Trades and observations from a British contrarian stock investor

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Wednesday, June 9, 2010

Ithaca Energy ups reserves estimates

North sea oil explorer, Ithaca Energy (IAE) today reported a rise in total reserves following the successful appraisal of its Stella well which will come into production in 2012. At April 30, the company's total proved reserves stood at 20.9 million barrels of oil equivalent (mmboe), up 30.6 percent from Dec. 31, while total proved and probable reserves grew 12.8 percent to 41.96 mmboe. Proved reserves associated with the Stella field more than doubled to 10.2 mmboe, while proved plus probable reserves rose 61 percent to 14.4 mmboe.

After falling from close to £2 over the last month or so to hit 145p yesterday, the shares rose 7p or 5% to 152p today. Given the progress the company has made over the last 2 years with production now averaging 5100 bpd from the existing Jacky and Beatrice fields, the increase in reserves gives further impetus for strength in the price over coming months. This is a well managed, debt free and well financed company which with the right acquisitions could become a signficant North sea producer over the next 3 years.

BP slides again and triggers sale

Further falls in BP (BP.) were triggered today on fears that political pressure from the Obama administration would mean that dividend payments would be suspended or cut due to the impact of the Gulf of Mexico oil spill. The shares fell as low as 380p today, triggering a stop loss on a buy yesterday. This stock is certainly struggling to find a bottom having fallen from £6.50 since April and buyers seem in short supply as income funds divest their holdings. Contrarian Investor's attempt at bottom fishing on this one proved unsuccessful with a tight stop loss of 5% in place. However it seems conceivable that any further progress on plugging the Gulf of Mexico leak and further news on the dividend in July will finally put a floor on BP's valuation.

Markets back in positive territory on Bernanke comments

The FTSE 100 moved back up 57 points to close at 5,086 and the Dow Jones industrials are currently up 118 to move past the 10,000 barrier to 10,058. Commodity stocks were helped by reports from China that exports were 50% higher in May than a year ago. Comments by U.S. Federal reserve chairman Ben Bernanke also helped sentiment when he said last night that and today that any residual impact of Europe's debt trouble on U.S. economic growth would likely be modest so long as financial markets continue to heal and he pressed politucians to address the scale of their budget deficits both in the U.S. and globally. After the falls of the past few days, traders were saying that economically sensitive sectors like industrials, infrastructure and technology were over sold.