Trades and observations from a British contrarian stock investor

This blog is not intended to give financial advice. Before investing, do your own research and consult your financial adviser if appropriate. The accuracy of any information included is not guaranteed and may be subject to conjecture or interpretation by Contrarian Investor. Therefore visitors should validate all facts using alternative sources where possible.

Wednesday, December 30, 2009

GW PHARMA (GWP) - Lead drug approval close to fruition

ABOUT GW PHARMACEUTICALS

GW Pharmaceuticals (GWP) was founded in 1998 and listed on AIM, a market of the London Stock Exchange, in June 2001. The Group's lead programme is the development of a product portfolio of cannabinoid prescription medicines, including Sativex® Spray. In 1999 GWP commenced its first clinical trials evaluating different cannabinoid formulations as potential treatments in the fields of Multiple Sclerosis and pain. GW focused on the development of Sativex, an oromucosal spray with two principal cannabinoid components, Cannabidiol (CBD) and Delta-9 Tetrahydrocannabinol (THC). Since 1999, the safety and efficacy of Sativex has been studied in over 20 randomised placebo-controlled trials in over 3,000 patients. In 2003, GW entered into its first pharmaceutical licence agreement with Bayer Healthcare AG for the UK marketing rights to Sativex. This agreement was expanded to include Canada later that year. In 2005, GW and Almirall signed a licence agreement granting Almirall exclusive marketing rights to Sativex in Europe (ex-UK). In 2007, GW granted Otsuka the US development and marketing rights to the product.

Sativex was first approved in Canada in 2005 under Health Canada’s Notice of Compliance with conditions (NOC/c) policy for the treatment of neuropathic pain in MS. This approval was extended to cancer pain in 2007. In May 2009, a licence submission was made for Sativex in the UK and Spain for the treatment of MS spasticity. In the United States, the FDA granted a Phase III IND (permission to enter Phase III trials) for Sativex in 2006. A US-focused Phase IIb/III trial in cancer pain is currently ongoing.

SATIVEX APPROVAL IN EUROPE


GW Pharma submitted the European regulatory submission for Sativex for the treatment of spasticity due to Multiple Sclerosis on 20th May 2009. The UK regulatory authority (MHRA) in effect sponsored the application as RMS (Reference Member State). The application is being progressed through the DCP (Decentralised Procedure) which allows simultaneous approval in all EU member states once the paperwork for a MRP (Mutual Recognition Procedure) has been fully approved.



The DCP procedure timings are as follows: "The applicant requests one country to be the Reference Member State (RMS) in the procedure. After 70 days the RMS circulates the first Draft assessment report. The Concerned Member States (CMS) and the applicant can then make their comments. On the 120th day of the assessment procedure, the RMS circulates another Draft assessment report, including comments on the SPC, package leaflet and labelling texts. There is also a Mutual Recognition Procedure during the next 90 days, in which other Member States generally adopt the RMS's assessment, unless they have important objections on the grounds of a potentially serious risk to public health. In such situations, further discussions will also be held in the Coordination group for Mutual recognition and Decentralised procedures (CMD(h)). Once a positive opinion on products has been taken in the Mutual recognition and Decentralised procedure, translations of the SPC, package leaflet and labelling texts are submitted and a national marketing authorisation is issued"

So 210 days from 20th May is 16th December 2009. Approval will be pushed back as the company receives questions (which stops the regulatory clock) and sends in responses. Given the strong phase III clinical trial data, it certainly looks likely that Sativex approval will be granted by March 2010 in the U.K. and Spain and in the rest of Europe by the second half of 2010.





INVESTMENT CASE


Buy initiated at 84.5p. A likely positive outcome for Sativex approval within a 3 month time frame  backed up by a good package of large scale clinical studies plus the backing of 3rd party players such as Bayer makes GW pharma a long play.


Monday, December 28, 2009

Solid prices for Coal in 2010 boost investment case for Coal of Africa (CZA)



Today's Telegraph newspaper has the following quote, "Analysts from JP Morgan reckon that thermal coal, used in power stations, will rise from $70 to $85 per tonne next year, based on rebounding demand from China and India. While global inventories have been unusually high in the downturn, the bank believes stocks may decline from 40m tonnes this year to 22.7m in 2010.

"Supply will be tight in the next two years," said Stevanus Juanda, a mining analyst. "In the second half of 2009, we have observed sizeable imports of coal by China, due to the closure of mines in the Shanxi region and rise in electricity generation."

Experts are also predicting a shortage in coking coal used to make steel over the next year, driven up 12-fold by demand from China.

Macquarie, JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley estimate that prices may jump by between 23pc and 38pc in 2010, as global demand rebounds." *


As production ramps up at Coal of Africa (CZA),this should translate to solid earnings in 2010.



http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/6896140/Old-King-Coal-will-stay-on-the-commodities-throne-for-years.html

Sunday, December 27, 2009

AMGEN - A biotech with news and a reasonable valuation


Last week, the Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use (CHMP) of the European Medicines Agency (EMA) has announced a positive opinion for the marketing authorization of Prolia((TM)) . Prolia (denosumab) is a key bet for Amgen(AMGN) and is critical in weaning the company off its anaemia portfolio.

The licence application for Prolia is for the treatment of osteoporosis in postmenopausal women at increased risk of fractures, and for the treatment of bone loss associated with hormone ablation in men with prostate cancer at increased risk of fractures. If approved by the European Commission, Amgen would receive marketing authorization for Prolia in all European Union (EU) Member States.Approval if expected some time in Q1 2010.

Prolia’s active ingredient, denosumab, has a unique mechanism of action. It is the first and only therapy in late stage development that specifically targets RANK Ligand, an essential regulator of osteoclasts (the cells that break down bone). Administered every six months as a subcutaneous injection just under the skin, denosumab helps stop the process that causes bone loss, resulting in greater bone density, stronger bones and reduced risk for fractures at the spine, hip and other non-vertebral sites.Given its potential to inhibit all stages of osteoclast development through a unique and targeted mechanism, denosumab is also being studied in a range of other bone loss conditions including rheumatoid arthritis, and for its potential to delay bone metastases and inhibit and treat bone destruction in patients with advanced cancer.

The CHMP positive opinion is based on data from six Phase 3 trials. Two Phase 3 pivotal studies with fracture endpoints in the osteoporosis and prostate cancer settings demonstrated that Prolia administered as a subcutaneous injection twice yearly (60mg) reduces the incidence of fractures. All six studies showed

Prolia is also under regulatory review in the United States (U.S.), Switzerland, Australia and Canada for the treatment and prevention of postmenopausal osteoporosis and for the treatment of bone loss in patients undergoing hormone ablation therapy for breast or prostate cancer. The F.D.A. asked Amgen for additional data in late October, which ultimately may require further clinical.

Amgen’s share price is currently $57 and analysts are estimating 2010 earnings at over $5, giving a forward P/E of 11, which is not aggressive for a biotech stock. Recent news that the company has won a patent dispute with Roche relating to its anaemia product, Mircera, gives further reassurance about earnings and the company approved an additional $5 billion stock buy back in Early December (adding to the $1.2 bn left in the previous buyback programme). The 52 week range is $44 - $64.

Given the forthcoming news on Prolia and the unchallenging P/E, Amgen looks to be a good buy for January.

Update on portfolio 27th December 2009





Coal of Africa (CZA): Has risen to £1.00, following buy at 95p, as South African Coal prices for export continue to rise. News on Vele Mine approval still awaited with anticipation.

NightHawk Energy (HAWK): Bought at 35p. After slipping as low as 30p, has stabilised at 33p. News on Jolly Ranch lateral wells and waterflooding at Revere anticipated in early January. News flow should drive signficiant momentum in this stock. The recent takeover of XTO energy by Exxon shows the potential valuations of shale oil/gas plays. An exciting stock to hold for 2010.

Desire Petroleum (DES) and Falklands Oil and Gas (FOGL): Desire purchased at 85p, now at 86p and FOGL at 131p, now at 128p. The Ocean Guardian Rig has reached Las Parmas.

Next leg:
Las Palmas- Recife, Brazil: 2,860 nm @ av. 4.5 kn = 26 days = ETA Recife 19/20 Jan

Last leg:
Recife-FI 1st location: 2,470 nm @ av. 4.5 kn = 23 days = ETA FI [1st location] 12 Feb 2009
@ av. 5 kn = 21 days = ETA FI [1st location] 6 Feb 2009

Amazon (AMZN): Short set at $146. Now at $138. Short closed

Short Dollar/Euro: Euro shorted at 1.51. Short closed at 1.47. Now at 1.43.

Short emerging markets: Shorts placed on JP Morgan Emerging and Templeton Emerging. Both investment trusts have risen since the short. Given momentum in this sector, watching closely with a view to close.

Sunday, December 20, 2009

Investment ideas for 2010



Previous posts on the potential of a Dollar rebound came to a fruition, with a gain of over 2% against the euro last week, hitting a 3 month high, after Greece’s debt downgrade and further evidence that the U.S. economy may be coming out of recession faster than the Euro Zone. But a stronger dollar managed to hold back the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which closed down 143, to 10,329 and the S&P 500 fell 4, or 0.4%, to 1102. The U.S. stock market, has now risen 22% in 2009 and over 60% since the March low.

The U.K. FTSE 100 finished the week at 5,197 down from 5,320 as the fall in commodity prices hit the heavily Oil weighted index due to Shell and B.P..

Strong results from Research in Motion (RIMM) and Oracle (ORCL) both propelled the stocks higher on Friday, and for 2010 Technology is looking increasing interesting. Those companies which have been hit by a contraction in revenues during the recession could see better times in 2010. For example, Media companies such as Google (GOOG) and ITV (ITV) should benefit as advertisers return to the market. Chip manufacturers, like Intel (INTC) have already shown signs that inventories are waning and consumption is slowly increasing both in personal computing and Enterprise.

2010 could start strongly as companies spend the cash they had hoarded, replenishing depleted inventories and begin to take staff on after focusing on cost reduction this year. Analyst expect the S&P 500 companies to earn $76-80 in 2010, , versus $61.33 in 2009. U.S. companies cut capital spending by 16% in 2008 and another 32% in 2009 and cash now makes up 9.7% of their assets, well above the historical norm near 6.2%.. This cash is already being put to use, for example, the recently announced takeover of XTO Energy (XTO) by Exxon, and the purchase of Starent and Tandberg by Cisco (CSCO) in October. The inevitable takeover buzz should help to sustain momentum in the market in Q1 and Q2 next year.

But as the global economy starts to expand, interest rates will begin to rise (as seen in Austalia). This will raise debt costs both for consumers and corporate. A higher U.S. interest rate would normally drive the U.S. dollar higher which will make life harder for exporters. However, the Federal Reserve seems set on an agenda to drive growth not fears of inflation so interest rate increases are likely to be modest. In the U.K., the reliance of the economy on the financial sector, and lower growth than the rest of Europe should mean that U.K. rates stay near 0.5% for much of 2010 which may pressurise the pound in addition to the deteriorating deficit situation. Investing in U.S. stocks therefore seems to be a better prospect than the U.K. during next year.

Recommendations for 2010:

Invest in U.S. tech, media, consumer

Reduce exposure to commodities

Reduce exposure to Emerging markets

Reduce exposure to U.K.

Sunday, December 13, 2009

BEST ONLINE RESOURCES FOR FINANCE

Here’s my favourite web sites for online financial information, many of which are completely free!


PODCASTS
S&A Investor Radio with Frank Curzio: Itunes Store  S&A Investor Radio
Frank Curzio, ex-host of The Real Story Podcast on the Street.com, now at Stansberry hosts this once or twice weekly show focusing on Wall Street.
The Disciplined Investor: Apple Itunes store The Disciplined Investor or go to http://www.thedisciplinedinvestor.com/
Great insights on the U.S. markets  and guests hosted by Andrew Horowitz once a week
Stocks and Jocks:  Itunes Store Stocks and Jocks
Daily show hosted by Tom Haugh and Jon Najarian. Great analysis of the U.S. market, stock ideas and guests.
Thestreet.com Real Story: Itunes stores The Real Story
Now with Greg Greenberg so significantly inferior to the previous host Frank Curzio but useful wrap to the day on Wall Street


FINANCIAL WEBSITES -  U.S. FOCUS
Marketwatch:  www.marketwatch.com
Great news and analysis site and a lot of good content free of charge
Barrons: www.barrons.com
Partly subscription based but good blogs, news content and stock quote information. Plus access to Barrons magazine online.
Thestreet.com: www.thestreet.com     
Good source of news and some commen.tary, though a lot is subscription only these days
Coverage from the U.S. TV station CNBC.


BLOGS – U.S focus
24/7 wall street: www. 247wallstreet.com
Great aggregator of financial blogs, with easy to read lay out.
Seeking alpha: www.seekingalpha.com
Nice list of contributors and very much up to date, breaking news.
Fund my mutual fund: www.fundmymutualfund.com
Lots of interesting commentary on the U.S. market.


FINANCIAL WEBSITES – U.K. FOCUS
Sharecast:  www.sharecast.com
Excellent source of U.K. related financial news
U.K.’s premier discussion site focusing on U.K. companies.
Digital look: www.digitallook.com
Good source of research on UK and international stocks including historical quotes, financials, director buys. Plus good portfolio functionality.
Nice site for real time news, portfolio analysis, real time pricing
Citywire: www.Citywire.co.uk
Similar news content to Sharecast.com, but good coverage of unit trust and investment trust news.
Morningstar: www.morningstar.co.uk
Great coverage of ETF, unit trusts and investment trusts.

FINANCIAL WEBSITES: GENERAL
Reuters: www.reuters.com
Best in class news and analysis site.
Bloomberg: www.bloomberg.com
Coverage of international financial news


U.K NEWSPAPERS
Very comprehensive business coverage.
The Financial times: www.ft.com
Limited access due to pay subscription model, but premier coverage at a price.
The Telegraph: www. Telegraph.co.uk
Good general interest financial stories, with focus on personal finance.

Falkland Islands Oil and Desire Petroleum- Exciting opportunity after years of anticipation


After occasionally dabbling with Falkland oil exploration stocks over the last 10 years with relatively little return and huge volatility ,news flow due in quarter 1 2010 means the region is starting to look an interesting speculative play with potentially signficant upside to the current share prices. 



There are 4 AIM listed explorers in the U.K. which offer exposure to the opportunity - Desire Petroleum (DES), RockerHopper Exploration (RKH), Falkland Oil and Gas (FOGL) and Borders and Southern Petroleum (BOR).

There may be up to 60 billion barrels of oil lying beneath the Falkland Islands in the Southern Atlantic. If the potential of the area is fulfilled it will be comparable in size to the world’s largest oil-field, Ghawar in Saudi Arabia, which is believed to contain around 80 billion barrels. The Falklands' North Basin is a relatively benign drilling region, similar to the North Sea with water depths of no more than 450 metres. It is where Rockhopper Exploration and Desire Petroleum, with privately owned partner Arcadia, are operating.The Southern Basin is where Borders & Southern Petroleum and Falklands Oil & Gas (FOGL) have licences, the latter in a joint venture with global mining giant BHP Billiton.

The North Falklands basin is distinctly different from the Southern Basin. The North is an in land lake in a failed rift system.. As the basin starts to pull a part it gets stretched and the rock thins allowing sediment to be deposited in the gap. The gap being thousands of meters. The lake was probably fed by multiple rivers which carry sediment and deposit it in the lake (basin) in deltaic systems. This is similar to the geology of the Gulf of Mexico delta, Nile delta, offshore Nigeria.

In 1998, Shell, Amerada Hess and Lasmo drilled 6 wells in the Falklands North Basin, five of which had hydrocarbon shows (both oil and gas) and one was dry. In 1999, the Oil majors relinquished their licences as given the geographical location extraction was uneconomic at the prevailing oil price of around $10 . The minors then stepped in. Desire Petroleum was founded in 1996 (named after the sailing ship Desire which made the first confirmed sighting of the Falkland Islands in 1592) and participated in the first round of drilling in the North Falkland Basin in 1998. Desire now operates 6 licences in the area, Tranches C, D, F, I, L and the recently awarded PL034. Over the last 5 years, Desire shares have moved in a range from less than 10p (2003) to 114.5p (20009) as interest in the area has followed movement in the oil price and news flow from the companies involved. In the last 12 months it has had a 52 week range of 40-114.5p.


Things have hotting up for Desire becasue the Ocean Guardian rig is currently being towed into the North Falkland Basin and will arrive in February after leaving the Cromarty Firth in Scotland in late November. In September, Desire agreed a deal with UK driller Diamond Offshore to contract the Ocean Guardian for a minimum four-well campaign. It has since agreed to sell-on two additional option wells to its partner in the region, Rockhopper Exploration.Falkland Oil and Gas, which is working in partnership with BHP Billiton, said it was in talks with Desire over using the Ocean Guardian rig as part of a third contractual slot. Over the minimum 80 day drilling campaign, Ocean Guardian could earn maximum total revenue of US$19.6 million with mobilisation and demobilisation fees estimated to be US$16 million.

In the past month £327million has been raised to explore for oil in the Falklands. On 10th September Desire announced that it was issuing new shares in a placing to institutions (£2 million before expenses) and an open offer (£20 million) at 70 pence per share.The total estimated net proceeds of the Placing and the Open Offer will enable Desire to drill at least two further wells in the planned drilling campaign and / or to have the flexibility to test any successful wells. Desire has signed heads of agreement, with Rockhopper for the take up of two of the six options available for additional drilling. At the end of November, Falklands Oil and Gas (FOGL) placed of 43.5 million new ordinary shares at a price of 115 pence per share to raise $50 million to fund its share of the planned drilling programme in the East Falklands Basin and help the company meet its working capital requirements through to the end of 2011.The company's joint venture with BHP Billiton is seeking a deepwater rig to drill the first ever exploration well in the basin and was in advanced discussions with Desire Petroleum over the Ocean Guardian rig. It is ontracted by Desire to drill a four-well programme and is expected to arrive in Falkland waters in February next year. The rig will be used to drill the Toroa prospect, which is estimated to have prospective reserves of 1.7 billion barrels and a range between 380 million barrels and 2.9 billion barrels.The total mobilisation and drilling costs couple with the modifications required for the rig to enable it to drill in this depth of water will cost the company a total £12 million. Other prospects in the area, lie at greater depths and are best suited for being drilled by a drillship or semi-submersible, with the JV currently looking to contract such a rig later in 2010 to complete its minimum work commitment of two wells and possibly drill other discretionary wells. The cost to FOGL for the use of a deepwater rig and the drilling programme is currently expected to be around £30 million.

Tuesday, December 8, 2009

Bernanke, rates and Dubai add to uncertain outlook

On Friday, the better than expected U.S. jobs number sent the dollar upwards and gold down nearly 5%. But after Ben Bernanke’s speech at yesterday’s Economic Club of Washington he scuppered the suggestion that U.S. interest rates were heading up any time soon. He said, “The improvement in financial conditions this year and the resumption of growth over the summer offer the hope and expectation of continued recover in the new year. However, significant headwinds remain, including tight credit conditions and a weak job market.” This sent the dollar down and reversed the decline in the price of gold.


Today as McDonald’s and 3M earnings disappointed in the U.S. and Tesco failed to hit revenue expectations in the U.K., the Dow was off more than 100 pts and the U.K. Ftse 90 pts. Further debt worries from Dubai also pressurized banks today.

The high volatility of the market underscores that the market is struggling for direction. After seemingly shrugging off Dubai’s worries last week, sentiment seems to be generally weak. However, it is unlikely the market’s will come off too significantly given trading pressure to finish December in strong positive territory.

Sunday, December 6, 2009

A turn in the U.S economy - what now for 2010?

With data flow increasingly indicating that the major economies of the world are either already out of recession or close to it, the period of unprecedented economic stimulation and low interest rates may be coming to an end. Although the Federal Reserve is unlikely to increase interest rates quickly, it would not be unexpected that rates would be on the increase in the second half of 2010.

With a tightening of interest rates on the medium term horizon what does this mean in relation to certain sectors:

1. The down spiral of the dollar against other major currencies will certainly end. Currently investors can borrow at very low U.S. rates and invest elsewhere in the world for greater returns, the so called "carry trade". If U.S. interest rates rise in 2010 this should have the effect of stabilising the dollar and reducing returns on the carry trade. If the U.S. government  acts to get the deficit under control as the country comes out of recession this will accelerate the strengthening of the dollar.

Trade: buy U.S. dollar

2. The earnings of the major financials such as Goldman, JP Morgan, Barclays, Credit Suisse have been helped in recent quarters by the low cost of borrowing and the demise of competitor institutions such as Lehman Brothers. As interest rates rise, making money by borrowing cheap money gets harder.

Trade: Cautious shorts on financial stocks

3. There has been a huge move into gold as fears of hyperinflation grow and as a hedge against the weak U.S. dollar. If the U.S. dollar strengthens this should pressure this trade. Unlike copper, platinum and other precious industrial metals, gold has limited commercial use (apart from Jewellery) and produces no income .

Trade: Short gold

4. Buy consumer sensitive stocks. As the global economy emerges from recession consumer sensitive stocks should do well e.g. P&G, Unilever

Saturday, December 5, 2009

Employment data hunch pays off!

The big news of the day was the U.S. Non-farm payrolls data for November and they were a big surprise to investors with a  fall just 11,000 instead of the consensus forecast of a 125,000 drop. October’s decline was revised to 111,000 from the original estimate of a 190,000 decline. The unemployment rate fell to 10.0%  in November from 10.2%. After trading marginally positive for most of the day, all the U.S. indices reacted very strongly to the upside within seconds of the announcement, with the Dow Industrials rising in excess of 100 points and topping at around 150 pts higher.


As the day progressed, however, stocks pared those gains as commodity focused stocks began to drop as the Dollar strengthened significantly and In addition traders began to worry about the prospect of the Federal Reserve increasing interest rates as the economy recovers and hence increasing company debt servicing costs.  At close, the Dow ended up 22.75 points, or 0.22%, to 10388.90, after being in negative territory for a time.For the week, the Dow gained 79, or 0.77%, its fourth gain in five weeks.
Gold fell over 4% or $49 to $1169 and the dollar strengthened against all major currencies with higher U.S. interest rates driving speculators back into the green back and away from gold.
An exciting day of trading with short Euro/Dollar and long wall street positions being closed through the first few hours after the employment announcement. A short gold positon was well rewarded but was closed at -$18 so could have been a lot more profitable. Shorts on Amazon, Freeport and Caterpillar were also closed with good profits. Long wall street positions placed near the close.

Friday, December 4, 2009

AMAZON - back to tech boom madness!?

With Cramer hugely bullish on Amazon (AMZN) and forecasting a further upside of $74 dollars from its recent $146, 52 week high, this could a nice opportunity to take a contrarian view for those feeling a little brave.


With Amazon stock having increased nearly three times from the $50 it was at the start of 2009, the figures look eye watering! Analyst put the target price at $163, whilst Cramer has cited a figure of $216 based on EPS of $3.60, against consensus of $2.60-$3.00. $216 would mean a forward 2010 price/earnings of 60! Back to the 2000 tech madness again!

With Walmart and Best Buy looking like they’re serious about taking on Amazon on price plus expanding their presence online, achieving this sort of earnings growth looks a high risk proposition. Shorting Amazon seems to make a lot of sense despite the momentum in the other direction and if the company does trip up if any way at all, $146 is going to look expensive never mind $200! A cautious short against the crowd of sentiment.

Non farm payrolls give trading opportunity

With the U.S. employment due at 1.30 GMT, this sets up some trading opportunities.

Short Euro/U.S dollar - if figure is bad, the Euro should depreciate against the dollar as the risk trade is reduced i.e. flight to "quality".

Long Wall street - If the figures beat expectations, Wall street should rise signficiantly. Tight stop loss placed at 10340. Hedges short on Euro, Amazon, Freeport and Caterpillar.

Roll on 1.30!

U.S. Non farm payrolls gives a little Friday excitment

The U.S. employment data is released today at 1 .30 pm UK which is a major piece of news. The forecast is for 10.2% unemployment for November and a 125,000 reduction in jobs. Yesterday's the U.S. markets fell late in the trading day after oscillating between positive and negative territory, driven by weak services data (which drove the Dow down some 100 points) and poor retailer data (notably Abercrombie and Fitch ANF, down 9%) which drove the DOW down 86 pts and the S&P down 9 pts. This resulted in a positive short term, short trade on the Dow, which was closed at the close.

Shorts on Freeport McMoran (FCX), Amazon (AMZN) and Caterpillar (CAT) were initiated yesterday and remain in play. All three stocks all look to have got ahead of themselves.

A short position in Blackrock (BLK) looks interesting given the astronomic rise following the announcement of the Ishares acquisition from Barclays. Holding off for now. Long Dow is a possibility for this morning.

Thursday, December 3, 2009

Appetite for risk continues

Gold continued its unstoppable rise today moving ahead of $1200 an ounce as the dollar fell heavily and the metal continued to have appeal as a safe haven against future inflation risks.In addition some of the emerging markets continue to be heavy gold buyers e.g. India. As some traders talk about $3000 an ounce it feels like we're well into yet another bubble. Remember the Goldman analyst who was talking $200 a barrel oil in 2007? Gold is the new oil! With the dollar getting hammered, it doesn't look like anything can stop the metal's upward momentum. But with everyone piling in, maybe it's going to be time soon to go against the stampede!