Portfolio review of the week March 9th 2010

The portfolio review is a little late due to a holiday. As I noted on my previous post, Contrarian Investor UK is searching for suitable short term trading opportunities and there appear to be few obvious long only options. The volatility of the market makes me reluctant to commit to large shorts so the portfolio is on a holding pattern waiting for results from the Falkland Islands and news from GW pharma. New ideas are being assessed.

GW Pharma (GWP) - The portfolio's largest holding had a good week, with a solid move from around the 90p mark to £1.00. However, a minimum 35% upside is expected if the European approval for cannabis spray, Sativex, is announced this month. In addition to this, clinical trial results from the 336 patient phase II/III study funded by partner Otsuka are due early this year. The patients in the study have advanced cancer for which there is no curative therapy and are experiencing little relief from pain using conventional opiods. The primary goal of the study is response rate after 5 weeks. Further studies are planned to start in mid-2010 to enable the U.S. FDA registration of Sativex in 2011 and an additional European indication for cancer pain, also in 2011.

Falkland Oil drillers (Desire Petroleum DES, Falkland Oil and Gas FOGL, Borders and Southern BOR) - The potential intervention of U.S. Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton, helped to dampen sentiment in the Falkland Island Oil drillers. Following a meeting with the Argentinian President, Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, Clinton said she encouraged the U.K. and Argentine governments to negotiate a settlement in relation to the sovereignty of the Falkland Islands. DES, FOGL and BOR are all down 20%-30% from the point when Desire's Ocean Guardian Rig began drilling in the North Falklands basin. However, news from the Ocean Guardian should be forthcoming in the next 1-2 weeks.

ITV (ITV) - ITV's 2009 results were initially positively received by the markets with a rise on the announcement to 57p. However, the shares have now drifted back to 52p with the markets expecting the return to health of the company to take some time under Norman/Crozier's leadership. ITV seem to be stuck in a trading range in the 50's and further positive news is needed to propel them through the 60p mark.

Amgen (AMGN) - The final tranche of Amgen stock was sold today at $57.6, giving a 5% gain despite the propects for Osteoporosis drug, Prolia. I am hoping for a buyback situation around $55 given the trading range of $55-58.

Micron Technology (MU) - Micron is stubbornly stuck below the $10 mark and currently trades at $9.5 despite the positive outllook for memory chips.