Trades and observations from a British contrarian stock investor

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Tuesday, January 26, 2010

Nighthawk Energy Update fails to ignite share price

Nighthawk Energy (HAWK) today updated investors on their key Jolly Ranch project in Colorodo. Unfortunately the market seems to have been signficantly underwhelmed, with an initial rise being followed by a 2.6% fall to 33.25p.

Todays RNS stated that the results to date "reinforcing confidence in the financial viability of the Jolly Ranch asset". David Bramhill (Managing Director) said that "We continue to be encouraged by the appraisal drilling results. Strong progress has been made and our understanding of the project has evolved."

On the face of it, the results seem to be pointing in the right direction. The 15 wells drilled to date on Jolly Ranch have encountered over 150 oil bearing horizons in conventional and non-conventional zones. The Craig 4-33 well has been tested at an average rate of 130 barrels of oil per day (bopd) over a sustained two-week period and is now set to be placed on full production. Three further wells, Craig 10-28, Craig 12-28 and Craig 12-33 are currently undergoing completion and are expected to be placed on production in early February. An additional well, Craig 15-32H will undergo mechanical remediation after three of its four zones were sand fracced with oil.

Patience seems to be required with the real action due to start in February. The RNS today, promised share holder updates on a regular basis. As well as Jolly Ranch the Revere Water Flooding project results are still awaited. Things seem to be proceeding to plan, and I will continue to hold HAWK shares for further drilling updates which may validate the oil in place predictions released in July 2009 of some 1.5 billion barrels of oil in place.

Coal of Africa Completes NuCoal acquisition

South African coal miner, Coal of Africa (CZA) announced today thay the company had completed the acqusiiton of fellow coal miner, Nucoal for 467 South African Rand ($61 million) and this is fully funded by the share placing which took place in October 2009. The remaining proceeds of the placing will be used to accelerate capital expenditure at the Vele Coking Coal project. However news on the Government approval of the Vele Mine does not seem to be addressed.

AMGEN EARNINGS NOT OUTSTANDING, PROLIA APPROVAL KEY

The world's largest biotech, Amgen (AMGN), posted a disappointing Q4 performance after the close yesterday due to slowing sales of Aranesp, Neupogen and Enbrel. The stock price rose 0.8% after hours to finish at $56.20.

The company reported net income of $931 million, or 92 cents a share for Q4, compared with $925 million, or 87 cents a share, for the same period in 2008.Revenue for the quarter increased 2% to $3.81 billion and it reported adjusted earnings per share of $1.05 vs. $1.06 in 2008. Analysts expected Amgen to report earnings of $1.14, on revenue of $3.84 billion.

Amgen said it now sees 2010 revenue coming in between $15.1 billion and $15.5 billion. Adjusted earnings per share are seen between $5.05 and $5.25. Giving a forward P/E of 10.6 assuming earnings at the upper end of the forecast.This was bang in line of EPS of $5.11, on sales of $15.27 billion.

Sales of Amgen's flagship anemia product Epogen rose 9% to $703 million as prices rose, while sales of its newer anemia therapy Aranesp fell 8% to $648 million due to a fall in demand for cancer care related use.

The company announced hat it has submitted additional information to support U.S. approval of its osteoporosis drug Prolia (denosumab), The U.S. FDA said recently it would not consider approving the product until Amgen provided more supporting information. The European advisory body on drug safety recommended the drug for European approval at the end of 2009 and launch is expected during the second half of 2010 on this side of the Atlantic.

Given the low valuation on future earnings and prospects for Prolia, Amgen remains a strong buy for Contrarian Investor. For a biotech stock, Amgen offers good value.