Trades and observations from a British contrarian stock investor

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Monday, March 29, 2010

Couldn't resist Rockhopper at these levels

With the huge fall out from the Desire Petroleum (DES) Liz well on all the Falkland Island drillers, the next prospect on Ocean Guardian drilling schedule looks interesting. During the previous drilling campaign by Shell in the 1998, oil was found on the Rockhopper prospect that the Ocean Guardian will start to drill early in April. After my holdings were sold automatically this morning falling through guaranteed stops, I have perhaps foolishly decided to reinvest back in Rockhopper (RKH) with a smaller position in Falklands Oil and Gas (FOGL). Having fallen from around 85p to its current 41.5p since January after the current 12p decline, the fall seems to have been overdone as the geological structure on Rockhopper's prospects are different to Desire's and I believe largely unrelated (not being a geologist). RKH's market capitalisation is only £76 million, despite a £50 million placing at the end of 2009, versus Desire's £167 million (it was over £300 million prior to today's announcement). The news flow in coming weeks will be largely from Rockhopper so I can see many Desire investors jumping ship to RKH to perhaps recoup some of the heavy losses. Speculative, but lets see what happens!

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