AMAZON - back to tech boom madness!?

With Cramer hugely bullish on Amazon (AMZN) and forecasting a further upside of $74 dollars from its recent $146, 52 week high, this could a nice opportunity to take a contrarian view for those feeling a little brave.


With Amazon stock having increased nearly three times from the $50 it was at the start of 2009, the figures look eye watering! Analyst put the target price at $163, whilst Cramer has cited a figure of $216 based on EPS of $3.60, against consensus of $2.60-$3.00. $216 would mean a forward 2010 price/earnings of 60! Back to the 2000 tech madness again!

With Walmart and Best Buy looking like they’re serious about taking on Amazon on price plus expanding their presence online, achieving this sort of earnings growth looks a high risk proposition. Shorting Amazon seems to make a lot of sense despite the momentum in the other direction and if the company does trip up if any way at all, $146 is going to look expensive never mind $200! A cautious short against the crowd of sentiment.

Non farm payrolls give trading opportunity

With the U.S. employment due at 1.30 GMT, this sets up some trading opportunities.

Short Euro/U.S dollar - if figure is bad, the Euro should depreciate against the dollar as the risk trade is reduced i.e. flight to "quality".

Long Wall street - If the figures beat expectations, Wall street should rise signficiantly. Tight stop loss placed at 10340. Hedges short on Euro, Amazon, Freeport and Caterpillar.

Roll on 1.30!

U.S. Non farm payrolls gives a little Friday excitment

The U.S. employment data is released today at 1 .30 pm UK which is a major piece of news. The forecast is for 10.2% unemployment for November and a 125,000 reduction in jobs. Yesterday's the U.S. markets fell late in the trading day after oscillating between positive and negative territory, driven by weak services data (which drove the Dow down some 100 points) and poor retailer data (notably Abercrombie and Fitch ANF, down 9%) which drove the DOW down 86 pts and the S&P down 9 pts. This resulted in a positive short term, short trade on the Dow, which was closed at the close.

Shorts on Freeport McMoran (FCX), Amazon (AMZN) and Caterpillar (CAT) were initiated yesterday and remain in play. All three stocks all look to have got ahead of themselves.

A short position in Blackrock (BLK) looks interesting given the astronomic rise following the announcement of the Ishares acquisition from Barclays. Holding off for now. Long Dow is a possibility for this morning.