Trades and observations from a British contrarian stock investor

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Saturday, May 1, 2010

Portfolio review of the week May 1st 2010

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 158 points (1.4%) last night to finish at 11,009, as financials fell heavily following the downgrade of Goldman Sachs (GS) to sell. Goldman fell 15 dollars to finish at $145, a fall of over 9%. The Dow ended the week down 1.8%, the first weekly fall in 9 weeks and the worst week since January. The S&P 500 fell 2.5% to finish at 1,187, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 2% to finish at 2,461. The FTSE 100 closed at 5,553 yesterday, a fall of 65 points on the day and a decline of 170 points or 3% for the week as Barclays (BARC) disappointed due to a benign performance in its retail division.

U.S. GDP in the first quarter came in at 3.2%, meeting analyst expectations. The number was driven by an increase consumer spending  in the first quarter and the core inflation rate fell to its lowest number in 51 years.

The oil spill resulting from BP's well in the Gulf of Mexico appears to be worsening and the news from the White House that new domestic offshore oil drilling will be on hold until the investigation of the spill is complete drove down offshore drilling stocks. The operator of the rig Transocean (RIG) finished down 8% at $72, whilst sector peer Noble Corp (NE) dropped 4% to $39.5. 

This week was a good week for the portfolio despite the fall in the overall market. I continue to watch Coal of Africa (CZA) for an entry point which fell this week to below 150p following its quarterly update.

GW Pharma (GWP) - A broker initiation from Rodman and Renshaw with an outperform rating and 300p target sent the company's share's up 10% on Thursday which was quickly following by a 6% fall on Friday to finish at 118p. Some of the holding was sold on Friday morning and bought back later in the day as the price slipped further. News flow is expected over the next 2-3 weeks, particularly the UK/Spanish national application phase for Sativex and then we have the interim results to look forward to on May 18th.

Ithaca Energy (IAE) - Ithaca finished the week at 193p, around flat for the week. Union Securities has issued a broker report with a $4.00 near term target. The report expects the company to produce 5,100 barrels of oil per day in 2010, field development of Athena, Stella, Carna and Polly in the North Sea is expected to increase production 500% within four years. They also say that the Company trades at a large discount to its proven and probable asset value of $5.38.

RockHopper (RKH) - A poor week for Rockhopper with the stock dropping below 40p during the week before finishing at 42.5p, a 9% drop in the last 7 days. News if expected from the Sea Lion prospect in the next couple of weeks. A small holding in RKH, but volatile.