Trades and observations from a British contrarian stock investor

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Saturday, February 12, 2011

Portfolio review of the week - 12th February 2011

The FTSE 100 finished up 43 points at 6,063, a rise of 1% for the week on news that Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak had stepped down. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 44 points, or 0.4%, to 12,273, a rise of 1.5% on the week. It was the Dow's highest close since June 2008. WTI Oil futures dropped a dollar yesterday to $85, on the news from Egypt.

The Contrarian Investor UK Portfolio had a mixed week, with gains from Xcite Energy (XEL) tempered by a large fall in Rockhopper (RKH), though XEL represents a much larger part of the portfolio. The unexpectedly large drop in RKH, meant that my margin requirements were looking a little stretched and therefore I reluctantly had to close a couple of Xcite spread bets late on Friday, albeit at a profit, and my portfolio still has a lot of Xcite with news just around the corner.

Xcite Energy(XEL) -  Xcite finished down 3p on Friday, but a gain of 25p on Wednesday meant that it finished the week at £3.82, a rise of 20p on the week. The rig signing deadline with British American Offshore for the Rowan Norway rig passed yesterday (this was the second extension) with no news. Given the company normally issue an RNS the day after a signing deadline, it is pretty much certain an RNS will be forthcoming on Monday. Wednesday's rise was partly related to a FT.com story that there was "vague talk of a takeover" (see previous post http://contrarianinvestoruk.blogspot.com/2011/02/xcite-energy-ftcom-quotes-vague-bid.html). As I stated earlier it was frustrating to have to close some spread bets on Friday, but there is still plenty there to benefit from upside from a good RNS. The key document, the CPR reserves report is expected anytime in the next month, and you never know, it might be sooner than we were all led to believe.

Rockhopper (RKH) - Unfortunately buys on Thursday and Friday were poorly timed with a subsequent 17% fall on Friday afternoon, but my previous post (http://contrarianinvestoruk.blogspot.com/2011/02/rockhopper-1410-3-disappoints-market.html) illustrates why I wasn't panicked into selling like many others on the drop.

ARM Holdings (ARM) - A short on chip designer, ARM holdings, was closed for a profit after the shares hit all time highs this week.

Bowleven (BLVN) - An update from the Sapele 1 well in Cameroon didn't do much to help the shares this week. They finished down 2.5% at £3.29. Several failures in the AIM oil sector this week (Rockhopper, Nautical, Encore) plus perhaps the changes at CMC holdings seems to have contributed to a lot of volatility. Bowleven remains a core holding for medium term gains particularly with a second rig being mobilised in February to accelerate appraisals.

Weatherly International (WTI) - The RNS from 8th February was good news. "mining activities have resumed at both the Otjihase and Matchless mines with ore being blasted and stockpiled awaiting commissioning of the concentrator. The commissioning of the concentrator is progressing well and the plant will resume normal operation in accordance with the programme. Weatherly expects to have sufficient quantities of concentrate to commence transport to Walvis Bay in March with the first revenues to be realised from concentrate sales shortly thereafter." This remains a very promising share with Copper prices at all time highs and production ramping up.

Sirius (SXX) and Angel (ANGM) - Nothing to report. Where is that gold shipment report Elias Jones?(Chief Exec. Angel) - what's all this talk you've been on holiday!!??

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