Trades and observations from a British contrarian stock investor

This blog is not intended to give financial advice. Before investing, do your own research and consult your financial adviser if appropriate. The accuracy of any information included is not guaranteed and may be subject to conjecture or interpretation by Contrarian Investor. Therefore visitors should validate all facts using alternative sources where possible.

Friday, January 15, 2010

ITV upgraded by UBS and Product Placement

ITV up 2% this morning as UBS adds ITV to European media most preferred list .

It has been said that goverment proposals to allow U.S. style product placement in programming is good news for ITV. However, whilst certain parts of the industry (particularly ITV) are continuing to lobby hard for it, there have been some strong counter arguments against from bodies as diverse as the BMA & ISBA. IWith the ongoing concerns over alcohol consumption, and with an election due this summer in the U.K., they are unlikely to allow something that with a couple of controversial incidents, could easily be very difficult politically. The recent history of this government & Ofcom, at least when it comes to advertising, has also shown that they usually come down on the side of regulation over liberalisation. Even if the government did decide to allow it in principle, the regulatory framework may be prescriptive, which would require a further, time consuming period of consultation.

Portfolio adjustments January 15th

Yet another disappointing quarterly production update from gold miner Hambledon Mining (HMB) drove the stock down 16% yesterday. Given the huge increase in the Gold price over the last couple of years, the management have failed to keep ongoing maintenance and productivity issues in check, All patience lost with the company and position closed.

Position initiated in Borders and Southern Petroleum (BOR), another Falkland Islands Oil play given likely deep water Rig announcements from Falkland Oil and Gas (FOGL) in the short to medium term and looking cheap on relative valuation to FOGL and Desire Petroleum (DES). Position increased in FOGL following continued strength in the share price, now up over 20% since position started.

Position in JP Morgan (JPM) closed following strength pre earnings and increased in GW Pharma (GWP) on likely news flow relating to Sativex.

INTEL (INTC) produces a great earnings beat!

Intel (INTC) reported a fourth-quarter profit of $2.3 billion, or 40 cents a share, compared with a profit of $234 million, or 4 cents a share for the same period 2008. Revenue was $10.6 billion versus expectations of $10.2 billion, up from $8.2 billion for the same quarter a year before. Adjusted income was 55 cents a share, compared with analyst estimates of 30 cents a share

For the current quarter, Intel said it expected revenue of $9.7 billion, with an a potential upside or downside of $400 million, versus expectations of $9.3 billion, Chief Executive Paul Otellini said in a call with analysts that the outlook for semi conductors was improving and that Intel's major business units posted sequential gains in sales. Its PC client group, focused on chips and other products for desktops, notebooks, netbooks and wireless devices, reported a 10% increase. its data center group, focused on servers, work stations and storage systems, reported a 21% jump Its Netbook Atom products, rose 6%.

The results support the thesis that demand in enterprise and consumer segments is improving as economic recovery gathers pace.

Will be looking to reduce position in INTC on opening strength.