Just to make sure we have a sleepless night on Rockhopper rumours....dreaming of oil or water!

The frenzy continues to build on the Rockhopper bulletin boards. Can't beat the Falklands Islands oil adrenaline! Going to be an interesting week, one way or the other.

Here's a selection of top posts, stirring the rumour pot. Decide for yourselves, whether its nonsense! Conjecture is fun, even if it turns out to be utter XXXX!!!

Its easy to ignore the rumour mill....but a few of the rumours turned out to be true on Rockhopper's Sea Lion discovery and Desire Petroleum water fiasco.

iii 21.36 Hot off the press incoming FI news....GC trader

FI airbridge return flight to UK held over until tomorrow departure...
weather conditions are good...
no technical issues with plane...
decision to delay flight made once plane landed in FI with incoming rig workers...
apparent lockdown for those homeward bound rig workers on the beach...
controlled and monitored calls home to inform of flight delay only...

hmmm... now just why would the FIG do that unless the pending news is HUGE...!!!

drum roll....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=waSTPa0BVpg&feature=fvw

I like a good conspiracy theory me...

ADVFN 7" insulated - Granny7 advfn colebrooke1972

Granny7 - 6 Feb'11 - 17:18 - 15243 of 15243

The 7" casing that shipped out to the OG was insulated so should help in achieving better flow rates...if they find enough to test!

The w/e's Airbridge turned back, for some reason, so was delayed in getting to the FI's...weather has been very good.

iii "borgo22" 14:22 

" Strike confirmed

Egypt developments bode well for safety of a North Sea investment

Latest news are reporting that the Egyptian Vice President Omar Suleiman is in talks with the Muslim Brotherhood to form a new government. I am inclined to be worried about the Muslim Brotherhood controlling this key gateway to the world's trade. The canal has the capacity to handle 2.2 million barrels of oil a day while that of the adjacent Suez-Mediterranean Pipeline is 2.3 million barrels, according to Goldman Sachs Group (actual volumes in 2009 were a combined 2.1 million barrels because of cuts in production by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries). For one I am happy to be holding a large investment in the North Sea rather than in the middle East. The price of oil is unlikely to be moderated significantly with this news.

From the BBC web site (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12313405)

The Muslim Brotherhood, or al-Ikhwan al-Muslimun, is Egypt's oldest and largest Islamist organisation.

Founded by Hassan al-Banna in the 1920s, the group has influenced Islamist movements around the world with its model of political activism combined with Islamic charity work.

The movement initially aimed simply to spread Islamic morals and good works, but soon became involved in politics, particularly the fight to rid Egypt of British colonial control and cleanse it of all Western influence.

Today, though officially banned and subject to frequent repression, the Ikhwan lead public opposition to the ruling National Democratic Party of President Hosni Mubarak, who has been in power since 1981.

While the Ikhwan say that they support democratic principles, one of their stated aims is to create a state ruled by Islamic law, or Sharia. Their most famous slogan, used worldwide, is: "Islam is the solution".

Inflation, strong services and manufacturing data point to interest rate increases

Strong data from the services sector, which now makes up 75% of the U.K. economy (and 80% of jobs), a resilient manufacturing base, and inflation way above target makes interest rate increases likely as we move into 2011. Despite negative GDP growth in Q4 2010, the services data from January has given reassurance that the winter weather causes the dip in the economy and that a further period of contraction was unlikely. Consumer confidence remains weak with VAT (Value added Tax) increasing in January adding to the tale of woe for households, partly as a result of tax rises but also huge increases in fuel and food costs during 2010 and 2011. The UN released data last week that a basket of food commodities was not at an all time high, and Brent Crude went as high as $103 a barrel due to the potential impact on the Suez Canal due the Egyptian crisis.

Expectations are that U.K. interest rates will rise 0.25% in April or May, with further increases in the Autumn, with a 1.25% rate by the end of 2011. Good news for savers, bad for borrowers! The Bank of England MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) meets on February 9th and 10th. It is considered unlikely that the Committee will increase rates at this meeting, but given the data flow and the headline rate of inflation at 3.7%, which is double the BOE target, increases won't be far away.

Arbuthnot's Youngson take on Xcite Energy

FROM PROACTIVE INVESTORS
http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/25128/xcite-energy-city-analyst-looks-ahead-to-bentley-fields-important-milestones--25128.html

Xcite Energy: City analyst looks ahead to Bentley field’s important milestones

Tuesday, February 01, 2011 by Jamie Ashcroft

The recent horizontal appraisal well and flow test proved that the Bentley field could be commercial. Now Xcite is preparing a new CPR which is expected to increase recoverable reserves

Xcite Energy (LON:XEL, TSX-V:XEL)  is likely to become one of the top three independent oil firms in the North Sea as it pushes ahead with the development of the Bentley field, according to Arbuthnot analyst Dougie Youngson.

The recent horizontal appraisal and flow test was one of AIM’s big stories in 2010. For investors the proposition was both clear and binary. 

Xcite was already sitting on substantial oil-in-place volumes between 109 - 235 million barrels. However it is heavy oil (10 to 12 degree API) and the big question was whether or not Xcite would be able to recover sufficient volumes to make the oilfield development commercially viable.

So Xcite drilled the all important 9/3b-6 well, which would conduct a flow test from a horizontal well section across 1,800 feet of gross reservoir.

Frenzied investors poured into the stock ahead of the pivotal well.  In anticipation the shares soared, rising a staggering 550 percent from 65 pence in August to its peak at 425 pence per share as the testing results were announced on 21 December 2010.

The Xcite team conducted multi-rate flow tests, culminating in a final stabilised flow rate of 2,900 stock tank barrels of oil per day.

Ultimately the flow test proved that Xcite would be able to draw up enough of the heavy oil to make the resource commercial.

With all that Xcitement now behind us where does the company go from here? 

First and foremost Xcite and its partners - a group collectively known as the Bentley Alliance which includes AMEC and BP - are working on a new competent persons report (CPR).

Youngson reckons the CPR will boost the field’s current reserves.

“The next major piece of news should be the updated CPR, which we are expecting in late February or early March,” Youngson told Proactive Investors.

He adds: “If you strip out the weather problems that they had, drilling was better than expected and the flow test results were much better than expected as well,” Youngson added.

“So the CPR is going to be pretty interesting because it will see some of the contingent resources moving up into reserves and we’ll get a better feel for how big the project is actually going to be.

“Certainly the higher end of (current) expectations is probably a reasonable assumption.”

Arbuthnot rates Xcite as a ‘strong buy’ with a 600 pence target – which implies around 65 percent upside from the current price of 362 pence per share.

The analyst stressed that the updated CPR will provide the basis for the field’s development plan and drilling is likely to start in the fourth quarter of 2011.

Youngson adds: “If (Xcite) starts drilling early enough we may see a little bit of production this year, but it is really about development drilling and the subsequent ramping up of production into 2012.”

Xcite and the Bentley alliance are considering how they will fund the initial development phase, which will ultimately lead to first oil in 2012.

In the meantime it is keeping its finances in order and revising certain development contracts.

Just this morning it extended a binding letter of intent (LOI) for a production rig - the original LOI was first announced in November and it has been extended twice since then. 

It has been extended by mutual consent to 11 February 2011, with no amendment to the existing US$4 million termination fee payable by Xcite in the event it does not enter into a definitive agreement by this date.

Xcite also secured more short-term funding with a £5 million draw down on its Standby Equity Distribution Agreement (SEDA) with Yorkville Advisors’ investment fund YA Global Master SPV Ltd.

Once the project financing deals are taken care of, the alliance will press ahead with oilfield development.

Xcite shares will have been the standout success story among the portfolio’s of some plucky investors. The stock truly transformed over the past twelve months. This time last year Xcite shares were changing hands at around 40 pence.

While the year began slowly the spudding of the appraisal well sparked investor interest in September. Just a few short weeks later a better than expected drilling update from the well’s vertical section took this interest up another gear.

The vertical pilot section of the well encountered a larger than expected oil column towards the end of October.

Xcite shares finally broke through the 300 pence level in early December, after testing the level a few times in mid-November. The stock reached a new high at 332 pence on 3 December 2010. 

On 21 December Xcite shares rallied sharply as the company announced the news of the successful flow results. The stock hit a new high in of 425.25 pence in intraday trading.

Since then some, quite understandable, profit taking saw the stock pull back to the current level of around 360 pence. With a series of important milestones ahead, it looks like there might be more to come from this popular oil junior.