Trades and observations from a British contrarian stock investor

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Thursday, March 25, 2010

U.S. market turns down on Euro fears

Although the FTSE 100 finished in marginally positive territory after the budget, the DOW Jones Industrials dropped 53 points to finish at 10, 836 as the Euro continued to fall heavily against the dollar.

The Euro was hurt by Fitch, the credit rating agency, which downgraded Portugal’s credit rating to AA- from AA, citing “significant budgetary underperformance in 2009” and “structural weaknesses” in its economy. German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, continues to resist pressure to offer economic aid to Greece as unsurprisngly a bail out would be politically unpopular. Germany is holding out against any deal until the Greek governnment has exhausted its options to borrow on the bond markets, or from the IMF (International Monetary Fund) and allow it to roll over its debt. The Eurozone continues to look a mess as there is no mechanism to devalue which would have been Greece's preferred option under the Drachma.


It was interesting to watch Jim Cramer's Mad Money TV show (CNBC) the night before last where he said the market was going much higher and the bears had been turned into cuddly koala bears.  Yet with all thus exuberance many risks exist for the global economy.  The first quarter earnings season in the U.S. is due to kick off in 3 weeks time and earnings will probably do well as firms continue to drive bottom line profits through cost cutting. However,  top line sales growth will be needed to continue the momentum in the second half of 2010. 

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