Trades and observations from a British contrarian stock investor

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Monday, June 7, 2010

BP taking the flak for Deepwater horizon disaster but what about others?

Since the Deepwater horizon disaster in the Gulf of Mexico BP's (BP.) share price has fallen from around £6.50 to today's £4.38, a drop of 33% wiping £40 billion of its market capitalisation. Although little is being said in the media of the other company's involved in the rig disaster, they too have seen their share prices hit hard. President Obama and the U.S. oil industry seem to be keen to maximise BP bashing whilst forgetting that U.S. companies like Anadarko have major interests in the well.

Anadarko Petroleum(APC) owns 25% of the well, Transocean Ltd. (RIG) operated the rig, Halliburton (HAL) provided the drilling equipment and Cameron International Corp. (CAM) provided the failed blow out preventer. Transocean has fallen from the high $80's to $50 since the disaster and Halliburton has fallen from $35 to $23.

Deepwater drillers not involved in the Deepwater horizon have also fallen heavily as the Obama administration announced a 6 month moratorium on new deepwater drilling. For example, one quality stock which stands out is Noble Corp (NE), falling from $43 to $27 and now trading on a forward price/earnings of around 5. At this price level it looks a tempting entry point as the block on drilling will be unlikely to be retained for any length of time given the pressure to find new sources of oil.

For the Contrarian Investor UK portfolio some of the oil names such as Conoco Phillips (COP) at $50 and Chevron at $71 looks tempting. The sector has taken a tremendous hit on the negativity surrounding the Gulf of Mexico issues and the effect of the oil price moving back into the low 70's. The oil price has moved down as speculators started to bet against the commodity when it moved into the 80's and the strengthening U.S. dollar also reduced it's value. I am looking at an entry point in some of these stocks if markets look weak again during the early part of this week.

Continued economic worries move down stocks

The after effects of last Friday's disappointing U.S.jobs numbers and fears about the health of Hungary and other European economies are moving stocks down this morning. The FTSE 100 is currently down 73 points to 5,051 and Dow futures are down a further 40 points to 9,897. Commodity stocks are baring the brunt of the pain with metal prices falling heavily - Kazakhmys (KAZ) is down 3.5% at £10.80 and Aquarius Platinum (AQP) is down 5% to £3.41.

BP (BP.) moved against the trend with a 5p rise to £4.38 as they reported some success in stemming the flow of oil from the damaged well in the Gulf of Mexico.