Trades and observations from a British contrarian stock investor

This blog is not intended to give financial advice. Before investing, do your own research and consult your financial adviser if appropriate. The accuracy of any information included is not guaranteed and may be subject to conjecture or interpretation by Contrarian Investor. Therefore visitors should validate all facts using alternative sources where possible.

Tuesday, January 25, 2011

Rough day today on bad U.K. GDP news

Its been a big red day across the board for the portfolio for the second day. The main reason was the unexpected news that the U.K.’s GDP (Gross Domestic Product) shrank in the final quarter of 2010 by 0.5%, compared with growth expectations of at least 0.2%. This was caused by weak services and construction, though manufacturing continued to be strong.

So we have a heady cocktail of rising inflation (4.8% RPI) and weakening growth which makes life very interesting for the Bank Of England (BOE). If they increase interest rates above 0.5% they risk curtailing growth even more especially with the raft of austerity measures and tax increases (e.g. VAT recently increased to 20%). BOE Governor, Mervyn King, said tonight that families faced the biggest squeeze on household income for 90 years. The government blamed the bad weather in December for the fall in economic output. The news probably puts the brakes on interest rate increases for the foreseeable future which should be good news for the U.K. stock market in 2011, unless a double dip recession does rear it's ugly head ahead. This will happen if quarter one GDP falls (a recession is technically two quarters of economic contraction).

On a stock specific note, Sirius Minerals (SXX) continued its downward trajectory, falling below 16p during the morning but it has now stabilised at 16.5p (down 3.5%). It is unclear for the reason for the big fall this morning.It may have been shorters or just an excess of sellers. I’m sure market makers also had a role to play to “panic the weak”.

Bowleven (BLVN) is suffering with a 5% fall to 352p. As for the reason for this big drop, no idea! Perhaps it’s a leak from Cameroon that the extended drilling has come to nothing, but nothing to confirm either way. Looking at level 2, certainly a big seller in the background and not enough buyers to mop up the excess supply. Not a market maker tree shake since not a dramatic fall, a gradual tick down as selling pressure built through the day.

Imagination Tech (IMG) has like Bowleven had a bad day, but has now recovered to 11p down 3.2% despite a story on Apple insider (http://www.appleinsider.com/articles/11/01/24/production_of_apples_ipad_2_to_begin_in_february_iphone_5_in_may_report.html) that production for IPAD 2 will start in February for an April launch
with Iphone 5 due in June both with the persistant rumour that these devices both will have IMG chips.

At least Xcite (XEL) has held nicely firm despite the overall market weakness, currently down 0.5p to 363-367p.

No comments:

Post a Comment