Trades and observations from a British contrarian stock investor

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Thursday, March 3, 2011

Previous post on ITV reminds me to have courage in your conviction

The 2 main holdings in my portfolio, Xcite Energy (xel) and Weatherly (wti) aren't exactly performing at the moment.

In fact, you can say that Xcite's performance has been dire. In the last 3 weeks the share price has dropped by nearly a pound, or 25%. From excessive optimism about a takeover, now there is excessive pessimism as we flirt with the 300p level. As i posted, earlier today, I really liked ITV back in January 2010, purely on a fundamentals. I bought at 58p, watched the shares go below 50p and then sold from boredom around 60p a couple of months later. The shares hit 93p yesterday! Yes you would have to hold a year to have this gain, but it does demonstrate that if you have done the research and bought for the right reasons, patience can be your friend.

I first bought Xcite Energy in November 2010, on the basis that it had an excellent prospect in the North Sea. Of course then it was risky, since Conoco had failed to make the field flow in the 1980's. In December, Xcite proved the oil could be flowed at a good rate. Risk removed, yet at 308p right now, we are not much higher than pre December. In Q4 the Rowan Norway rig arrives on the Bentley field, in early 2012 the company will be producing 15,000 barrels a day and the field is 100% owned by Xcite. I have been buying on this latest sell off, I'm sure patience will be rewarded.

As for Weatherly, its the same story. There's not been a great deal of movement on this AIM copper play (its the only one on AIM). Though production is gearing up nicely to over 4000 tonnes of copper in 2011 and Blackrock now 16% of the company, the shares are going no where fast. Stuck at 11-12.5p for weeks. However, on a fundamental basis this has to go higher, hence I am buying on any opportunity and it is now my no.2 holding.

In summary, my ITV experience has taught me again to stick with conviction contrarian buys. Buffett employs this with great success, when he likes a stock he buys more during periods of opportunity. He bought Coke when everyone else was selling during the Classic Coke disaster in the 1990's (when they launched a sweeter formula to rival Pepsi, but soon had to change back after a consumer backlash from loyalists of the original flavour). His dividend payment per share is now higher than the purchase price!

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