Trades and observations from a British contrarian stock investor

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Tuesday, January 26, 2010

AMGEN EARNINGS NOT OUTSTANDING, PROLIA APPROVAL KEY

The world's largest biotech, Amgen (AMGN), posted a disappointing Q4 performance after the close yesterday due to slowing sales of Aranesp, Neupogen and Enbrel. The stock price rose 0.8% after hours to finish at $56.20.

The company reported net income of $931 million, or 92 cents a share for Q4, compared with $925 million, or 87 cents a share, for the same period in 2008.Revenue for the quarter increased 2% to $3.81 billion and it reported adjusted earnings per share of $1.05 vs. $1.06 in 2008. Analysts expected Amgen to report earnings of $1.14, on revenue of $3.84 billion.

Amgen said it now sees 2010 revenue coming in between $15.1 billion and $15.5 billion. Adjusted earnings per share are seen between $5.05 and $5.25. Giving a forward P/E of 10.6 assuming earnings at the upper end of the forecast.This was bang in line of EPS of $5.11, on sales of $15.27 billion.

Sales of Amgen's flagship anemia product Epogen rose 9% to $703 million as prices rose, while sales of its newer anemia therapy Aranesp fell 8% to $648 million due to a fall in demand for cancer care related use.

The company announced hat it has submitted additional information to support U.S. approval of its osteoporosis drug Prolia (denosumab), The U.S. FDA said recently it would not consider approving the product until Amgen provided more supporting information. The European advisory body on drug safety recommended the drug for European approval at the end of 2009 and launch is expected during the second half of 2010 on this side of the Atlantic.

Given the low valuation on future earnings and prospects for Prolia, Amgen remains a strong buy for Contrarian Investor. For a biotech stock, Amgen offers good value.

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