Trades and observations from a British contrarian stock investor

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Monday, December 28, 2009

Solid prices for Coal in 2010 boost investment case for Coal of Africa (CZA)



Today's Telegraph newspaper has the following quote, "Analysts from JP Morgan reckon that thermal coal, used in power stations, will rise from $70 to $85 per tonne next year, based on rebounding demand from China and India. While global inventories have been unusually high in the downturn, the bank believes stocks may decline from 40m tonnes this year to 22.7m in 2010.

"Supply will be tight in the next two years," said Stevanus Juanda, a mining analyst. "In the second half of 2009, we have observed sizeable imports of coal by China, due to the closure of mines in the Shanxi region and rise in electricity generation."

Experts are also predicting a shortage in coking coal used to make steel over the next year, driven up 12-fold by demand from China.

Macquarie, JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley estimate that prices may jump by between 23pc and 38pc in 2010, as global demand rebounds." *


As production ramps up at Coal of Africa (CZA),this should translate to solid earnings in 2010.



http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/6896140/Old-King-Coal-will-stay-on-the-commodities-throne-for-years.html

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