Trades and observations from a British contrarian stock investor

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Friday, February 5, 2010

Further falls on markets as gloom about Greek, Spanish, Portugese debt persist

The Dow Jones Industrials fell as much as 180 pts today, with the index currently down around 130 pts to 9,875. Long positions on DOW fell through stop losses at 9,850 rounding off a very poor week for Contrarian Investor. The scale of the falls have surprised me and although weakness was expected after the early January euphoria the S&P 500 falling through 1,050 in the space of a week exposed the volatility and unpredictibility of this market. Given the earnings outlook for this year, many shares seem to represent good value.

U.S. employment data casts further shadow on the market

The U.S. non-farm payrolls employment dropped by 20,000 in January, compared with an expected increase of 15,000. But the unemployment rate unexpectedly moved lower to 9.7%, compared with expectations of 10%. The Dow industrials was recently down 31 pts to 9972 after the news which highlights the fragility of the U.S. labour market and potential weakness of the economic recovery.
 On significant weakness in oil stocks, position increased in Nighthawk Energy at 27p, which fell 7% on the day. Overall the portfolio has suffered steep falls this week, particularly in speculative stocks.

Sovereign debt worries hammer stocks

Debt default worries for Greece, Portugal, and Spain sent stock markets round the world into a tail spin, with the Dow industrials down 2.61% (268 pts) to 10,002. Commodities fell heavily with oil falling 4% to $73 and gold also down 4% or $46 to $1064 as the dollar strengthened with a flight back to safe haven currencies.

After seeing Coal of Africa (CZA) gain over 20% in one day on the Vele mine approval, the stock price has given back its gains over the last 2 days and now stands barely higher at 130p, having risen to as high as 148p. Contrarian Investor was caught out on this one, and though tempted to take some profits on the Vele news, held out for a sell close to 170p. As they say, "A profit, is never a profit until you've banked it!". However, prospects for CZA look very solid with Mooiplatts ramping up production and Vele mine on start up.

A contrarian buy on the Dow Industrials initiated last night with the U.S. unemployment data due at 1.30pm UK time.