Trades and observations from a British contrarian stock investor

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Thursday, January 27, 2011

Portfolio has good day on little news but plenty of rumours

The majority of the Contrarian Investor UK portfolio was well up today. The strongest performer was Xcite Energy with a 3.5% gain, but Rockhopper (+2.7%) and Bowleven (+2.8% after being as high as 5% up in the morning) all had a good day after the falls of earlier in the week. Speculation was the order of the day - Xcite takeover rumours surfaced again (seems unlikely until the field reserves have been confirmed by the Competent Persons Report), with Bowleven it was that the background seller was gone (JP Morgan) after an RNS confirmed a sale of shares by JPM over the last 6 weeks.

For Sirius Minerals it was good to see a recovery in the share price in the afternoon to move from down 5% to close up 5%. Seemed to be purely on sentiment changing that North Dakota was at its end game.

Xcite seemed exceptionally strong at the close and I have moved some funds from Bowleven to Xcite since this seems to be the most likely to move strongly upward in coming days. Interesting to note that there were two 41,000 share buys during the day, but only at a small premium to the prevailing price.

It should also be an interesting day tomorrow and Monday/Tuesday for Rockhopper given their latest well is close to reaching a potential hydrocarbon depth. It rose as much as +15p today before settling +9.5p. Again it was down first thing.

Nice investing day for a change. You would have thought the stock market ws doomed after the last week on many of the holdings!

FT Alphaville Xcite bid rumour

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/01/27/471731/markets-live/

Xcite Energy Ltd (XEL:LSE): Last: 364.27, up 10.77 (+3.05%), High: 366.13, Low: 356.50, Volume: 485.62k
NH
bid rumours
NH
and also talk the test results are much better than expected

Probably complete garbage and with only 715,000 shares traded the market seems to agree.

Bowleven out of doldrums too

Sense has returned at last to Bowleven (BLVN), up 5% with good volume after the days of big falls from the 400p zone. An RNS just before 9 confirmed the main reason for this fall. Major shareholder, JP Morgan, have been selling shares over the last 6 weeks. They now own just below 10% of the company, down 1% of so. Will be interesting to see if this is it or whether their stake continues to go down. The market seems to think the seller is out of the anyway.

I guess that Heritage Oil's gas, rather than oil find, in Iraq and subsequent 30% drop also knocked confidence in the small cap oil/gas sector. We know that Bowleven has oil and plenty of it. This is no Heritage.

Xcite looking good on Level 2

Steady buying of Xcite Energy this morning, just ticked up to +7p, despite the wide spread with good depth on the buy side and offer slowing rising. Seems the Market Makers don't know which way this is going - up? Volume rubbish so far.

Xcite's Lucas-Clements talking at Offshore summit on 1st February

This would be an interesting presentation to see Charles Lucas-Clements in action.

http://www.offshore-summit.com/programme.asp


Offshore Production Technology Summit 2011
31st January - 1st February 2011
Lancaster London Hotel, London, UK
Maximising growth through innovation

Case Study: Xcite Energy - Pre-production planning and development of an offshore heavy oil field
Understanding the unique nature of the venture
Assessing the technologies involved:
Horizontal well technology
Separation technology
Charles Lucas-Clements, Director of Strategy and Business Development, Xcite Energy ResourcesUnited Kingdom