Saturday, February 5, 2011
Plenty of rumours with Rockhopper and some look credible
Interesting the rumours on the iii.co.uk bulletin board on a Rockhopper oil strike from a respected poster with a good history. Now the pieces are falling in to place why others "in the know"in the City advised topping up last week, though I considered Rockhopper at the upper end of risk compared with my other holdings. I hear a couple of guys from one of the brokers were down in Stanley....and leaking some interesting emails. Some are bull, but one or two look credible with respect to supplies moving out to the Ocean Guardian rig which would only be used if there was hydrocarbon shows. Looks like it may be a nice surprise early next week, or someone's put a hell of a smokescreen in the square mile!
Gordon Gecko, Wall Street and some great quotes
The DVD of WALL STREET 2, Money never sleeps has just come out and it reminded me what a great film, Oliver Stone's original Wall Street (1987) was, with the anti-hero, Gordon Gecko played by Michael Douglas. Strangely enough, Gecko was one of the reason's I originally got interested investing, funny given he's such a nasty piece of work!
Here are my favourite Gecko quotes:
"The point is ladies and gentlemen that greed, for lack of a better word, is good. "
"Ever wonder why fund managers can't beat the S&P 500? 'Cause they're sheep, and sheep get slaughtered. " - HOW TRUE!!!
"If you need a friend, get a dog."
"Lunch is for wimps!"
Here are my favourite Gecko quotes:
"The point is ladies and gentlemen that greed, for lack of a better word, is good. "
"Ever wonder why fund managers can't beat the S&P 500? 'Cause they're sheep, and sheep get slaughtered. " - HOW TRUE!!!
"If you need a friend, get a dog."
"Lunch is for wimps!"
Portfolio review of the week - 5th February 2011
The Dow Jones Industrials ended the week up 2.3% after a 30 point rise on Friday to 12,092 and the FTSE 100 closed the week at 5,997, a rise of 2% for the week.
A mixed non-farm payroll jobs report yesterday gave the markets confidence that the U.S. Federal Reserve would not move quickly to raise interest rate or curtail the quantitative easing programme where it creates money to buy government bonds and other financial assets, in order to increase the supply of money in the economy. Since early 2009 the U.S. government has spent or committed $2.3 trillion dollars to this programme. The theory is that by buying bonds and taking them off the market, the Federal Reserve pushes up their prices and push down their yields which mean lower interest rates for borrowers and encourages spending. In addition, it encourages investors into stocks and corporate bonds which offer higher returns than government bonds and hence it is generally good for investors. The downside of the programme is that it creates inflationary pressure in the economy since in effect the central bank is printing money. The Bank of England has also spent £200 billion on quantitative easing.
On the Contrarian Investor UK portfolio front its been a relatively stable week with just a couple of small additional purchases in Rockhopper Exploration (RKH).
Xcite Energy (XEL) - Xcite finished at £3.62, after a 6p rise on Friday but down 8p for the week. The revised rig deadline of February 11th is now the focus with the speculation behind the delays in signing with British American offshore for the Rowan Norway Jack-up rig intensifying. I agree with the view that it is strange that that the contract signing has been delayed for the second time when the cost and specification of Rowan Norway have been known for so long. I am sure there is something underlying this further postponement - either waiting for early visibility of the CPR (Competent persons report) which will move oil resources to official reserves which is due for publication late February or early March, or a farm in deal or even takeover with a third party. It would be very surprising if the weeks of extra delays are just due to lawyers bickering about contractual terms. t is also interesting that Xcite called on the SEDA (Standby equity drawdown agreement) for an additional £5 million this week, is this drawdown needed for the rig? With February 11th not aware, all will become clearer this week.
Bowleven (BLVN) - Cameroon oil explorer Bowleven had a better day yesterday with a 2.3% rise to £3.57 giving a flat week. No news to report on this one but the Sapele 1 drill update cannot be far away.
Rockhopper (RKH) - A 5% rise on the week but no leaks at all from the progress of the 14/10-3 North Falklands basin well. It's a case of watch and wait.
Weatherly International (WTI), Sirius Minerals, (SXX) Angel Mining (ANGM) -Again nothing to report but I am surprised that an update on gold shipping has not been forthcoming from Angel given it was expected in January. A reasonable 4% rise on WTI as we await further news on the listing of CAR (China Africa Resources) on AIM which is due in April and which WTI shareholders will get an automatic holding.
Next step should be more interesting on the RNS front, potentially we have - Xcite Energy (rig news), Angel (gold shipment update), Bowleven (Sapele 1 update) and most importantly Rockhopper (14/10-3 well update). Hopefully more to write about next week!
Imagination Tech (IMG) - Unfortunately this fell through a stop loss and position closed.
A mixed non-farm payroll jobs report yesterday gave the markets confidence that the U.S. Federal Reserve would not move quickly to raise interest rate or curtail the quantitative easing programme where it creates money to buy government bonds and other financial assets, in order to increase the supply of money in the economy. Since early 2009 the U.S. government has spent or committed $2.3 trillion dollars to this programme. The theory is that by buying bonds and taking them off the market, the Federal Reserve pushes up their prices and push down their yields which mean lower interest rates for borrowers and encourages spending. In addition, it encourages investors into stocks and corporate bonds which offer higher returns than government bonds and hence it is generally good for investors. The downside of the programme is that it creates inflationary pressure in the economy since in effect the central bank is printing money. The Bank of England has also spent £200 billion on quantitative easing.
On the Contrarian Investor UK portfolio front its been a relatively stable week with just a couple of small additional purchases in Rockhopper Exploration (RKH).
Xcite Energy (XEL) - Xcite finished at £3.62, after a 6p rise on Friday but down 8p for the week. The revised rig deadline of February 11th is now the focus with the speculation behind the delays in signing with British American offshore for the Rowan Norway Jack-up rig intensifying. I agree with the view that it is strange that that the contract signing has been delayed for the second time when the cost and specification of Rowan Norway have been known for so long. I am sure there is something underlying this further postponement - either waiting for early visibility of the CPR (Competent persons report) which will move oil resources to official reserves which is due for publication late February or early March, or a farm in deal or even takeover with a third party. It would be very surprising if the weeks of extra delays are just due to lawyers bickering about contractual terms. t is also interesting that Xcite called on the SEDA (Standby equity drawdown agreement) for an additional £5 million this week, is this drawdown needed for the rig? With February 11th not aware, all will become clearer this week.
Bowleven (BLVN) - Cameroon oil explorer Bowleven had a better day yesterday with a 2.3% rise to £3.57 giving a flat week. No news to report on this one but the Sapele 1 drill update cannot be far away.
Rockhopper (RKH) - A 5% rise on the week but no leaks at all from the progress of the 14/10-3 North Falklands basin well. It's a case of watch and wait.
Weatherly International (WTI), Sirius Minerals, (SXX) Angel Mining (ANGM) -Again nothing to report but I am surprised that an update on gold shipping has not been forthcoming from Angel given it was expected in January. A reasonable 4% rise on WTI as we await further news on the listing of CAR (China Africa Resources) on AIM which is due in April and which WTI shareholders will get an automatic holding.
Next step should be more interesting on the RNS front, potentially we have - Xcite Energy (rig news), Angel (gold shipment update), Bowleven (Sapele 1 update) and most importantly Rockhopper (14/10-3 well update). Hopefully more to write about next week!
Imagination Tech (IMG) - Unfortunately this fell through a stop loss and position closed.
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