After a week of significant volatility, markets fell heavily yesterday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling on disappointing jobs news from the U.S. and fears of a spread in the European debt crisis due to Hungary. The Dow fell 323 points, or 3.2%, to 9,931 and finished the week below the key 10,000 mark and 2% lower for the week. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 84 points or 3.6% on Friday to finish at 2,219 and down 1.7% for the week. The S&P 500 dropped 3.44% or 38 points to 1,065 with a fall of 2.3% for the week. The FTSE 100 fell 85 points or 1.6% to 5,126 on Friday and finished down 1.2% for the week. However, FTSE futures are pointing to another 50 point drop on Monday since the worst of the Wall Street falls were not seen until after the close of the European markets.
Industrial and infrastructure stocks (e.g. Caterpillar CAT down 5.5% at $57.7) were hit particularly hard as a weakening euro means that revenues will be hit as the sales are translated back to dollars on currency conversion, plus any weakening of the European economies will hold back sales volumes. In addition, a weakening of commodity prices such as oil (which dropped over 4% to $71) and banking fears hit financials, energy and commodity stocks - Conoco Philipps (COP) was down 3.7% to $50, Barclays (BARC) was down 4.7% to £2.88, BHP Billioton (BHP) dropped 3.7% to £17.71.
The key reason for the decline was that U.S. non farm payrolls rose by only 431,000 last month, short of expectations for a rise of 515,000 jobs. Most of the rise was due to temporary census staff hiring (which created 411,000 jobs) and only 41,000 private sector jobs were created (against 218,000 in April). There were also downward revisions to payrolls in March and April, both 22,000 lower at 208,000 and 290,000 respectively. The unemployment rate dropped to 9.7% in May from 9.9% the previous month, in line with expectations.
On top of this the euro got a battering with a fall below the $1.20 level against the dollar being the lowest point for four years as fears that Hungary may suffer a Greek style debt crisis emerged. Hungary is in the European union but not part of the euro. However, after the concerns about Spain last week, worries about Hungary have given investors plenty of reasons to be pessimistic about the state of European finances and the health of its banks. A spokesman for Viktor Orban, the Hungarian Prime Minister, suggested that his country had only a slim chance of avoiding a Greek-style debt crisis. Peter Szijjarto, the Prime Minister’s spokesman, said that his Government was “ready to avoid the path that Greece took ... After realising what reality is, we will not hesitate to act.” The potential exposure to any Hungarian default by European markets is a stark reminder that the write-down's of the banks may not be over.
The Contrarian Investor UK portfolio has had limited trading over the last 2 weeks due to holiday. But positions were initiated in Coal of Africa (CZA) at 104p and BP at £4.19. The Coal of Africa position is retained but BP was sold on Thursday at £4.50. Short term trades were all put in play on Barclays (BARC), Man Group (MAN) and Prudential (PRU) which were all closed within a day or two as the market rebounded from the market falls late in May. The falls of last week have put some interesting opportunities on the table and I will take these on any further weakness during the early part of next week especially if the FTSE moves below 5000 again. Any fall in the U.S. S&P 500 below the key technical 1,050 level will be watched with interest.
It was disappointing not to be involved in the huge spike in the Falkland Islands oil shares yesterday after Rockhopper (RKH) issued a very positive technical update on its Sealion oil find in the North Falklands basin. RKH finished up 33% at £3.19, Desire Petroleum (DES) was up 22% at £1.00 and Falklands Oil and Gas (FOGL) was 10.5% at £2.06. Rockhopper upgraded the size of the find to 242 million barrels recoverable with further increases likely. After seeing the price drop to below a £1.00 on Wednesday on false rumours of a poor quality oil discovery (and possibly some sort of manipulation), buyers at this point have seen a 300% plus increase. After having my finger on the trigger to buy at these levels I am frustrated that I didn't proceed. Nice profit missed. It is incredible to think that Rockhopper was trading in the 35p range as little as a few weeks ago before the results of the Sealion appraisal well. So continued holders are nearly at the "ten bagger"stage. You don't see too many of these trading opportunities and I am sure that many have profited nicely. I am also sure that many lost a lot of money during the "flash crash" of Wednesday. It has been positive to see some good profits in these Falkland Islands shares, but what could have been if I'd had the nerve!?
Industrial and infrastructure stocks (e.g. Caterpillar CAT down 5.5% at $57.7) were hit particularly hard as a weakening euro means that revenues will be hit as the sales are translated back to dollars on currency conversion, plus any weakening of the European economies will hold back sales volumes. In addition, a weakening of commodity prices such as oil (which dropped over 4% to $71) and banking fears hit financials, energy and commodity stocks - Conoco Philipps (COP) was down 3.7% to $50, Barclays (BARC) was down 4.7% to £2.88, BHP Billioton (BHP) dropped 3.7% to £17.71.
The key reason for the decline was that U.S. non farm payrolls rose by only 431,000 last month, short of expectations for a rise of 515,000 jobs. Most of the rise was due to temporary census staff hiring (which created 411,000 jobs) and only 41,000 private sector jobs were created (against 218,000 in April). There were also downward revisions to payrolls in March and April, both 22,000 lower at 208,000 and 290,000 respectively. The unemployment rate dropped to 9.7% in May from 9.9% the previous month, in line with expectations.
On top of this the euro got a battering with a fall below the $1.20 level against the dollar being the lowest point for four years as fears that Hungary may suffer a Greek style debt crisis emerged. Hungary is in the European union but not part of the euro. However, after the concerns about Spain last week, worries about Hungary have given investors plenty of reasons to be pessimistic about the state of European finances and the health of its banks. A spokesman for Viktor Orban, the Hungarian Prime Minister, suggested that his country had only a slim chance of avoiding a Greek-style debt crisis. Peter Szijjarto, the Prime Minister’s spokesman, said that his Government was “ready to avoid the path that Greece took ... After realising what reality is, we will not hesitate to act.” The potential exposure to any Hungarian default by European markets is a stark reminder that the write-down's of the banks may not be over.
The Contrarian Investor UK portfolio has had limited trading over the last 2 weeks due to holiday. But positions were initiated in Coal of Africa (CZA) at 104p and BP at £4.19. The Coal of Africa position is retained but BP was sold on Thursday at £4.50. Short term trades were all put in play on Barclays (BARC), Man Group (MAN) and Prudential (PRU) which were all closed within a day or two as the market rebounded from the market falls late in May. The falls of last week have put some interesting opportunities on the table and I will take these on any further weakness during the early part of next week especially if the FTSE moves below 5000 again. Any fall in the U.S. S&P 500 below the key technical 1,050 level will be watched with interest.
It was disappointing not to be involved in the huge spike in the Falkland Islands oil shares yesterday after Rockhopper (RKH) issued a very positive technical update on its Sealion oil find in the North Falklands basin. RKH finished up 33% at £3.19, Desire Petroleum (DES) was up 22% at £1.00 and Falklands Oil and Gas (FOGL) was 10.5% at £2.06. Rockhopper upgraded the size of the find to 242 million barrels recoverable with further increases likely. After seeing the price drop to below a £1.00 on Wednesday on false rumours of a poor quality oil discovery (and possibly some sort of manipulation), buyers at this point have seen a 300% plus increase. After having my finger on the trigger to buy at these levels I am frustrated that I didn't proceed. Nice profit missed. It is incredible to think that Rockhopper was trading in the 35p range as little as a few weeks ago before the results of the Sealion appraisal well. So continued holders are nearly at the "ten bagger"stage. You don't see too many of these trading opportunities and I am sure that many have profited nicely. I am also sure that many lost a lot of money during the "flash crash" of Wednesday. It has been positive to see some good profits in these Falkland Islands shares, but what could have been if I'd had the nerve!?
