Prediction for FTSE 100 and DOW Industrials 2011

Contrarian Investor UK predicts the FTSE 100 will end 2011 at 6550 and the Dow Jones Industrials will hit 13,000.

But I believe its going to be a very volatile year, suiting a trading style rather than buy and hold. On the plus side, continued ultra low interest rates and quantitative easing will continue to drive the U.S. earnings and hence the market in 2011. It is unlikely that the Federal Reserve will begin to tighten monetary policy by raising interest rates too aggressively during 2011 despite signs of rising inflation notably in commodities. One day the U.S. government may be forced to take action against its ballooning budget deficit and rising national debt, but this isn't on the agenda in 2011 or even 2012 with the next presidential election due in 2012. Although the U.K. government has decided to take action to reduce spending and raise taxes, across the Atlantic this is an alien concept for now given this strategy would be likely to be politically unpopular with mainstream America.

The weak U.S. dollar has helped drive impressive growth in gold, silver, oil, and industrial metals as well as agricultural products e.g. cotton during 2010. It is unlikely that the dollar will reverse its trend in 2011 but continued high demand from Asia (notably China) may begin to wain.

There is likely to be notable sell-offs during 2011 precipitated by several possible scenarios:
1. worries about euro zone debt (particularly Portugal and Spain). The U.S. budget deficit and lack of action to tackle it.
2. Chinese inflation and an increase in interest rates
3. A stagnant or declining property market, plus rising defaults
4. Poor unemployment numbers in the euro zone and U.S.

Therefore I will not be over committing myself too early in 2011. I will keep cash on the sidelines to take advantage of falls in the more speculative stocks on my watch list rather than piling in during January when sentiment is too positive. I would rather buy on a sell-off then when the market is red-hot and universally bullish. These are:

1. Xcite Energy (XEL) - North Sea oil (already hold)
2. Bowleven (BLVN)  - Cameroon oil explorer
2. Nautical Petroleum (NPE) - North Sea oil
3. Coal of Africa (CZA) - South African coal miner
4. Angel Mining (ANGM) - Greenland Gold and Zinc (already hold)
5. Ithaca Energy (IAE) - North Sea oil

In addition to these AIM plays, I am also interested in Aviva, Shell, Reynolds, BAT, Imperial Tobacco as dividend stocks.

Portfolio review of the week July 4th 2010

On Friday the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished down 46 points , or 0.5%, to 9,686 its seventh day of falls, with a weekly drop of 4.5%. The S&P 500 moved down 5 points, or 0.5%, to end at 1,022, making it a 5% drop for the week. The Nasdaq Composite Index fell 10 points, or 0.5%, to 2,091, a drop of 5.9% for the week. The FTSE 100 gained 32 points or 0.7% to 4,838, but fell over 4% on the week.

The last time U.S. markets fell every day during a week was in October 2008 following the collapse of Lehman Brothers. On Friday, U.S. employment data disappointed with nonfarm payrolls falling by 125,000 in June, compared with 430,000 jobs created in May, as the number of temporary census workers dropped by 225,000. The unemployment rate fell to 9.5%, the lowest rate since July last year and down from 9.7% in May. U.S. factory orders declined in May, posting the largest drop in 14 months as transportation related orders declined heavily.Overall economic data for the week was below expectations which helped fuel the sell off. Overall investors are struggling to find reasons to buy stocks and technical investors are closely looking whether the S&P 500 will breach the key 1000 level during July.

Commodity stocks were weak for most of last week as worries about a U.S. and European double dip recession and a potentially slowing Chinese economy hit sentiment. On Friday, this negativity was partially reversed by the the Australian government’s decision to replace the resources ‘Super Tax’ with a less onerous alternative called the Mineral Resource Rent Tax (MRRT) which would apply to iron ore and coal from July 2012. Bank stocks were also moved down by renewed fears about sovereign debt in the euro zone.

The reversal in sentiment during the second quarter of 2010 has been significant with falls of around 10% in most indices wiping out gains made during the first quarter. The FTSE 100 has fallen more than 13% since the start of the year, with BP contributing a fall of 200 points in the index all by itself. Whereas investors thought the economic recovery was assured during the early part of 2010, now it all looks very different. With governments implementing tough austerity budgets to bring their deficits under control and the the effects of the Chinese stimulus package beginning to wane the rest of 2010 looks less rosy.

With all this negative sentiment, the Contrarian Investor UK portfolio has begun to find value again in some sectors. With ITV dropping below 50p, a purchase was made for the portfolio. Though positions were aggressively trimmed during Q1 to take advantage of the gains, holdings in Ithaca Energy (IAE) and Coal of Africa (CZA) have performed particularly poorly during the last 2 weeks. These remain good quality stocks were the energy and commodity sectors have been hit. Overall I am not taking an aggressive position on the long or short side but any further large falls will be seen as a buying opportunity. I would be surprised if the Dow fell below 9,000 since we are not in 2008 territory by any means.

Portfolio review of the week June 27th 2010

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 9 points, or 0.1%, to 10,144 on Friday, with a 2.94% fall for the week after the U.S. government revised 1st quarter economic growth estimates downwards led by weak consumer spending. The Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.27% to 2,233, but closed down 3.7% for the week. A notable faller on the Nasdaq was Research In Motion which dropped 11% to $52.2 after the company reported a 20% rise in first-quarter profit but disappointed on shipments of Blackberry's. The Standard & Poor's 500-stock index rose 0.29% to 1,076 but fell 3.7% on the week. Financial stocks moved up, helping to counter the move down in consumer related stocks, after the new financial regulation package was agreed and U.S. politicians in a form which was felt to be less onerous than previously feared.


The FTSE 100 was down 54 points to 5,046 on Friday, with a 4.7% or 253 point fall on the week. BP (BP.) continued its downward spiral closing at £3.04 on fears that potential storms in the Gulf of Mexico would hinder the efforts to stop the flow of oil from the leaking well. Commodity stocks had a particularly poor week as worries about a double dip resurfaced and metal prices softened. Generally sentiment took a tumble and the bears are firmly in control.


As I mentioned a few weeks ago, positions were trimmed back significantly as I had concerns about the market strength. For this reason, the portfolio is relatively limited at the current time. I am holding Coal of Africa (CZA) which has reversed back to 105p, my original purchase price and Ithaca Energy (IAE) which has had another poor week, finishing at 134p, down 10%. However, I am hopeful of a reversal for this company.

Portfolio review of the week June 19th 2010

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 16 points, or 0.16%, to 10,450 on Friday. The index climbed 2.4% on the week. Sentiment was helped by a report from Caterpillar (CAT) that it had achieved a 38% year-over-year increase in machinery sales in Asia for May giving signals that demand in the region was still robust despite concerns about the strength of the recovery. The Nasdaq Composite rose 3, or 0.1%, to 2,309 on Friday, making seven straight days of gains for the index. For the week the index was up 3%. The Standard & Poor's 500 index gained 1.5, or 0.13%, to 1,117 and climbed 2.37% this week. The FTSE 100 failed to achieve eight straight days of gains with a fall of 3 points to 5,251 on Friday, giving a rise of 1.6% for the week. The index was boosted by a partial recovery in BP (BP.) during the week after the company agreed to ring fence $20 billion in an escrow account to cover potential liabilities from the Gulf of Mexico spill and said that it would suspend its dividend giving reassurance that the company could cover the rising costs.

Overall sentiment improved considerably last week, with fears about the health of the European debt situation and continued Asian growth forgotten for now. However, I am sceptical about the strength of this rebound as these concerns have not disappeared by any means and the continued rise in the gold price to $1,258 an ounce gives an indication that investors continue to be concerned about the strength of the key currencies, notably the dollar and euro, with the impact that debt will have on future inflation prospects. Whereas investors were happy to park cash in dollars in the past, gold now seems to be the preferred safe haven. Whether the gold price continues to rise unabated is another matter, given its 35% increase in the last year.  With reservations about the stock markets at this time, I am continuing to take profits on these upward moves and buy on the dips. I await the next major panic selling event when I am bulk up my holdings. The timings of any lurch downwards is always the uncertainty in trading but I do not feel inclined to put all my cash to work right now. The U.S. second quarter earnings season in July will a good opportunity to increase my trading exposure.

The Contrarian Investor UK portfolio is a little light this week after some positions were sold. I wait for now for the right buy points.

GW Pharma (GWP) - After 9 years  of waiting, GW Pharma share holders were finally rewarded on Friday with the news that Sativex had been approved by the U.K. regulatory agency the MHRA. A press conference will be held next week jointly by Bayer and GW to formally announce the launch of the product. The shares rose 9.3% to 141p after a 5% increase on Thursday, making it a 19p or 15% rise for the week. Although I believe that Sativex should be a commercially successful product for the company, I do not foresee that there are significant short term catalysts to boost the share price much further than the 140-150p range. For example, final approval in Spain is expected to take several months more and European roll out will not occur until early 2011. Furthermore, there is a good possibility of profit taking moving the price down . For this reason, I decided to sell my final holding in GWP on Friday. Trading in and out of this stock has proved to be an excellent investment over the last few months, illustrating that for these smaller companies, short term trading can produce better results than buy and hold. 

Coal of Africa (CZA) - Following the £55 million fund raising earlier in the week at 110p, the shares finished the week at 113p, a rise of 8% on the week. I continue to hold for a rebound in this stock after topping up at 105p.

Ithaca Energy (IAE) - IAE finished broadly flat for the week at 148p despite a relatively upbeat AGM where it was confirmed that the company had $50 million of cash with no debt as well as a rising production outlook. Continuing to hold.

ITV (ITV) - After a nice move up to over 58p this week as sentiment recovered and revenues get a boost from the World cup I have taken profits in this stock. A move back to 51-52p would signal a buy back opportunity.

RockHopper (RKH) and Falkland Oil and Gas (FOGL) - After assessing the opportunity for the Toroa prospect which is currently beng drilled by FOGL, I have decided to divest my holding. After the good fortune on Rockhopper earlier in the year I have decided not to push my luck. The geological structure on the Toroa well is not linked to the Sea lion Rockhopper find. I continue to hold RKH.

Ithaca Energy ups reserves estimates

North sea oil explorer, Ithaca Energy (IAE) today reported a rise in total reserves following the successful appraisal of its Stella well which will come into production in 2012. At April 30, the company's total proved reserves stood at 20.9 million barrels of oil equivalent (mmboe), up 30.6 percent from Dec. 31, while total proved and probable reserves grew 12.8 percent to 41.96 mmboe. Proved reserves associated with the Stella field more than doubled to 10.2 mmboe, while proved plus probable reserves rose 61 percent to 14.4 mmboe.

After falling from close to £2 over the last month or so to hit 145p yesterday, the shares rose 7p or 5% to 152p today. Given the progress the company has made over the last 2 years with production now averaging 5100 bpd from the existing Jacky and Beatrice fields, the increase in reserves gives further impetus for strength in the price over coming months. This is a well managed, debt free and well financed company which with the right acquisitions could become a signficant North sea producer over the next 3 years.

German short selling of bonds ban worries market - send dollar to four year high against euro

The FTSE 100 is currently down 128 points to 5,177 after a fall of 115 points to 10,511 last night on the DOW industrials as traders reacted negatively to the news that German authorities are banning naked shorting of certain financial instruments in the debt market.

The euro fell sharply to hit a four year low against the U.S. dollar of 1.21 versus a 52 week high of 1.51. The rise in the dollar sent commodity stocks sharply lower this morning with BHP down 5% to £18.35 and financials are also under pressure with the likes of Barclays down over 6% to £2.86. BP continued its slide down to hit £5.26, a fall of 1.5%. After announcing its rights issue on Monday to acquire the assets of AIG's Asian unit AIA, Prudential shares are down over 4% this morning to £5.09 as analysts still remain unconvinced about the deal.

The heavy fall in Ithaca Energy (IAE) to £1.53 on no news (down 15p, 9% today) has made it a buying opportunity and this has been added to the portfolio this morning. The volatility is Ithaca is amplified by its dual listing on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) and the London Stock Exchange (LSE) which means that currency and trading in Canada have an impact on the U.K.price. WTI crude oil went below $70 yesterday (the lowest point this year). 

Portfolio review of the week May 16th 2010

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down up to 200 points on Friday but finished the day down 162 or 1.5% at 10,620. Despite Friday's weakness, on the week, the Dow Industrials rose 2.3% , the S&P 500 rose 2.2% to finish at 1,136 and the Nasdaq composite rose 3.6% to 2,347. The FTSE 100 rose 2.7% on the week, despite Friday's fall of 170 points to close at 5,263.

After the announcement of the 720 billion euro ($1 trillion) European Union/IMF bail out at the beginning of the week and a large relief rally after heavy falls at the end of the week before, the markets remained increasingly under pressure as the days passed.  Real concerns began to surface that the eurozone may not be able to get its debt under control within slowing economic activity to a snail's pace.

The Contrarian Investor UK portfolio took the opportunity to sell positions initiated during the market weakness the week before when the eurozone bail out euphoria hit on Monday. So Coal of Africa (CZA) and Ithaca Energy (IAE) were both sold at a profit. I am now again sitting largely on the sidelines with the majority of my equity holding in GW Pharma.

GW Pharma (GWP) - Despite the volatile week on the markets, GWP's share price continued to make good progress. The shares rose over 10p or 8.7% on the week to finish at 127p as the company is due to make its interim results announcement on Thursday and an update on the regulatory approval status of multiple sclerosis drug, Sativex, is eagerly awaited. I continue to hold this a core position since it is likely that Sativex will be launched by partner Bayer Schering in June barring any regulatory set backs but this seems unlikely given the update given by the company in March.

Portfolio review of the week May 8th 2010

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 140 points, 1.3%, to close the week at 10,380, despite the Labour Department report showing job growth in April at its fastest pace in four years in the U.S.. The index was was off 5.7% for the week, its worst performance since March 2009, losing 772 points in 4 days. The Nasdaq Composite Index was down 54 points or 2.3% to 2,266. The S&P 500 fell 17 to finish at 1,111 and showing a fall on the week of 6.4%. The FTSE 100 fell 138 points or 2.8% on Friday to close at 5,123. Over the week the FTSE 100 declined 7.8% or 430 points. Over the past month the index is down 11% or 639 points.

What has gone wrong? Investors continue to worry about Europe's debt crisis, particularly Spain and Portugal's situation after the Greek bail out. The Australian resources super tax didn't help as it hit commodity stocks and signs of a slow down in China made Asian investors nervous. Then albeit a sideline issue, the hung parliament situation in the U.K. has not helped sentiment in this country. My worries about the safety of the market when the DOW had moved over 11,000 and the FTSE 100 was trading in the 5,800+ range have been borne out. When stock markets move up week after week (the DOW gained 8 weeks in a row) a correction is inevitable, though the size and speed of the move down has surprised me.

Despite the heavy falls on both side of the Atlantic, the portfolio has done well this week but only because Falkland Island oil explorer, Rockhopper Exploration (RKH) came good. In fact its performance was exceptional. The other holdings have suffered in the sell off, but GW Pharma (GWP) has held on well considering what the indices have done. However, Contract for difference (CFD) bets on the FTSE 100 and DOW industrials were unsuccessful and fell through stop losses and unfortunately ate into the RKH gains.

Rockhopper Exploration (RKH) - After dropping into the mid 30p zone on Wednesday, the announcement on Thursday that the company had found a substantial oil reservoir on its Sea Lion prospect in the North Falklands Islands basin moved the share price to around 92p by close of play. Then the company issued a further update on the quality of the oil in the reservoir on Friday which confirmed the potential quality of the find. The shares shot up a further 51.5p to 145p. It was a week of trading in and out of RKH on Thursday and Friday with some nice profits made. I sold my final tranche at 125p on Friday. No doubt the shares have further to go as news flow on the analysis of the find continues to flow but I will take my profits for now. A drop yesterday to 84p was certainly a classic market maker shake to scare investors into selling and clearly several did. By the afternoon the shares were up 74%.

Not only it is good news for RKH shareholders but clearly good news for UK PLC. There is a talk now of an oil field as large as the North Sea.

GW pharma (GWP) - A good week for GWP as the shares held steady at 116p despite the broader market falls. Awaiting Sativex news which should be due any day now.

Ithaca Energy (IAE) - Despite some good news from the Stella North Sea field in relation to the sidetrack well the shares dropped 25p or 13% this week to finish at 168p. On Friday IAE fell 5% as oil fell to $78 per barrel.

Coal of Africa (CZA) - Coal of Africa shares fell nearly 17% this week to finish at 121p as the global price of coal fell and investors worried about the Australian resources super tax. On Friday CZA confirmed the new Australian tax would have no impact on earnings since they have no sites in Australia. The position initiated at 130p is under water but the prospects look very positive for the medium term especially with the London main market listing due Q2.

Ithaca Energy recovers after successful sidetrack well results

After falling as low as 165p today as the UK and Canadian markets fell heavily on concerns about the fall out from the Greece crisis, Ithaca Energy (IAE) recovered to finish flat at 176p on good news from the North Sea Stella field. 

The RNS delivered at 4.30 stated "The sidetrack well (30/6a-8Z) in the Stella field has confirmed a fully hydrocarbon-saturated reservoir interval in the Andrew sandstone. Successful sampling and pressure tests have also provided essential fluid composition information to appropriately size and plan the development of the Stella field. Well 30/6a-8Z was drilled as a geological sidetrack to further appraise the Stella field, in particular to determine the nature of the hydrocarbons at an intermediate depth in the reservoir up-structure from the initial vertical well (30/6a-8). Data acquired during the operation now permit accurate interpolations to be undertaken that define the compositional changes from gas and condensate to oil with increasing depth. No further drill stem testing was required that would enhance existing data already provided by appraisal wells drilled on the crest of the structure. All objectives have been fully met by the drilling programme and the Company can now integrate this latest information into engineering studies and define the most appropriate development strategy. The well intersected an 18 foot (true vertical thickness) section of Paleocene Andrew sandstone reservoir, a similar thickness to that seen in other wells on and near the Stella structure. A full suite of wireline logs have been acquired and indicate porosities up to 27% providing further confirmation of the lateral extent and quality of the reservoir interval. A full set of pressure data has been acquired to allow the Company to commence detailed analysis to determine the depth of the gas/oil contact in the Andrew reservoir, above the light oil encountered in the vertical well (30/6a-8). Data was also gathered over the Ekofisk chalk interval penetrated by the well. Ithaca has commissioned Sproule Associates Limited to provide an updated reserves report that will reflect the results of this drilling programme. The report is expected before the end of Q2 2010, at which time a further announcement will be made. The Stella appraisal programme is complete and it is predicted that the rig will be demobilized after 89 days on location (compared to a pre-drill estimate of 79 days). The final cost of the programme is anticipated to be within budget."

Ithaca Energy drop gives opportunity to buy back

After selling half of my Ithaca Energy (IAE) holding on Friday, an 8% drop today, following a similar fall on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) last night gives an opportunity to buy back. The negative impact of the Australian mining super tax on the commodity sector and a "take profits" story on thisismoney.co.uk helped to move the price down. As far as I'm aware none of Ithaca's assets are based in Australia so the "Henry tax" will not impact earnings.

However, some signifcant news on the sidetrack of the Stella field are expected any day. On 15th April, IAE said "The well will now be geologically sidetracked, as intended, to test the reservoir up-flank between this vertical bore and existing crestal wells to further investigate the quality of the reservoir and provide essential compositional information of the hydrocarbons at intermediate depths. The sidetrack will take approximately 15 days to penetrate the reservoir."

Portfolio review of the week May 1st 2010

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 158 points (1.4%) last night to finish at 11,009, as financials fell heavily following the downgrade of Goldman Sachs (GS) to sell. Goldman fell 15 dollars to finish at $145, a fall of over 9%. The Dow ended the week down 1.8%, the first weekly fall in 9 weeks and the worst week since January. The S&P 500 fell 2.5% to finish at 1,187, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 2% to finish at 2,461. The FTSE 100 closed at 5,553 yesterday, a fall of 65 points on the day and a decline of 170 points or 3% for the week as Barclays (BARC) disappointed due to a benign performance in its retail division.

U.S. GDP in the first quarter came in at 3.2%, meeting analyst expectations. The number was driven by an increase consumer spending  in the first quarter and the core inflation rate fell to its lowest number in 51 years.

The oil spill resulting from BP's well in the Gulf of Mexico appears to be worsening and the news from the White House that new domestic offshore oil drilling will be on hold until the investigation of the spill is complete drove down offshore drilling stocks. The operator of the rig Transocean (RIG) finished down 8% at $72, whilst sector peer Noble Corp (NE) dropped 4% to $39.5. 

This week was a good week for the portfolio despite the fall in the overall market. I continue to watch Coal of Africa (CZA) for an entry point which fell this week to below 150p following its quarterly update.

GW Pharma (GWP) - A broker initiation from Rodman and Renshaw with an outperform rating and 300p target sent the company's share's up 10% on Thursday which was quickly following by a 6% fall on Friday to finish at 118p. Some of the holding was sold on Friday morning and bought back later in the day as the price slipped further. News flow is expected over the next 2-3 weeks, particularly the UK/Spanish national application phase for Sativex and then we have the interim results to look forward to on May 18th.

Ithaca Energy (IAE) - Ithaca finished the week at 193p, around flat for the week. Union Securities has issued a broker report with a $4.00 near term target. The report expects the company to produce 5,100 barrels of oil per day in 2010, field development of Athena, Stella, Carna and Polly in the North Sea is expected to increase production 500% within four years. They also say that the Company trades at a large discount to its proven and probable asset value of $5.38.

RockHopper (RKH) - A poor week for Rockhopper with the stock dropping below 40p during the week before finishing at 42.5p, a 9% drop in the last 7 days. News if expected from the Sea Lion prospect in the next couple of weeks. A small holding in RKH, but volatile.

Portfolio review of the week April 24th 2010

The U.S. stock market climbed to a 17 month high on Friday after strong new-home sales and good earnings from American Express, marking the Dow's 8th straight week of gains. New home sales posted their largest year-over-year increase in nearly five years. The Dow Jones Industrial average rose 70 points to 11204, its highest close since Sept. 19, 2008. For the week, it climbed 1.7%. The Dow has now had its longest weekly winning streak since a run that ended in January 2004, more than 6 years ago.

The Nasdaq Composite rose 11 to 2530, its highest close since June 2008 led by rises in energy stocks. It rose 2% on the week, like the Dow showing its eighth-straight weekly gain. The S&P 500 climbed 9, to 1,217, its highest close since Sept. 19, 2008.

The FTSE 100 finished up 58, at 5,724 despite the disappointing GDP data as a stabilisation of the Greek debt situation was anticipated. The index was down 0.3% for the week.

GW Pharma (GWP) - No news from GW pharma this week as further information on the Sativex European licence is anticipated in May. It finished flat at 110p. Patience with this one.

Ithaca Energy (IAE) - Ithaca moved up 17p, 10% yesterday to finish the week at 189p on new that it had secured a $140 million funding facility to exploit the Stella North Sea field and acquire other assets in the area. The future looks very bright for this company. The stock moved 17% higher on the week with momentum continuing to look very positive.

Rockhopper (RKH) - Position initiated in the Falkland Islands driller as the stock slipped to 45p this week after last week's spudding of the Sea Lion prospect. 

Ithaca Energy announces $140 million debt financing

Good news from Ithaca Energy today with the announcement that they mandated Bank of Scotland as lead arranger on a $140 million senior secured borrowing debt facility. The money will be used to fund the development of the Stella field and the satellite discoveries Harrier and
Hurricane and/or fund future potential acquisitions of production properties in the North Sea. Furthermore the company confirmed that engineering scoping work has already started on the Stella development and satellite discoveries, Harrier and Hurricane based on the outcome of the Stella
appraisal well.

Iain McKendrick (Chief Executive Officer) commented:
"Further to our strong 2009 financial results and the very encouraging Stella appraisal well, the Company is well positioned to grow. This facility provides a major building block towards funding the capital expenditure required for the development of the Greater Stella Area but also the flexibility to finance a significant acquisition. The high level of support offered by the Bank of Scotland to Ithaca reinforces our view of the underlying strength of the Company cash flow and reserves".

The share price has responded positively with a rise of 5.7% to 177p despite a falling market. It means that the threat of a dilutive placing or rights issue has been avoided which is good news for Ithaca shareholders.  The company now has the prospect of a fully funded programme to exploit the Stella field and opportunities to pick up other assets which should drive earnings significantly upwards in 2011.

Portfolio review of the week April 17th 2010

Markets fell heavily yesterday after consistent gains earlier in the week, as Goldman Sachs (GS) posted a 13% drop to $160.7 on fraud charges brought by the Securities and Exchange Commission. The drop was the biggest one day fall in the stock's history. Technology stocks were also in the red with Google (GOOG) dropping $45 dollars or 7.5% to $550 on first quarter results.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished Friday down 125 points, or 1.1%, to 11,018. Despite the fall, the DOW showed its seventh week of gains. The S&P 500 Index fell 19.5 points, or 1.6%, to 1,192, below the key 1,200 technical level. The FTSE 100 index dropped 81 points, to 5,744.

The SEC, has accused Goldman Sachs and a London-based executive director, Fabrice Tourre, of failing to disclose information about a synthetic collateralized-debt obligation (CDO), related to subprime residential mortgage-backed securities. It also is said to have not disclosed the role that hedge fund Paulson & Co played in the portfolio-selection process and the fact that the fund was shorting the CDO. Investor's lost around $1 billion in the investment.

On the portfolio front it has been a relatively quiet week as I have trimmed long positions on the run up. Some shorts on the FTSE 100 and DOW placed yesterday morning could have been extraordinarily profitable following the Goldman news but were unfortunately not closed at the lows of the day. Its a waiting game for Contrarian Investor UK at the moment as I'm not rushing to commit extra funds into this market.

GW Pharma (GWP) - The portfolio's largest holding had a good end to the week with a 4.5% rise yesterday despite the market falls to finish at 114p. I am puzzled at what is driving this gain as the approval of the UK and Spanish national licences are not expected for Sativex for some weeks yet. May and June will be the months where the exciting news flow starts to come so its a question of watch and wait. Hopefully this will move up gradually over the next few weeks as the regulatory update in March hugely de-risked this share.

Nighthawk Energy (HAWK) - A short term trade was placed this week on news of a drilling update and director buys. Position closed at 29p.

Ithaca Energy (IAE ) - Following news from the appraisal well on the Stella field in the North Sea a position was initiated but not in the Contrarian Investor core portfolio as this will be a longer term story.

Ithaca Energy tucked away into SIPP for medium term

Yesterday's news on the early appraisal of the North Sea Stella field indicating that its reserves are much higher than anticipated was good news for Ithaca Energy (IAE). Last week it announced its first profit of $7.9 million on revenues of $111 million, after a loss of $30.4 million (£19.7 million) in 2009. The results were driven by a 50% share of 7,083 barrels of oil per day production from the Beatrice and Jacky fields in the North Sea. Earnings estimates for 2010 are $0.36 per share and $58.7 million. At the current share price of £1.62 ($2.44) this puts Ithaca on a forward p/e of 6.8.

The company has no debt and $30 million of cash. It plans to develop its Athena field and acquire other North Sea assets in what it considers to be a buyer’s market for undeveloped discoveries. The Stella field will come on stream in 2012 with reserves up to 20 million barrels and it is possible that further upgrades of the field's reservoir will be forthcoming.

Although I do not anticipate too much further share price appreciation in the short term after the 10% rise yesterday, I have bought Ithaca in my SIPP (Self Invested personal pension) since the next couple of years should see earnings move up sharply. Though Ithaca can be volatile as it is traded on both the Toronto Stock Exchange and AIM in the U.K. from a fundamentals and momentum point of view this company ticks the boxes.

Ithaca Energy issues positive statement from Stella North Sea field

Ithaca Energy (IAE) announced today that drilling in their North Sea field Stella had found more oil than expected and confirming its viability meaning the company's reserves could be increased by up to 25%.
Ithaca's chief exploration officer Nick Muir said "The field is clearly even more significant than we thought and the results of this well and the test have exceeded all our expectations,"

The company said that it now knows the reservoir has a total hydrocarbon column of more than 820 feet, confirming oil more than 500 feet lower than that found in previous wells, and establishing the reservoir as 'fill to spill', meaning connected hydrocarbons are present throughout.

Following the news it looks like Ithaca's prospects look increasingly positive, though drilling will not start until 2012. Despite the despite 10% increase today to 162p the shares still look good value.

Ithaca Energy position closed after today's 12% rise

After a near 17% rise in two days, the position in Ithaca Energy was closed late this afternoon. A case of day trading but "A profits, not a profit until you've banked it"!

New position in Ithaca Energy initiated on strong production outlook

Ithaca Energy Inc.(IAE) listed on the UK AIM and Canadian TSX markets, is an independent oil & gas company with exploration, development and production assets in the UK sector of the North Sea. On February 19th, the company announced that the Galaxy II heavy duty jack-up rig had spudded and commenced drilling at the Stella appraisal well location in block 30/6. Results from this well should be available by June.

Major additions to reserves were reported at the end of 2009 though additional geological and geophysical study work conducted during the second half of 2009 in the Central North Sea:

i) The evaluation of Stella (Ekofisk) and Harrier discoveries has added significant additional 2P reserves.

ii) Block 29/10b was awarded to Ithaca (now 100% equity interest) in the 25th UKCS Licensing Round. The block contains the Hurricane discovery which has been attributed Probable reserves.

iii) 2P Gross reserves for Stella (Andrew) have not changed pending the appraisal well result. Combined 2P reserves for the GSA now amount to 25.52 mmboe representing ~70% of the total 2P reserves for the Company. 

Other reserve changes have been made throughout the portfolio and are summarised below:

i) In March 2009 the Company announced the successful drilling of the Carna prospect and Proved reserves for this discovery have been ascribed to Ithaca.

ii) The Jacky field was brought on line in April 2009 and has performed well above expectation. Previous assessed Proved reserves (December 31 2008 adjusted for Dyas transaction) for Jacky before first production were 0.68 mmboe net. Ithaca net production for 2009 was 0.97 mmboe; the latest assessment confirms 1.37 mmboe of remaining Proved reserves net to Ithaca.

iii) Ithaca acquired the Beatrice field in November 2008 and has achieved steady daily production increases over the last 12 months. Further work designed to access additional reserves is planned for 2010 and this has been taken into account by Sproule. Previous assessed Proved reserves (December 31 2008 adjusted for Dyas transaction) for Beatrice were 0.84 mmboe net. 

iv) production for 2009 was 0.33 mmboe; the latest assessment confirms 1.65 mmboe of remaining Proved reserves net to Ithaca.

Wellington West Capital Markets, has said that Ithaca can be expected to generate $100-million in cash flow during 2010 from the North sea and is capable of increasing net production to 16,000 barrels of oil a day by 2013 from 4,700 barrels this year. The company has the benefit of an experienced management team who have considerable expertise in the North sea, and a strong balance sheet being debt free.

Ithaca is currently trading at 116-120p up 7% for the day, with a 52 week range of 24p-117p. Brokers are expecting pre-tax profits of £28 million this year, putting the company on a p/e of 8 for 2010. Position initiated at 114p on Monday.