Portfolio review of the week May 8th 2010

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 140 points, 1.3%, to close the week at 10,380, despite the Labour Department report showing job growth in April at its fastest pace in four years in the U.S.. The index was was off 5.7% for the week, its worst performance since March 2009, losing 772 points in 4 days. The Nasdaq Composite Index was down 54 points or 2.3% to 2,266. The S&P 500 fell 17 to finish at 1,111 and showing a fall on the week of 6.4%. The FTSE 100 fell 138 points or 2.8% on Friday to close at 5,123. Over the week the FTSE 100 declined 7.8% or 430 points. Over the past month the index is down 11% or 639 points.

What has gone wrong? Investors continue to worry about Europe's debt crisis, particularly Spain and Portugal's situation after the Greek bail out. The Australian resources super tax didn't help as it hit commodity stocks and signs of a slow down in China made Asian investors nervous. Then albeit a sideline issue, the hung parliament situation in the U.K. has not helped sentiment in this country. My worries about the safety of the market when the DOW had moved over 11,000 and the FTSE 100 was trading in the 5,800+ range have been borne out. When stock markets move up week after week (the DOW gained 8 weeks in a row) a correction is inevitable, though the size and speed of the move down has surprised me.

Despite the heavy falls on both side of the Atlantic, the portfolio has done well this week but only because Falkland Island oil explorer, Rockhopper Exploration (RKH) came good. In fact its performance was exceptional. The other holdings have suffered in the sell off, but GW Pharma (GWP) has held on well considering what the indices have done. However, Contract for difference (CFD) bets on the FTSE 100 and DOW industrials were unsuccessful and fell through stop losses and unfortunately ate into the RKH gains.

Rockhopper Exploration (RKH) - After dropping into the mid 30p zone on Wednesday, the announcement on Thursday that the company had found a substantial oil reservoir on its Sea Lion prospect in the North Falklands Islands basin moved the share price to around 92p by close of play. Then the company issued a further update on the quality of the oil in the reservoir on Friday which confirmed the potential quality of the find. The shares shot up a further 51.5p to 145p. It was a week of trading in and out of RKH on Thursday and Friday with some nice profits made. I sold my final tranche at 125p on Friday. No doubt the shares have further to go as news flow on the analysis of the find continues to flow but I will take my profits for now. A drop yesterday to 84p was certainly a classic market maker shake to scare investors into selling and clearly several did. By the afternoon the shares were up 74%.

Not only it is good news for RKH shareholders but clearly good news for UK PLC. There is a talk now of an oil field as large as the North Sea.

GW pharma (GWP) - A good week for GWP as the shares held steady at 116p despite the broader market falls. Awaiting Sativex news which should be due any day now.

Ithaca Energy (IAE) - Despite some good news from the Stella North Sea field in relation to the sidetrack well the shares dropped 25p or 13% this week to finish at 168p. On Friday IAE fell 5% as oil fell to $78 per barrel.

Coal of Africa (CZA) - Coal of Africa shares fell nearly 17% this week to finish at 121p as the global price of coal fell and investors worried about the Australian resources super tax. On Friday CZA confirmed the new Australian tax would have no impact on earnings since they have no sites in Australia. The position initiated at 130p is under water but the prospects look very positive for the medium term especially with the London main market listing due Q2.

Coal of Africa confirms Australian super tax has no effect

Coal of Africa (CZA) issued an RNS this morning confirming that the underlying intention of the Australian resources super tax is the levying of tax on profits arising from the exploitation of non-renewable resources located in Australia. Since the company has no operational projects in Australia, it expects no increased taxation charges resulting from the implementation of the tax. The shares are down 3.5% this morning to 122p. The falls of the last week or so seem overdone given this confirmation and with the Mooiplaats project ramping up production and Vele coming on stream CZA looks a great play for significant earnings growth in 2011.

DOW falls close to 1000 points within minutes then bounces

It was an incredible thing to watch last night as the U.S. market plummeted on seemingly nothing more than more negative reaction to the situation in Greece. Within minutes the Dow Jones Industrials had moved from around 250 points down, to being 992 down to hit 9,867 (-9%). FTSE 100 futures went several hundred points lower at the time. The index recovered relatively quickly and finished at 10,520 a decline of 3%. It was the larggest point drop since Feb. 10, 2009 and largest percentage decline since April 20, 2009, according to Dow Jones Indexes. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 82 points, or 3.4%, to 2,319.

The massive fall has been blamed on automated selling and a potential glitch trade. Shares of Procter & Gamble, one of the Dow components, dropped as much as 37% to under $40, but recovered to close down 2.3% at $60.75. Consultancy firm Accenture, fell to a penny before bouncing back to close at $41.09. 

Rockhopper soars on Falkland Island oil discovery

North Falklands basin oil explorer Rockhopper Exploration (RKH) is currently up 143% to 91p on news that oil has been discovered at the Sea lion prospect. Great news for the Contrarian Investor portfolio given the average purchase price of 42p.  I have taken profits on a large slug of the holding and await further news from the testing programme. It was a case of "nerves of steel" yesterday as Rockhopper's price dropped to around 36p on the general market fall and presumably market makers filling their boots at these low levels in anticipation of an announcement. News clearly leaked this morning before the official RNS as the price had already climbed over 10% by mid morning.

The RNS released at noon today said "Rockhopper Exploration, the North Falkland Basin oil and gas exploration company, is pleased to announce that well 14/10-2on the Sea Lion prospect has reached a depth of 2,744 metres. Initial data collected indicate that this well is an oil discovery, which would be the first in the North Falkland Basin. The Company has run a suite of wireline logs and logging data collected thus far indicate that the well has encountered a 150 metre gross interval of sand and shales. The data show that the well has 53 metres of net pay distributed in multiple pay zones, the thickest of which has a net pay of 25 metres. These pay zones have an average porosity of 19%. Rockhopper now intends to collect additional logging information prior to making a decision whether to plug and abandon the well, or to suspend the well for future testing. The Company is also considering whether to drill an appraisal well on Sea Lion later during the current drilling campaign. Further information will be distributed in due course. It remains the intention of the Company to drill the Ernest prospect in the fourth slot of the overall Falklands Drilling programme.Samuel Moody, Managing Director, commented: "We are extremely excited by the results of this well. While we are presently acquiring additional data, current indications are that we have made the first oil discovery in the North Falkland Basin. We will now focus on analysing inmore detail the data gathered from the well, in addition to continuing preparations for thedrilling of our Ernest prospectlater in the year."

Market stabilises after sell-off

After further falls this morning, the FTSE 100 is currently up 24 points at 5,361 after being down as much as 80 points and DOW futures are up 22 at 10,893. Unfortunately long positions in the FTSE and DOW were stopped out with the falls this morning and yesterday, illustrating the volatility of these markets and the difficulty in playing these short term movements.

Coal of Africa (CZA) has finally moved into positive territory after falling from around 150p to below 120p in less than a week on the general commodity sell off.  My expectation was that CZA would not fall below 120p given the imminent main market listing.  The shares are currently flat at 124p.

It has been reassuring that GW pharma (GWP) has not moved down despite the large market sell off and it is currently up 1.5p to 120p. I am waiting with baited breath for news of Sativex national approval in the UK and Spain.

Ithaca Energy recovers after successful sidetrack well results

After falling as low as 165p today as the UK and Canadian markets fell heavily on concerns about the fall out from the Greece crisis, Ithaca Energy (IAE) recovered to finish flat at 176p on good news from the North Sea Stella field. 

The RNS delivered at 4.30 stated "The sidetrack well (30/6a-8Z) in the Stella field has confirmed a fully hydrocarbon-saturated reservoir interval in the Andrew sandstone. Successful sampling and pressure tests have also provided essential fluid composition information to appropriately size and plan the development of the Stella field. Well 30/6a-8Z was drilled as a geological sidetrack to further appraise the Stella field, in particular to determine the nature of the hydrocarbons at an intermediate depth in the reservoir up-structure from the initial vertical well (30/6a-8). Data acquired during the operation now permit accurate interpolations to be undertaken that define the compositional changes from gas and condensate to oil with increasing depth. No further drill stem testing was required that would enhance existing data already provided by appraisal wells drilled on the crest of the structure. All objectives have been fully met by the drilling programme and the Company can now integrate this latest information into engineering studies and define the most appropriate development strategy. The well intersected an 18 foot (true vertical thickness) section of Paleocene Andrew sandstone reservoir, a similar thickness to that seen in other wells on and near the Stella structure. A full suite of wireline logs have been acquired and indicate porosities up to 27% providing further confirmation of the lateral extent and quality of the reservoir interval. A full set of pressure data has been acquired to allow the Company to commence detailed analysis to determine the depth of the gas/oil contact in the Andrew reservoir, above the light oil encountered in the vertical well (30/6a-8). Data was also gathered over the Ekofisk chalk interval penetrated by the well. Ithaca has commissioned Sproule Associates Limited to provide an updated reserves report that will reflect the results of this drilling programme. The report is expected before the end of Q2 2010, at which time a further announcement will be made. The Stella appraisal programme is complete and it is predicted that the rig will be demobilized after 89 days on location (compared to a pre-drill estimate of 79 days). The final cost of the programme is anticipated to be within budget."

More stock market falls as euro zone worries persist

The FTSE 100 is currently down 50 points to 5,349 and Dow Industrials futures are down 60 points at 10,872 as continuing worries over the health of the euro zone dominate. Investors are concerned that Greece's problems may extend to Spain and Portugal. A national strike in Greece has also not helped sentiment with riots breaking out and flights grounded out of Athens during the afternoon.

The U.S. April ADP employment report also came in slightly light of expectations which has not helped sentiment.

Prudential (PRU) fell 2% to £5.48 as it announced a delay in a rights issue to fund the buy out of  AIG's Asia unit AIA in a $35.5 billion acquisition as the FSA questioned the capital adequacy of the combined company.

Stocks get hammered on both sides of Atlantic

The FTSE 100 finished down 142 points or 2.5% at 5,411 as investors fretted that Greece’s debt crisis could spread to other euro zone members, particularly Portugal and Spain. The DOW Jones Industrials dropped as much as 270 points this afternoon and is currently down 243 points at 10,907. Tech stocks in the U.S. fared even worse with the Nasdaq composite currently down 77 points or 3% to 2,421 with Google (GOOG) down 4.5% to $506 and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) down 7% at 8.6%. The falls in the U.S. were despite upbeat quarterly earnings updates from pharmaceutical companies, Merck (MRK) and Pfizer (PFE). Commodity stocks were hit earlier in the day as news of an Australian mining super tax emerged over the weekend.

Markets suffer on further European debt fears and commodity sell off

Today the euro fell to a 12-month low against the dollar on skepticism over the Greek government's ability to carry out harsh austerity measures required by the EU/IMF aid package. The DOW Jones Industrials are currently down 155 points to 10,996, the Nasdaq composite is down 55 points at 2,441 and the FTSE 100 is down 100 points at 5,441. Although the German government negotiated to provide the majority of the European Union contribution to Greece, there are fears that Angela Merkel may not get a crucial vote passed to allow the aid to be used.

In the UK, miners and BP dragged down the FTSE 100 index. BP (BP.) is currently down 4% to £5.52 on fears that the clean up bill and compensation payments may amount to as much as $10 billion, only some of which will be covered by liability insurance policies. BHP Billiton, Xstrata and Rio Tinto were all down on news of the Australian resources super tax. BHP (BHP) is currently down 7% to £18.86, Xstrata (XTA)is down 6% to £10.21 and Rio (RIO) is down 4.8% to £32.14.


The correction has given an opportunity to start a little buying after several weeks of sells. The FTSE 100 has been bought at 5,431 and DOW at 10,988. Coal of Africa (CZA) position initiated at 130p. Ithaca Energy (IAE) position increased at 176p.

Ithaca Energy drop gives opportunity to buy back

After selling half of my Ithaca Energy (IAE) holding on Friday, an 8% drop today, following a similar fall on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) last night gives an opportunity to buy back. The negative impact of the Australian mining super tax on the commodity sector and a "take profits" story on thisismoney.co.uk helped to move the price down. As far as I'm aware none of Ithaca's assets are based in Australia so the "Henry tax" will not impact earnings.

However, some signifcant news on the sidetrack of the Stella field are expected any day. On 15th April, IAE said "The well will now be geologically sidetracked, as intended, to test the reservoir up-flank between this vertical bore and existing crestal wells to further investigate the quality of the reservoir and provide essential compositional information of the hydrocarbons at intermediate depths. The sidetrack will take approximately 15 days to penetrate the reservoir."

Australian miners fall on new plan for mining tax

The Australian government says it will impose a Resource Super Profits Tax — also known as the Henry Tax, after the Treasury Secretary Ken Henry — starting from July 2012 on earnings after exploration, capital and dividend payments. Officials said the tax would help the Australian economy and make the system "fairer and simpler" for Australia's working families and businesses. The tax on all mining projects there from July 2012 to raise A$12 billion in the first couple of years. The revenues will be used to trim 2 per cent from the company tax rate and increase pension contributions.The minister for Resources and Energy, Martin Ferguson, said that a "significant proportion of funds" raised from the tax "will be returned to the resources industry through a new resource exploration rebate and investments in the infrastructure," and that the mining sector will also benefit from a lower company tax rate.

Prime Minister, Kevin Rudd, said “Resource profits were more than A$80 billion higher over the past decade, but the Australian people received only an additional A$9 billion. BHP is 40 per cent foreign-owned, Rio Tinto is more than 70 per cent foreign-owned. That means these massively increased profits ... built on Australian resources are mostly going overseas. It’s time for the Australian people ... to get a fairer share of the natural wealth of this country, which ultimately is owned by all Australians.”

The news sent mining stocks operating in Australia such as BHP Billiton down around 2% on the U.S. and Australian market's after falling more heavily earlier in the day. BHP Billiton's Chief Executive Martin Kloppers said in a statement that the tax would result in an increase in the total effective tax rate on the company's profit earned from its Australian operations, from about 43% currently to around 57% from 2013. Xstrata PLC's Chief Executive ,Mick Davis, said that the the proposed tax reduces "the very cash flows that are reinvested in maintaining or expanding existing Australian mines and in developing new operations, protecting existing jobs and creating new ones."

Portfolio review of the week May 1st 2010

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 158 points (1.4%) last night to finish at 11,009, as financials fell heavily following the downgrade of Goldman Sachs (GS) to sell. Goldman fell 15 dollars to finish at $145, a fall of over 9%. The Dow ended the week down 1.8%, the first weekly fall in 9 weeks and the worst week since January. The S&P 500 fell 2.5% to finish at 1,187, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 2% to finish at 2,461. The FTSE 100 closed at 5,553 yesterday, a fall of 65 points on the day and a decline of 170 points or 3% for the week as Barclays (BARC) disappointed due to a benign performance in its retail division.

U.S. GDP in the first quarter came in at 3.2%, meeting analyst expectations. The number was driven by an increase consumer spending  in the first quarter and the core inflation rate fell to its lowest number in 51 years.

The oil spill resulting from BP's well in the Gulf of Mexico appears to be worsening and the news from the White House that new domestic offshore oil drilling will be on hold until the investigation of the spill is complete drove down offshore drilling stocks. The operator of the rig Transocean (RIG) finished down 8% at $72, whilst sector peer Noble Corp (NE) dropped 4% to $39.5. 

This week was a good week for the portfolio despite the fall in the overall market. I continue to watch Coal of Africa (CZA) for an entry point which fell this week to below 150p following its quarterly update.

GW Pharma (GWP) - A broker initiation from Rodman and Renshaw with an outperform rating and 300p target sent the company's share's up 10% on Thursday which was quickly following by a 6% fall on Friday to finish at 118p. Some of the holding was sold on Friday morning and bought back later in the day as the price slipped further. News flow is expected over the next 2-3 weeks, particularly the UK/Spanish national application phase for Sativex and then we have the interim results to look forward to on May 18th.

Ithaca Energy (IAE) - Ithaca finished the week at 193p, around flat for the week. Union Securities has issued a broker report with a $4.00 near term target. The report expects the company to produce 5,100 barrels of oil per day in 2010, field development of Athena, Stella, Carna and Polly in the North Sea is expected to increase production 500% within four years. They also say that the Company trades at a large discount to its proven and probable asset value of $5.38.

RockHopper (RKH) - A poor week for Rockhopper with the stock dropping below 40p during the week before finishing at 42.5p, a 9% drop in the last 7 days. News if expected from the Sea Lion prospect in the next couple of weeks. A small holding in RKH, but volatile.

Rodman and Renshaw put 300p target on GW Pharma

Broker Rodman and Renshaw have initiated coverage of GW Pharma (GWP) with a Market Outperform rating and a 300p 12 month target against the current share price of 122p.

They estimate GW to be profitable in 2012 and estimate the company to earn £0.40/share in 2014. Applying a 20X multiple and a 30% annual discount rate they derive a 12-month target price of £3/share (300p).

This moved the share price up 10% yesterday to close at 127p. Profit takers have moved in today and Contrarian Investor UK took the opportunity to top slice the holding with major news not due for a couple weeks yet and the key date being the interim results on May 18th. The shares are currently down 8.5p or 7% to 121p.

U.S. market waits for GDP data

The U.S. Dow Jones Industrial average moved up 122 points last night to finish at 11,167 as fears about Greek debt contagion eased and earnings continued to meet or exceed expectations particularly in the health sector. Bristol Myers (BMS) moved 4% higher after Q1 earnings rose 16% year on year.

Today the FTSE 100 is down around 20 points to 5,601 after a 5% fall in Barclays (BARC) to £3.42 despite a 47% increase in Q1 earnings. Profit before tax from continuing operations rose to £1.82bn from £1.24bn in the first three months of 2009. Investment banking arm, Barclays Capital, earnt £1.47bn, 62% more than Q1 2009. Impairment charges for bad debts dropped 35% to £1.51bn compared with £2.31bn a year ago and 19% less than the figure for the final quarter of 2009, largely due to a £563m reduction to £191m at BarCap. The shares fell because of disappointment at weaker profits in the retail division, with a 6% drop to £403m.

The U.S. GDP data is due at 1.30 pm GMT with an expectation of a 3.2% seasonally adjusted annual rate in the first three months 2010, down from 5.6% in the fourth quarter. This will dicate the direction of the UK and US markets this afternoon.

Market continues to fall as market worries turn to Portugal

The Dow Jones Industrials finished down nearly 2% at 10,992, a fall of 213 points as Greek Debt worries drove  the sell off. The FTSE 100 is currently down 55 points at 5,547 as the Athens stock exchange bans short selling for 2 months to try and stem share price falls and the the Portugal stock market also fell heavily this morning. Focus has shifted to Portugal following S&P's debt downgrade as the next potential bail out victim.


After weeks of looking way too expensive, there are several stocks that are beginning to move into the value zone.