Trades and observations from a British contrarian stock investor

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Wednesday, May 19, 2010

Rockhopper sells off hard as market uncertainty hits small caps

Rockhopper exploration (RKH) dropped 18% today to 173p despite news from the company that it will know in 10-15 days how big its discovery on the Sea Lion prospect will be after initial results indicated a substantial reserve. The well itself is being suspended for future testing. The company is now valued at only £300 million, £70 million more than fellow Falkland Islands oil explorer Desire Petroleum (DES) which seems unwarranted given RKH has struck oil and DES has to date not.

The market panic created by German Chancellor Merkel's comments about the euro is exactly the sort of negativity that Contrarian Investor UK likes and several good opportunities have been thrown up in the panic. After buying some Rockhopper today on the sell off, I will be looking to add to the position on any further weakness given the expected news in just over a week. Given the news released to date from sea lion and the heavy institutional buying since the oil discovery (for example by relatively conservative Ignis which owns 2.7 million shares and 4 million contracts for difference) Rockhopper seems very good value at these levels, particularly in comparison with the other Falkland Island drillers. The greatest profits are to be made when others are hitting the sell button!

It's GW Pharma (GWP) interims time tomorrow, which I await with great expectation. The shares finished up 1p today at 130p.

German short selling of bonds ban worries market - send dollar to four year high against euro

The FTSE 100 is currently down 128 points to 5,177 after a fall of 115 points to 10,511 last night on the DOW industrials as traders reacted negatively to the news that German authorities are banning naked shorting of certain financial instruments in the debt market.

The euro fell sharply to hit a four year low against the U.S. dollar of 1.21 versus a 52 week high of 1.51. The rise in the dollar sent commodity stocks sharply lower this morning with BHP down 5% to £18.35 and financials are also under pressure with the likes of Barclays down over 6% to £2.86. BP continued its slide down to hit £5.26, a fall of 1.5%. After announcing its rights issue on Monday to acquire the assets of AIG's Asian unit AIA, Prudential shares are down over 4% this morning to £5.09 as analysts still remain unconvinced about the deal.

The heavy fall in Ithaca Energy (IAE) to £1.53 on no news (down 15p, 9% today) has made it a buying opportunity and this has been added to the portfolio this morning. The volatility is Ithaca is amplified by its dual listing on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) and the London Stock Exchange (LSE) which means that currency and trading in Canada have an impact on the U.K.price. WTI crude oil went below $70 yesterday (the lowest point this year).