Trades and observations from a British contrarian stock investor

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Monday, March 7, 2011

Markets strong despite Libya

The FTSE 100 is having a good day, up 42 to 6,033. The Dow Jones industrials are up 57 to 12,223.

Citigroup today increased its 2011 forecast for US light crude to $105 per barrel from $90 and their 2012 forecast is for at least $100 a barrel. Libya has lost about 1 million barrels of production since the civil war broke out. Tanker rates have surged 18 fold since the beginning of March as oil refiners try to stock up on crude supplies in anticipation of further issues in North Africa and the Middle East.

Unfortunately we are as addicted to oil as we ever were, particularly in the U.S. where fuel efficiency is still not on the agenda of many American motorists. $100 a barrel oil may make consumers think differently about the way they use oil, and in the case of the USA its about time. With petrol now at £6 a gallon in the UK, we are already paying the price of rising oil but also bloated taxes on the fuel.

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