If you trade in stocks on AIM (Alternative Investment Market) you need to accept that unlike investing in a FTSE 100 company, swings in the share price of over 10% in a day aren't an uncommon phenomenon. AIM stocks tend to have a large private investor base which can mean a lot of trading in and out on news flow, market makers setting the price and relatively low liquidity (because the number of sellers to buyers and vice versa can quickly move out of equilibrium) resulting in big price spikes up or down.
A wonderful illustration was Sirius Minerals (SXX) today. After rising 10% on Thursday and Friday, an RNS was released this morning with the analytical results from the North Dakota potash drill which has been awaited with great anticipation for the last 6 weeks. First thing the price moved up again to 22p, but it was downhill all the way to 17.25p, a fall of 17%. The shares have had a great run over the last couple of months, from the 8p level in early December (and even lower earlier in 2010) so there are undoubtedly many investors who have made 300%+ gains. So expectation for this latest North Dakota RNS was sky high. There has been talk of this potash reserve being worth $1 billion etc. etc. - i.e. massive hype and expectation. So when the RNS finally came out, the news was relatively underwhelming and probably raised more questions than it answered. Many private investors were probably anticipating confirmation of a massive potash find there and then. So then the sell off started and gathered pace throughout the day.
Was the North Dakota RNS really so bad? The drill results released today were from the first drill with more to follow over the next couple of months. The depth of the Potash looks positive (over 30 feet) but the concentration looks to have raised concerns. It is interesting that Sirius management chose to release the results early since previous communication had confirmed mid-February as the period when the results from the analytical analysis of the seams would be available. The question is why release the results early when although they weren't bad, they weren't overwhelmingly positive either? Perhaps the board believe future news flow over the coming weeks will drive the share price much higher e.g. progress at York Potash or further updates after the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with with Sino-Agri Mining Industry Co. Ltd (a division of China’s second largest fertilizer distributor), to develop Sirius’s property overlying the Adavale Basin in Queensland, Australia. It was probably no accident that the York Potash deal was announced last week to take the pressure off news in North Dakota.
I was annoyed that one of my positions closed on a guaranteed stop at 18p today, especially as I don't usually use stops on AIM stocks. But I still have two significant positions running. I believe that North Dakota still holds strong promise (the company has only done one exploratory drill), there is the potential for a transformational deal with the Chinese in Australia, York Potash seems a sound acquisition and there was a fairly large director buy last week at 17p. Sirius seems to be serious about becoming a major global potash producer and step by step they seem to be moving in the right direction. Global potash use is forecast to grow strongly in coming years so the demand side of the equation doesn't seem to be an issue.
It's volatile and frightening at times to be in these AIM stocks but that's half the fun of it. If you do the homework on fundamentals, then the volatility shouldn't faze you as an investor. Although Sirius is not a "done deal" like Xcite Energy (XEL), it would be surprising if the share price wasn't a lot higher in 2012.
Monday, January 24, 2011
Potentially exciting week of news on portfolio
Lots of potential news due any day on the Contrarian Investor portfolio. As a reminder:
1. Angel Mining (ANGM) - 1st gold pour and shipment from Greenland's Nanulaq mine
2. Xcite Energy (XEL) - Signing of agreement for Rowan Norway jack up rig
3. Rockhopper (RKH) - news from 14/10-3 well on its PL032 licence in the North Falkland Basin
4. Bowleven (BLVN) - update from Cameroon Sapele 1 well.
Plus early to mid-February
1. Xcite Energy (XEL)- upgrade of resources to reserves on Bentley (200 million Plus)
2. Sirius Minerals (SXX) - update from Queensland Australia seismics and Sino-Agri Chinese deal
3. Imagination Technology (IMG) - confirmation from Apple on IPAD2 and Iphone 5 spec
1. Angel Mining (ANGM) - 1st gold pour and shipment from Greenland's Nanulaq mine
2. Xcite Energy (XEL) - Signing of agreement for Rowan Norway jack up rig
3. Rockhopper (RKH) - news from 14/10-3 well on its PL032 licence in the North Falkland Basin
4. Bowleven (BLVN) - update from Cameroon Sapele 1 well.
Plus early to mid-February
1. Xcite Energy (XEL)- upgrade of resources to reserves on Bentley (200 million Plus)
2. Sirius Minerals (SXX) - update from Queensland Australia seismics and Sino-Agri Chinese deal
3. Imagination Technology (IMG) - confirmation from Apple on IPAD2 and Iphone 5 spec
Final tree shake on Xcite?
Looks like the foolish are bailing out of Xcite into Xtract energy (XTR) this morning. Lots of bulletin board posts about Xtract but I think I'll stay put in Xcite.
Why would I move my precious £'s out of Xcite when they have a 200 million barrel field in the North Sea (possibly up to 500 million barrels) which will go into production this year at a rate of 60,000 barrels per day! Whereas with Xtract Energy you are not going to get close to this for years. Plus it's not a core holding for Walter Energy (who recently acquired Western Coal, the previous owners of Xtract) since they are a coking coal specialist. I would bet on a divestment rather than a big investment by Walter.
Mad, but what does Contrarian Investor uk know! Classic "pump and dump", be careful out there!
Why would I move my precious £'s out of Xcite when they have a 200 million barrel field in the North Sea (possibly up to 500 million barrels) which will go into production this year at a rate of 60,000 barrels per day! Whereas with Xtract Energy you are not going to get close to this for years. Plus it's not a core holding for Walter Energy (who recently acquired Western Coal, the previous owners of Xtract) since they are a coking coal specialist. I would bet on a divestment rather than a big investment by Walter.
Mad, but what does Contrarian Investor uk know! Classic "pump and dump", be careful out there!
Portfolio getting a pasting this morning
After some nice gains on Friday driven by Xcite, Bowleven and Sirius, all are down this morning. Sirius is down around 11 percent today after the North Dakota results were no more than in line with expectations and profit takers have moved in selling on the news. Profit now gone on Sirius but I've promised myself I'll avoid trading this one too much since it's more of a medium term play i.e. turn off the computer and check the price in 6 months rather than buying in and out on RNS releases. Angel Mining is up at least. At last! Still waiting on Xcite which has drifted down a couple of pence. Patience will be rewarded .
I couldn't resist buying into Rockhopper (RKH) in a small way this morning. Drilling news due in next week or so in the North Falklands basin. Was hoping for 350p, but at 360p a reasonable entry point. A gamble but only a bit on the table and nothing wrong with a bit of adrenaline!
I couldn't resist buying into Rockhopper (RKH) in a small way this morning. Drilling news due in next week or so in the North Falklands basin. Was hoping for 350p, but at 360p a reasonable entry point. A gamble but only a bit on the table and nothing wrong with a bit of adrenaline!
Sirius Minerals confirms North Dakota potash discovery
Sirius Minerals (sxx) issued an RNS this morning which confirmed that analytical testing had confirmed high quality potash at their North Dakota exploratory drill. Not having a degree in geology, the details of the news are difficult to interpret but it seems the potash layer discovered is sufficiently large to make this is a significant commercial find. More later on this story.
Sunday, January 23, 2011
Xcite CEO Richard Smith at Oil and Gas Outlook Conference north sea Jan 31st
Richard Smith (CEO of Xcite Energy) will be presenting at the Oil and Gas Outlook North Sea 2011 conference, The Marcliffe, Aberdeen.
Conference Day Two – Thursday 31 March 2011 - North Sea opportunities of the future
NEW FRONTIERS FOR EXPLORATION
9.40am
Will heavy oil become a major area for development in the North Sea?
What are the prospects for developing the North Sea’s heavy oil reserves?
What are the specific considerations for heavy oil in the North Sea?
› Mr Richard Smith,
CEO and Director, Xcite Energy
http://www.terrapinn.com/2011/northsea/Programme_5936.stm
Conference Day Two – Thursday 31 March 2011 - North Sea opportunities of the future
NEW FRONTIERS FOR EXPLORATION
9.40am
Will heavy oil become a major area for development in the North Sea?
What are the prospects for developing the North Sea’s heavy oil reserves?
What are the specific considerations for heavy oil in the North Sea?
› Mr Richard Smith,
CEO and Director, Xcite Energy
http://www.terrapinn.com/2011/northsea/Programme_5936.stm
Saturday, January 22, 2011
Xcite rumour dispelled - Rowan Stavanger goes to Talisman
A form 8-K SEC release from Rowan companies yesterday confirms that the Rowan Stavanger is going to Talisman Norway. Looks like Rowan Norway for Xcite assuming all agreed by 31st January with delivery June 2011. Another solid possibility is that Xcite is talking to Talisman (who have operations in the UK North Sea) about using the Rowan Stavanger until the Rowan Norway is available in June 2011.
http://secwatch.com/rdc/8k/events-or-changes-between-quar/2011/1/21/7522190?source=rss
In terms of the funding of the Rowan Norway, in the event that cash is needed to pay for it (other collateral could potentially be used), there should be sufficient money left from the SEDA (Standby Equity Distribution Agreement) arrangement where the company gets cash in exchange for the issue of shares to Yorkville Advisors - the YA Global Master SPV Ltd. From the December 17th RNS, "Xcite Energy (LON:XEL, TSX-V:XEL) has increased its existing Standby Equity Distribution Agreement (SEDA) by £20 million.The company can now raise up to £60 million through the equity line facility.". Alternatively money could be obtained from the Bentley Alliance (BP, Transocean, ADTI, AMEC, Fugro) without needing to resort to alternatives such as a placing. BP have already put in £4 million (see previous post on Alliance - http://contrarianinvestoruk.blogspot.com/2011/01/xcite-energy-should-prove-highly.html). I would guess that the company could also get a loan if necessary on the oil in place resource estimate, which will be converted to reserves in place in February or March. Either way, no big discounted placing.
http://secwatch.com/rdc/8k/events-or-changes-between-quar/2011/1/21/7522190?source=rss
In terms of the funding of the Rowan Norway, in the event that cash is needed to pay for it (other collateral could potentially be used), there should be sufficient money left from the SEDA (Standby Equity Distribution Agreement) arrangement where the company gets cash in exchange for the issue of shares to Yorkville Advisors - the YA Global Master SPV Ltd. From the December 17th RNS, "Xcite Energy (LON:XEL, TSX-V:XEL) has increased its existing Standby Equity Distribution Agreement (SEDA) by £20 million.The company can now raise up to £60 million through the equity line facility.". Alternatively money could be obtained from the Bentley Alliance (BP, Transocean, ADTI, AMEC, Fugro) without needing to resort to alternatives such as a placing. BP have already put in £4 million (see previous post on Alliance - http://contrarianinvestoruk.blogspot.com/2011/01/xcite-energy-should-prove-highly.html). I would guess that the company could also get a loan if necessary on the oil in place resource estimate, which will be converted to reserves in place in February or March. Either way, no big discounted placing.
Rowan Stavanger | * | N-Class | 400 | 35,000 | 2011 | North Sea | Talisman Norway | Low 300s | August 2011 | Rig is under construction with delivery expected in January 2011. Rig received an LOI for approximately 90 to 120 days for accommodation work in the Norwegian Sector of the North Sea.Commencement date is expected to occur between May and August 2011 upon receipt of Norwegian regulatory approval. |
Rowan Norway | * | N-Class | 400 | 35,000 | 2011 | UK North Sea | Xcite Energy | Low 250s | June 2012 | Rig is under construction with delivery expected in June 2011. Received LOI for approximately 240 days. LOI provides for a termination fee of $4 million payable by the customer in the event it does not enter into the drilling contract by January 31 , 2011. Customer is required to provide security in the amount of $30 million for the first 120 days of the contract term by January 31 , 2011. Customer is also required to provide additional security in the amount of $30 million for the second 120 days of the contract term by January 31, 2011. Customer may reduce the contract term to 120 days, in which event it will be required to increase the security from $30 million to $33.6 million and day rate is increased to low 280s . |
Irish people left picking up the pieces after banking disaster
One of my favourite books on the financial sector is Andrew Ross Sorkin's "Too big to fail". Sorkin's book analyses the financial crisis post Lehman Brothers from a U.S. perspective. I have been reading Shane Ross's, "The Bankers: How the Banks Brought Ireland to Its Knees" over the last couple of weeks. Ross looks specifically at the factors behind the collapse of the Irish banking sector.
After being staggered by the sheer greed of some of the leading bankers on Wall Street which led ultimately to the Federal Reserve bail out known as TARP (Toxic Asset Relief Programme), I am even more sickened by the situation in Ireland where the Irish population has been blighted by an IMF/EU bailout. Ireland's Fianna Fáil party seemed to have overseen an unprecedented period of over lax regulation over the banking system. What's more cosy relationships with property developers helped foster a drive for over generous tax breaks which benefitted a few wealthy individuals in the commercial and residential property market. The likes of Allied Irish bank and Bank of Ireland paid their management teams huge bonuses by pumping up profits by investing in the real estate sector. Of course when the Collateralised debt obligation (CDO) and sub-prime mortgage disaster started in the U.S. in 2007 the whole game in Ireland fell apart with the major banks collapsing with huge debts and having to be bailed out by the Irish tax payer.
In late November, Ireland finally agreed to a 85 billion euro bail out from the European Union and IMF which has coincided with a severe austerity package with pay cuts for government staff and tax increases. Irish property prices have collapsed near to 50% in the last 2 years after being pumped up on steroids during the "Celtic Tiger" boom years. It is a sorry tale that ordinary Irish people have been left to pick up the pieces of so much corruption and mismanagement. I am almost relieved that the U.K. situation with the banks seems almost benign compared with across the Irish sea. The Irish have a right to be very angry indeed.
After being staggered by the sheer greed of some of the leading bankers on Wall Street which led ultimately to the Federal Reserve bail out known as TARP (Toxic Asset Relief Programme), I am even more sickened by the situation in Ireland where the Irish population has been blighted by an IMF/EU bailout. Ireland's Fianna Fáil party seemed to have overseen an unprecedented period of over lax regulation over the banking system. What's more cosy relationships with property developers helped foster a drive for over generous tax breaks which benefitted a few wealthy individuals in the commercial and residential property market. The likes of Allied Irish bank and Bank of Ireland paid their management teams huge bonuses by pumping up profits by investing in the real estate sector. Of course when the Collateralised debt obligation (CDO) and sub-prime mortgage disaster started in the U.S. in 2007 the whole game in Ireland fell apart with the major banks collapsing with huge debts and having to be bailed out by the Irish tax payer.
In late November, Ireland finally agreed to a 85 billion euro bail out from the European Union and IMF which has coincided with a severe austerity package with pay cuts for government staff and tax increases. Irish property prices have collapsed near to 50% in the last 2 years after being pumped up on steroids during the "Celtic Tiger" boom years. It is a sorry tale that ordinary Irish people have been left to pick up the pieces of so much corruption and mismanagement. I am almost relieved that the U.K. situation with the banks seems almost benign compared with across the Irish sea. The Irish have a right to be very angry indeed.
Portfolio review of the week - 22nd January 2011
A great deal of volatility in the market to contend with this week but this threw up some good top-up opportunities, particularly in Bowleven (BLVN) and Sirius Minerals (SXX).
Xcite Energy (XEL): After testing 350p early in the week on low volumes, Xcite had a positive move on Thursday and Friday to finish at 368p. There seems to be a very consistent retrace pattern with this company, with the share price dropping by small amounts for several days before stabilising and then starting a move up, presumably instigated by the market makers. Still looking forward to the rig contract signing news and which one by January 31st - Rowan Norway or Rowan Stavanger. The company have signed a Letter of Intent on the Norway but given a cancellation of a contract with BP on the Stavanger which is already built (Norway would not be ready until October), this could offer great opportunities to start production far earlier in the Bentley field. All conjecture of course, but sounds like a credible alternative. Nice rumour anyway. (POST POST NOTE: See http://contrarianinvestoruk.blogspot.com/2011/01/xcite-rumour-dispelled-rowan-stavanger.html). I'm looking forward to a very profitable few weeks on Xcite - the share price should be a lot higher than £3.68 on a field of at least 200 million barrels.
Sirius Minerals (SXX): A major announcement this week with the purchase of NE England potash company, York Potash for £25 million in shares and a management restructuring with Chris Fraser (York's founder) taking over as Sirius's new CEO and MD.
A JORC Exploration Target of between 3.3 and 6 Billion tonnes of 67% to 94% polyhalite and 330 to 400 million tonnes of 35%-40% potassium chloride has been established for the currently contracted area within the York Potash Project. This estimate establishes the project as having one of the world's largest deposits of polyhalite at mineable depth.
The shares have had a good run this week, rising 4p or 24% to 20.75p on the York Potash and director buys. I took the opportunity to buy more on the fall during Thursday, since significant news from the company's North Dakota exploration project is expected mid-February which will make 20p look like a bargain. It is amazing to think that Sirius was 3p or so in August 2010.
Bowleven (BLVN) - Finally a rise in Bowleven's shares on Friday with a 3% increase to 380p. All week the shares have been drifting down as investors wait for further updates from the Sapele 1 well in Cameroon. Early Friday, with the share price down again, I took the plunge and bought more shares. With estimates of oil in place already at 65 to 430 million barrels in the Deep Omicron, mean 217 million barrels this company has great prospects for the future.
Imagination technology (IMG) - I have initiated a position this week on the rumours that the Ipad 2 and Iphone 5 will use IMG chips. Unfortunately this is showing a loss currently but Goldman Sachs issued a broker note this week with a £6 target, currently the shares are £3.84.
Angel Mining (ANGM): A poor week for Angel with the share price drifting down to 5.75p. News of the first gold production from the company's Nanulaq mine is due this month (and hopefully it is positive) as well as an update on progress of preparing the Black Angel zinc/lead mine also in Greenland. "To minimise transport and refining costs, the Company will only ship doré once it has produced an optimal quantity. The first shipment of doré for refining is expected to take place in January 2011" RNS 15th December. Did a couple of buys and sells on this one, but still holding a position at 5.8p.
Overall a good week for the portfolio, with Sirius being the star. I reckon Xcite should be the big mover next week, followed perhaps by Angel on some Nanulaq mine news. The Contrarian Investor UK portfolio has had a nice start to 2011, with a profit edging towards £7000 already because of gains on Bowleven and Xcite earlier in January.
Xcite Energy (XEL): After testing 350p early in the week on low volumes, Xcite had a positive move on Thursday and Friday to finish at 368p. There seems to be a very consistent retrace pattern with this company, with the share price dropping by small amounts for several days before stabilising and then starting a move up, presumably instigated by the market makers. Still looking forward to the rig contract signing news and which one by January 31st - Rowan Norway or Rowan Stavanger. The company have signed a Letter of Intent on the Norway but given a cancellation of a contract with BP on the Stavanger which is already built (Norway would not be ready until October), this could offer great opportunities to start production far earlier in the Bentley field. All conjecture of course, but sounds like a credible alternative. Nice rumour anyway. (POST POST NOTE: See http://contrarianinvestoruk.blogspot.com/2011/01/xcite-rumour-dispelled-rowan-stavanger.html). I'm looking forward to a very profitable few weeks on Xcite - the share price should be a lot higher than £3.68 on a field of at least 200 million barrels.
Sirius Minerals (SXX): A major announcement this week with the purchase of NE England potash company, York Potash for £25 million in shares and a management restructuring with Chris Fraser (York's founder) taking over as Sirius's new CEO and MD.
A JORC Exploration Target of between 3.3 and 6 Billion tonnes of 67% to 94% polyhalite and 330 to 400 million tonnes of 35%-40% potassium chloride has been established for the currently contracted area within the York Potash Project. This estimate establishes the project as having one of the world's largest deposits of polyhalite at mineable depth.
The shares have had a good run this week, rising 4p or 24% to 20.75p on the York Potash and director buys. I took the opportunity to buy more on the fall during Thursday, since significant news from the company's North Dakota exploration project is expected mid-February which will make 20p look like a bargain. It is amazing to think that Sirius was 3p or so in August 2010.
Bowleven (BLVN) - Finally a rise in Bowleven's shares on Friday with a 3% increase to 380p. All week the shares have been drifting down as investors wait for further updates from the Sapele 1 well in Cameroon. Early Friday, with the share price down again, I took the plunge and bought more shares. With estimates of oil in place already at 65 to 430 million barrels in the Deep Omicron, mean 217 million barrels this company has great prospects for the future.
Imagination technology (IMG) - I have initiated a position this week on the rumours that the Ipad 2 and Iphone 5 will use IMG chips. Unfortunately this is showing a loss currently but Goldman Sachs issued a broker note this week with a £6 target, currently the shares are £3.84.
Angel Mining (ANGM): A poor week for Angel with the share price drifting down to 5.75p. News of the first gold production from the company's Nanulaq mine is due this month (and hopefully it is positive) as well as an update on progress of preparing the Black Angel zinc/lead mine also in Greenland. "To minimise transport and refining costs, the Company will only ship doré once it has produced an optimal quantity. The first shipment of doré for refining is expected to take place in January 2011" RNS 15th December. Did a couple of buys and sells on this one, but still holding a position at 5.8p.
Overall a good week for the portfolio, with Sirius being the star. I reckon Xcite should be the big mover next week, followed perhaps by Angel on some Nanulaq mine news. The Contrarian Investor UK portfolio has had a nice start to 2011, with a profit edging towards £7000 already because of gains on Bowleven and Xcite earlier in January.
Friday, January 21, 2011
Google blows out earnings and Larry Page takes over as CEO
Accompanying the very strong Q4 2010 results after the Wall Street closing bell last night it was announced that Larry Page will take over Google's CEO position from Eric Schmidt in April. Co-founder Sergey Brin will focus on strategic projects and Google said, and ex-CEO Schmidt becomes executive chairman.
The continued strength of the internet advertising space was confirmed by the company's 4th quarter 2010 earnings report. Net income rose to $2.54 billion ($7.81 a share), from $1.97 billion ( $6.13), 12 months before. Revenue came in at $6.37 billion, or $8.75 s share versus expectations of $6 billion and $8.06 a share. The shares finished at $635, up $8.
The continued strength of the internet advertising space was confirmed by the company's 4th quarter 2010 earnings report. Net income rose to $2.54 billion ($7.81 a share), from $1.97 billion ( $6.13), 12 months before. Revenue came in at $6.37 billion, or $8.75 s share versus expectations of $6 billion and $8.06 a share. The shares finished at $635, up $8.
Google's core Adwords business seems to be in good health and new businesses such as online display ads and mobile finally seem to be adding to the company's profit momentum and providing some diversification away from pay per click online ads.
So on the corporate earnings front the big U.S. tech players are delivering the goods. Corporate America seems strong, less so "man in main street".
So on the corporate earnings front the big U.S. tech players are delivering the goods. Corporate America seems strong, less so "man in main street".
Thursday, January 20, 2011
FTSE 100 gets a good pasting after China worries
The FTSE 100 fell 109 points today to close at 5,868 on fears that that the Chinese government will be forced to increase interest rates to dampen growth in an economy growing at over 10% in the last quarter of 2010. This meant bad news for commodity stocks on concerns on a fall off of Chinese demand.
Bay day for parts of the portfolio (Sirius, Bowleven, Imagination Tech) as technology and oil stocks were hit hard. On the positive side, Angel mining stayed flat after a weak start and largest holding Xcite finished the day up 7.5p (after rising as much as 16p) in the early afternoon.
Rising commodity prices are beginning to take their toll on some sectors. EasyJet (EZJ) dropped16%, the most in 6 1/2 years, after it said its first-half loss may double after increasing fuel costs due to the high oil price rose and poor weather caused flights to be canceled. Pretax losses for the six months to March 31 will be around £160 million compared with £78.7 million a year earlier. Associated British Foods (ABF) and Dominoes Pizza (DOM), dropped 3% and 6% respectively on fears of the impact of rising food ingredient prices. Prices of many commodities continue to rocket to multi year highs due to bad weather, speculation and the effect of the falling dollar (as many of these commodities are sold in US dollars). Ultimately, this may feed through to rising retail inflation and rising interest rates which will curtail economic growth.
As I predicted in my forecast for 2011, the year would be choppy with many opportunities to buy on corrections and many opportunities to sell on market peaks (see my post on the FTSE and DOW for 2011 http://contrarianinvestoruk.blogspot.com/2011/01/prediction-for-ftse-100-and-dow.html)
Bay day for parts of the portfolio (Sirius, Bowleven, Imagination Tech) as technology and oil stocks were hit hard. On the positive side, Angel mining stayed flat after a weak start and largest holding Xcite finished the day up 7.5p (after rising as much as 16p) in the early afternoon.
Rising commodity prices are beginning to take their toll on some sectors. EasyJet (EZJ) dropped16%, the most in 6 1/2 years, after it said its first-half loss may double after increasing fuel costs due to the high oil price rose and poor weather caused flights to be canceled. Pretax losses for the six months to March 31 will be around £160 million compared with £78.7 million a year earlier. Associated British Foods (ABF) and Dominoes Pizza (DOM), dropped 3% and 6% respectively on fears of the impact of rising food ingredient prices. Prices of many commodities continue to rocket to multi year highs due to bad weather, speculation and the effect of the falling dollar (as many of these commodities are sold in US dollars). Ultimately, this may feed through to rising retail inflation and rising interest rates which will curtail economic growth.
As I predicted in my forecast for 2011, the year would be choppy with many opportunities to buy on corrections and many opportunities to sell on market peaks (see my post on the FTSE and DOW for 2011 http://contrarianinvestoruk.blogspot.com/2011/01/prediction-for-ftse-100-and-dow.html)
At last we have lift off on Xcite!
Price now ticking up strongly on Xcite Energy. Up 15p to 369p. Very tight spread for a change (1p). Looks like oilbarrel presentation has had the desired effect or realisation that news is just around the corner, especially on rig situation.
Google results after the close will point to strength of online ad recovery
Google (GOOG) will post its fourth-quarter results after the closing bell today. Interesting because like Apple it is one of the tech bell weathers on the Nasdaq stock exchange
Analysts expect revenues of $6.1 billion for the quarter (versus $5 billion a year ago) and earnings of $8.06 a share (versus $6.79 a year ago).
Analysts expect revenues of $6.1 billion for the quarter (versus $5 billion a year ago) and earnings of $8.06 a share (versus $6.79 a year ago).
Investors will be watching for:
1. Growth in mobile advertising
2. Whether YouTube and other acquisitions are starting to contribute to earnings e.g. DoubleClick
3. Whether costs are being held in check or whether job hiring continues to grow
4. Growth in Adwords.
The stock currently trades at $630, on a forward price/earnings (p/e) of 18.
Sirius Minerals Investor presentation January 17th 2011
The link to Sirius Minerals (SXX) investor presentation is:
http://www.siriusminerals.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/Sirius-Minerals-Investor-Presentation-17-Jan-2011.pdf
http://www.siriusminerals.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/Sirius-Minerals-Investor-Presentation-17-Jan-2011.pdf
Xcite Energy Oilbarrel presentation YouTube link
Here's the YOUTUBE link to last week's presentation by Charles Lucas Clements (Dir. of Strategy and Business Development) at the Oilbarrel conference in London.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L4mGoRte104
At the 9-10 minute mark, very interesting that he talks about the potential of the share price doubling or trebling is a "fairly safe bet". A bold statement from a Director of a company.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L4mGoRte104
At the 9-10 minute mark, very interesting that he talks about the potential of the share price doubling or trebling is a "fairly safe bet". A bold statement from a Director of a company.
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