Trades and observations from a British contrarian stock investor

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Tuesday, February 9, 2010

Positive results from Amgen's Prolia in head to head clinical study

Amgen (AMGN) announced after the close last night that a third pivotal phase III clinical trial in 1,900 patients showed that osteoporosis drug, Prolia (denosumab) works better than Novartis's Zometa to delay and reduce the risk of fractures and other bone complications in men with advanced prostate cancer. The shares rose nearly 3% after hours to $59. The company said that the trial met all its primary and secondary goals and that full results would be announced at a medical meeting in June.
The latest clinical trial results make European approval even more likely for Prolia and give the company additional data to submit to the FDA following their request in October 2009 for supplementary information. Given Prolia could be a $3 billion plus drug by 2013, the trial news are an excellent boost for Amgen.

SKY reduces stake in ITV by 10% at 48.5p putting potential floor on price

Last night, BSkyB announced that it would not fight a court ruling ordering it to reduce its stake in ITV, from 17.9 per cent to below 7.5 per cent.for apparently being anti-competitive. The stake was bought to block a takever of ITV by Virgin Media in 2006, a decision much criticised and ultimately referred to the Competition Commission in 2007 by the government. Morgan Stanley sold approximately 10.4 per cent of its stake, or 404 million shares at 48.5p, raising about £196 million. ITV closed last night at 51.3p, down 2.3%. Sky bought a 17.9 per cent stake for £940 million in 2006, writing down the value by £801 million to 20p a share over the past two years.


The book building exercise by Morgan Stanley should reduce the uncertainty hanging over the ITV share price and may ultimately open the door for a future predator. At 51.p, ITV is now down over 10% from my buy point and may be under further pressure today with 10% stake sale being sold for 48.5p. However, downward momentum should now be stemmed. Today's share price action will be interesting and for those not invested in ITV may be a good time to wade into the company.