Trades and observations from a British contrarian stock investor

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Monday, February 8, 2010

UK dividends on downward path

Dividends payments by U.K. companies reduced by 15% in 2009, with financial cutting their payments by half as the banking sector collapsed. The yield is now estimated to be 3.4% for the UK FTSE All share for 2010. Oil companies (BP and Shell), tobacco stocks (Imperial and BAT), and pharma (GSK, Astra) dominate the top FTSE 100 dividend payers.

DRAM chip price outlook less rosy for second half 2010

S&P cut their rating Micron Technology (MU) on Friday to Hold from Buy, citing reduced expecations for DRAM memory chip prices in 2010. They reduced earnings per share (EPS) forecast for the August 2010 fiscal year to 76 cents, from 84 cents, and cut their target price to $11, from $13. S&P said “Although we think healthy PC demand will continue to support memory demand and shipments this year, we are cutting back our second half DRAM revenue estimates based on our view of increasing supply from leading competitors and lower ASPs."

Micron finished Friday at $8.70, having slide from close to $11 in the last 2 weeks as worries grow about a potential ramp up in DRAM producton from Samsung. The position in Micron is around a $1 down from its buy point, but will hold for now.

Tech earnings results point to recovery not false dawn

Strong earnings from the large technology bell weathers in the U.S., - Microsoft (MSFT), Intel (INTC), Cisco (CSCO), Google (GOOG) and Amazon (AMZN) have so far failed to drive the bears back into hibernation.

Despite the fact that Cisco Systems posted great results for its January quarter, and provided April quarter guidance that significantly exceeded analyst expectations, the news failed to rejuvenate the U.S. NASDAQ at the back end of last week . CEO John Chambers, traditionally regarded as having a very conservative view on his markets, sounded very positive about Cisco's prospects going into 2010. He said the company was seeing a broad-based recovery across all geographies and product sectors and that it was seeing a continued improvement in business spending..  Chambers said. “Our outstanding Q2 results exceeded our expectations and we believe they provide a clear indication that we are entering the second phase of the economic recovery. During the quarter we saw dramatic across the board acceleration and sequential improvement in our business in almost all areas,”. So if Chambers is telling the markets that things are improving for Cisco, then maybe its time to take note given the company's position in so many core areas of IT spending.

Though risk aversion is increasing, the outlook for the global economy seems to be improving, particularly for the technology sector. Signficant weakness in the Nasdaq, should be seen as buying opportunity for the best in breed stocks including Microsoft, Intel and Cisco.