Trades and observations from a British contrarian stock investor

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Wednesday, January 13, 2010

Alcoa disapointment delivers weak start to U.S. earnings season

Dow Jones Industrial component, Alcoa (AA) delivered disappointing fourth quarter 2009 results after the close on Monday, causing an 11% drop in the price to $15.52 (-$1.93) and leading the Dow industrials down 36 to 10,627. The FTSE 100 dropped 39 to 5,499. After Monday's closing bell, Alcoa reported a quarterly net loss of $277 million, or 28 cents a share, compared to a year-earlier loss of $1.2 billion or $1.49 a share, when aluminium prices collapsed.

Analysts had expected the company to earn 5 cents a share on sales of $4.9 billion. Excluding charges, Alcoa said it earned 1 cent a share worrying the markets that economic recovery may be slower than anticipated. A short term buy trade in Alcoa prior to the earnings release therefore disappointed and the position was closed at the open yesterday. 



Weakness in semiconductor stocks gave a good re-entry point for Micron (MU) and for an increase in the Intel (INTC) position with the results due Thursday.



After initially moving into positive territory, Amgen 's (AMGN) price was hit as it said 2009 earnings would come in close to the low end of its forecast, sending its shares down a most 2 percent at one point before closing the session down 1% at $56.03. Continued uncertainty about Amgen's potential block buster osteoporosis drug Prolia (denosumab) also weighed on the stock, as the company said it has not yet responded to a regulatory request for more information on the drug.

Speaking at the JP Morgan Healthcare conference on Tuesday, Chief Executive Officer Kevin Sharer said the company's full-year earnings would be close to the low end of its forecast of $4.90 to $5.05 per share. Analysts on average expected $5.04 per share. 2009 revenue would be at the midpoint of the company's projection of $14.4 billion to $14.8 billion. Analysts were looking for $14.7 billion. Sharer confirmed $4 billion in cash at the end of the 3rd quarter.



A drop in JP Morgan (JPM) to close to $43 at one point during the trading session gave a buying opportunity with results due Friday.


In the U.K., Falkland Islands oil play, Falklands Oil and Gas continued its upward move, rising 7.5 or 5% to 153p as Investec declared a 5% notifiable interest in the stock.