Trades and observations from a British contrarian stock investor

This blog is not intended to give financial advice. Before investing, do your own research and consult your financial adviser if appropriate. The accuracy of any information included is not guaranteed and may be subject to conjecture or interpretation by Contrarian Investor. Therefore visitors should validate all facts using alternative sources where possible.

Friday, January 14, 2011

Portfolio review of the week - 14th January 2011

An action packed week by any measure for the Contrarian Investor UK portfolio, particularly on my largest holding Xcite Energy (XEL). A great deal of volatility to contend with and today some good entry points for some of the stocks in my watch list.

Xcite Energy (XEL) - I have written about the mini "flash crash" on a post yesterday so won't revisit this. Today the company issued an RNS stating that it had entered into an extension to the binding letter of intent (LOI) with British American Offshore Limited for the N-Class "Rowan Norway" jack-up rig.The LOI has been extended by mutual consent to 31st January 2011 with no amendment to the existing termination fee payable by XER in the event it does not enter into a definitive agreement by this date. Of course this was greeted with many rumours on the bulletin boards why the extension was on the cards, particularly that a takeover was imminent because of the 2 week extension (the original deadline was the 15th) but my take is that the legal paperwork is just taking a while to finalise or perhaps they are negotiating an earlier delivery of a another rig which is built (Rowan Stavanger rig is available immediately after contractee reneged) . I'd love it if Statoil was about to pounce, but this is probably unlikely until the resources are confirmed as bankable reserves in February/March.

Angel Mining (ANGM) - A week where the share price retraced heavily from the 7p area and was down nearly 10% to 5.5p today before bouncing back in the late afternoon to 5.88p. The fall was a good opportunity to top up the holding with the first shipment of dorĂ© for refining is expected to take place in January 2011 from the Nalunaq gold mine in Greenland. I am sure that this was Market Maker manipulation today to stock up on shares before the RNS due any day for the first shipment of gold. Spread bet opened (Sep 2011) at 5.841p. Though volatile, Angel is still a great opportunity for 2011.

Bowleven (BLVN) - The Cameroon explorer made relatively little share price progress this week despite some positive news from its continued drilling in the Sapele 1 well. Today Barcap named Bowleven as its top pick for this year in the oil exploration sector with a £5 target (it is currently 391p, up 5p on the day). Lots of news is expected from the company in the coming weeks as it continues to drill Sapele 1. The size of the resources already identified is significant. Estimates of oil in place have increased from 40 -290 million barrels to 65 to 430 million barrels in the Deep Omicron, mean 217 million barrels.

Sirius Minerals (SXX) - Potash explorer Sirius has been a share that I have traded in and out of several times in 2010. Sirius presently holds in excess of 7,425 net mineral acres of exploration leases in the Williston Basin in North Dakota covering known potash and salt deposits. It also owns properties in Western Australia and Queensland.The share price has been strong this week with a rise to around 17p, as rumours begin to grow about the potential size of the prize at it exploration site in North Dakota. On November 9th 2010, Sirius announced that drilling has commenced on its North Dakota property. An exploratory hole is being drilled to a total depth of approximately 2,740meters. Sirius had anticipated that the drilling, core logging and analysis would take approximately two months to complete ie. around mid January. An RNS on the 24th December confirmed that samples would be logged in detail, photographed and selectively prepared for geochemical analysis. Final analysis will then be completed by the Saskatchewan Research Council by mid February.

I took the opportunity today to start building a position with so much news just round the corner despite the rise from the 12p to 16p region in the last week. If Dakota comes in, the share price will be many multiples higher.

Overall a week where the portfolio showed little change in its value. Prior to the drop in Xcite today, I moved more of my positions from contracts for difference (CFD's) to spread bets since I believe that the talk of a doubling or tripling of the share price talked by Xcite at Oilbarrel yesterday is not pie in the sky. This could mean a very hefty tax bill in standard shares or CFD's, so a bit of planning needed for both 2010/11 and 2011/12 tax years. Next week should be exciting with news due from Bowleven and Angel.

No comments:

Post a Comment