Trades and observations from a British contrarian stock investor

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Tuesday, April 6, 2010

Rockhopper gains as much as 20%

Rockhopper Exploration (RKH) gained as much as 20% (and has now settled 16% up) this afternoon as Desire Petroleum (DES) issued another news release about the Liz well saying that the well was being plugged and abandoned as a gas discovery. DES said that 17 metres of net  "hydrocarbon pay' were encountered between 2961 and 3031 metres but the reservoir quality was poor. The Ocean Guardian rig is now moving to the Rockhopper's Sea Lion site and spudding is expected towards the end of the week. After rising as much as 20% on the news,  2/3 of the Rockhopper position and the Falklands Oil and Gas (FOGL) position were closed for solid profits as results from the Rockhopper well will not be available for around a month following the spud.

Steady drop in GW Pharma share price as we await Sativex UK approval

GW Pharma (GWP) dropped today to 112p to buy, around 12% higher than following the announcement of a positive regulatory assessment on the safety, quality, efficacy of Sativex 3 weeks ago. Since approval of the product in multiple sclerosis is more or less assured in May and a UK launch due by end of Q2, the current share price seems to a good opportunity to increase exposure given the fall from close to 130p at the time of the positive clinical trial in cancer pain in early March.  Volume is very light and the share price looks like it is being walked down by the market makers. The question of course is whether the downward trend of 1-2p price falls per day will end. The market cap is only £145 million and a £10 million payment is due from Bayer Schering and £2.5 million from Almirall on licence approval.

Copper prices up 300% since lows of early 2009 to $8000/tonne

London copper futures rose to their highest level since August 2008 to move over $8000 per tonne, another worrying signal of an overheating commodity sector. The all time record for copper prices was $8,860. Copper prices have nearly tripled from a low of $3,328 per tonne reached in February 2009, with a gain of 20% year to date. The second quarter of the year typically sees Chinese copper demand surge as copper consumers fire up production after the Lunar New Year holidays in January or February. China's 10.7% growth in fourth-quarter gross domestic product are driving demand for the metal. Santiago Gonzalez, Chile's Mine minister recently said the disparity between stocks and prices is the greatest in 20 years, and that the situation is being closely monitored.