Trades and observations from a British contrarian stock investor

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Thursday, February 24, 2011

Gaddafi loses control outside Tripoli and oil price turns down

Gaddafi's hold on power in Libya is slipping with reports that his authority is now confined to parts of Tripoli.Towns to the west of the capital have fallen and all of the east is firmly in opposition hands.

Gaddafi blamed the revolt on al-Qaida leader Osama bin Laden, and said the protesters were fuelled by hallucinogenic drugs.

Saudi Arabia is in discussions to increase its oil output to offset any loss of production in Libya. Recently U.S. WTI crude is down 0.5% to $97 a barrel (Brent crude is now flat on the day at $111, after spiking earlier to $120 a barrel). Traders were spooked when talk of a Face Book campaign to hold a day of action in Saudi Arabia took hold, but so far only a few hundred people have registered.

Algeria has officially lifted its 19-year-old state of emergency, according to the national Algerian Press Service. The action lifts restrictions on freedom of speech and assembly imposed to combat an Islamist insurgency. Worries that Algeria and Tunisia could join the turmoil was of particular concern given the gas pipelines which serve Europe cross these countries.

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