Trades and observations from a British contrarian stock investor

This blog is not intended to give financial advice. Before investing, do your own research and consult your financial adviser if appropriate. The accuracy of any information included is not guaranteed and may be subject to conjecture or interpretation by Contrarian Investor. Therefore visitors should validate all facts using alternative sources where possible.

Friday, April 30, 2010

Rodman and Renshaw put 300p target on GW Pharma

Broker Rodman and Renshaw have initiated coverage of GW Pharma (GWP) with a Market Outperform rating and a 300p 12 month target against the current share price of 122p.

They estimate GW to be profitable in 2012 and estimate the company to earn £0.40/share in 2014. Applying a 20X multiple and a 30% annual discount rate they derive a 12-month target price of £3/share (300p).

This moved the share price up 10% yesterday to close at 127p. Profit takers have moved in today and Contrarian Investor UK took the opportunity to top slice the holding with major news not due for a couple weeks yet and the key date being the interim results on May 18th. The shares are currently down 8.5p or 7% to 121p.

U.S. market waits for GDP data

The U.S. Dow Jones Industrial average moved up 122 points last night to finish at 11,167 as fears about Greek debt contagion eased and earnings continued to meet or exceed expectations particularly in the health sector. Bristol Myers (BMS) moved 4% higher after Q1 earnings rose 16% year on year.

Today the FTSE 100 is down around 20 points to 5,601 after a 5% fall in Barclays (BARC) to £3.42 despite a 47% increase in Q1 earnings. Profit before tax from continuing operations rose to £1.82bn from £1.24bn in the first three months of 2009. Investment banking arm, Barclays Capital, earnt £1.47bn, 62% more than Q1 2009. Impairment charges for bad debts dropped 35% to £1.51bn compared with £2.31bn a year ago and 19% less than the figure for the final quarter of 2009, largely due to a £563m reduction to £191m at BarCap. The shares fell because of disappointment at weaker profits in the retail division, with a 6% drop to £403m.



The U.S. GDP data is due at 1.30 pm GMT with an expectation of a 3.2% seasonally adjusted annual rate in the first three months 2010, down from 5.6% in the fourth quarter. This will dicate the direction of the UK and US markets this afternoon.