Trades and observations from a British contrarian stock investor

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Saturday, March 20, 2010

Portfolio review of the week March 20th 2010

After 8 days of gains in the U.S. and a strong move upwards in the U.K., it was not surprising that the S&P 500 finally moved down. I remain cautious on the market at this level and am using the strength as an opportunity to sell down some positions. My ISA is now 60% in cash, after unit trust purchases bought in November has shown near 20% gains.

GW pharma (GWP) - An exceptional week for GWP as the company announced that all aspects of safety, quality and efficacy had been resolved for the UK/Spanish licence applications for multiple sclerosis drug, Sativex. The stock moved up from around 100p to finish the week at 121p. Though tempting to take profits, there is significant news flow yet to come from the company. A milestone payment from Bayer Schering of £10 million will be triggered on the UK licence approval in May. A further milestone payment of £2.5 million will be due from Almirall (GW's European partner) on Spanish approval, due Q3 (£8 million was paid in 2009). Results from the clinical study in cancer pain have been confirmed for Spring 2010. It is likely that global distribution deals for Asia and Latam will be announced at the interims in May.

The regulatory announcement this week is a ground breaking event for GW pharma. Sativex approval in Europe is  now assured. Given the company was founded in 1998 to develop Sativex, the end of a 12 year road is now in sight. Although reimbursement issues are yet to be resolved, the strength of the commercialisation partners (Bayer Schering and Almirall), will no doubt ensure that any issues are resolved.

Falkland Island Oil drillers (Desire Petroleum DES, Falkland Oil and Gas FOGL, Borders and Southern BOR) - After double digit increases in the Falkland Island oil explorers on Monday, the shares fell away during the rest of the week. News from Desire Petroleum's Liz field where the Ocean Guardian rig is drilling is expected any day. Most of my positions are held in controlled risk CFDs (contracts for difference) which limits downside on any bad news. Positive news from Liz, will drive these shares, particularly Desire petroleum, up at least 30% and possibly a lot more. Though risky, the risk/reward is enticing with the downside protected.

ITV (ITV) - ITV continued to tread water and finished the week at 54p. The only news was the size of Adam Crozier's pay and performance package which is geared to a recovery in the share price.

ARM Holdings (ARM) - A short was initiated this week and this finished on a small profit for the week. It was encouraging that despite large gains in the semiconductor stocks during the week, ARM did not participate in this rally. The rationale for the short in ARM and SSL were explained on a post during the week.

SSL International (SSL) -  A short initiated at 780p was down a couple of percent, with the stock closing at 792p yesterday.

Ithaca Energy (IAE) -  The North sea focused oil explorer moved up from 108p on Monday to finish the week at 134.5p, a gain of 24%. A position initiated on Tuesday was unfortunately closed too early at 124p and illustrates the caution needed when selling stocks into a positive momentum move especially when the stock is dual listed. Moves on the Canadian TSX, where commodity stocks powered up this week, drove the share price appreciation on this side of the Atlantic.

Micron Technology (MU) - Position closed at $10.14. The stock finished at $9.90 last night. Micron has rebounded strongly from around $8 in the last month and therefore an opportunity was taken to sell off on the rise.

Intel (INTC) -  An overnight position was taken on Intel which generated a 3% gain. No longer holding.

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