuing to hold but on review.


Google (GOOG) – Position close at $555 after Q4 results disappointed markets with a fall from over $580. Stock now at $529 and looking at re-entry point.


JP Morgan (JPM) – Position initiated at $39. JPM is one of the better plays in the U.S. financial sector and has fallen heavily in the last 2 weeks from $43-44 range.