Trades and observations from a British contrarian stock investor

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Saturday, April 3, 2010

Templeton's Mark Mobius talks of emerging markets volatility ahead

In 2009, most emerging markets funds doubled in value from the March lows. In 2010,  returns have been closer to developed markets. The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF is only up 1.9% year-to-date versus the FTSE 100's 4%, but has gained 78% on a 12 month basis.  The actively managed and top performing Templeton Emerging Markets investment trust (TEM) run my Mark Mobius is up 7.4% year to date  (98% on a 12 month view), three and half times the exchange traded fund, partly because the EFT is a dollar denominated fund and the dollar has signficantly strengthened against the pound in recent months . In this weekend's Barrons, Mobius says "If you're coming in now, make sure you dollar-cost average, and be ready for corrections," but Mobius expects emerging markets to post gains "in the teens or double digits in 2010, even with corrections along the way."

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