Portfolio review of the week 3rd April 2010

Falkland Island Oil Explorers  -Another bullish week on the markets was tempered by the collapse in the Falkland Island oil drillers on Monday as Desire Petroleum (DES) was forced to issue a premature news release on the progress of the Liz well following a report in the Sunday Times that reservoir quality was poor. Another update from Desire on Thursday afternoon indicated that drilling was continuing to greater depths after hydrocarbon shows with  final report due late next week. It seems that there is a significant amount of gas (yet to be confirmed) but oil seems to be elusive to date and given the geographical location and the current world gas price this is clearly not an advantageous position. Desire's share collapsed 50% on Monday to around 50p and have held steady for the rest of the week. Fortunately a holding in Desire was sold the previous week. Position's in Falklands Oil and Gas (FOGL) and Rockhopper (RKH) fell through stop losses on Monday as sentiment turned against the explorers. However, having stabilised later in the day I bought back both as the geological structures are unrelated to Desire's prospect and Rockhopper' s well is due to be drilled next by the Ocean Guardian rig with spudding in early April.

GW Pharma (GWP) - GW Pharma continues to drift downwards following the positive news on Sativex a couple of weeks ago. Things are expected to be quiet until May onwards when an update on national approval from the UK and Spanish regulatory authorities would be expected. The interims are also in May and news on other regional licensing deals outside North America and Europe would be expected as well as the U.S. FDA cancer pain application wit Otsuka Corp.. I sold around 2/3 of my holding on the news and bought back some at 115p. I am monitoring this share closely for a further buying opportunities on a slide back below 110p because May and June news should drive this to well over 130p.

Norseman Gold (NGL) - A position was started in this Australian gold company on Monday. See the previous article, http://contrarianinvestoruk.blogspot.com/2010/03/norseman-gold-looks-solid-australian.html.

Coal of Africa (CZA) - The Coal of Africa position was increased this week as Morgan Stanley increased their share target to 200p  (current 145p) and a full UK market listing is due.

BHP Billiton (BLT) - A contrarian short on BHP Billiton was placed on Thursday morning following a week of strong rises as the rise in commodity stocks seems overcooked.

Genzyme (GENZ) - The position was closed on the rebound to $53.

Micron (MU) - Short term trades at just over $10.2 were made and closed before the quarterly earnings at $10.8

Portfolio review of the week March 27th 2010

The bulls seem unstoppable at the moment with solid gains around the world's stock markets for another week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, ended up 9 points at 10,850 after being as high as 68 points higher. The index was up 1% for the week.  The Dow Industrials, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite all ended with a fourth week of  gains, the longest positive run for all three indexes since the summer of 2009. The FTSE 100 finished down 24 points at 5,703. The index was up 53 points, or nearly 1% for the week.

The market responded positively to the  news that the Euro zone countries had agreed a plan to bail out Greece together with the International Monetary Fund, driving the euro to a 10 month high against the dollar. On Friday afternoon, debt rating agency, Standard & Poor, confirmed it's rating on Greece.

Gw Pharma (GWP -  After last week's strong gains in GW Pharma on a positive regulatory update on Saticex and good trials results for the future U.S. application in cancer pain, the share price has dropped strongly from it's highs close to 130p to finish the week at 113p. This fall came despite Prudential increasing their holding from 10% to 12%. After selling down 3/4 of my holding close to the highs,  Contrarian Investor UK bought back at lower levels. News on the completion of the national phase of the UK and Spanish applications should be available around the time of the May interims so it's a case of sitting tight for now and waiting for further news flow.  Licensing deals in territories outside North America and Europe should also be announced in Q2.

Falkland Island Oil Explorers (Desire Petroleum, Falklands Oil and Gas, Borders and Southern Petroleum, Rockhopper Exploration) - As discussed on a previous post, I have sold my Desire Petroleum (DES) holding and moved into RockHopper Exploration (RKH) and increased my holding in Falkland Oil and Gas (FOGL) in order to be able to use IG Markets CFD guaranteed stops in case things don't go quite to plan next week. Protected trades, limiting any loss to 12.5%, were not possible on Desire for some time. News from the South Atlantic should be due Wednesday onwards on drilling of Desire's Liz field (but perhaps earlier but all conjecture). But it now seems plausible that Desire are testing the well because as a reminder the addendum to the Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) issued in December 2009 stated (http://www.desireplc.co.uk/pdfs/DesireFalklands_EIS_Adndm.pdf), "It is anticipated that the Ocean Guardian semi-submersible rig will be on location for between 18 and 30 days for each we and an additional 7-10 days if the well is tested. The earliest spud date for the first well is 1 February 2010. It is currently proposed to test the wells if hydrocarbons are found. During the well test up to up to 8,000stb/d of oil or 25MMscf/d of gas will be flared dependent on the reservoir fluids encountered and if the reservoir is found to be capable of delivering these rates...". Given it will be 35 days since the Liz prospect "spudded" on Monday (spud was 22nd February 2010), it is possible that Desire are testing the well and they would not be testing if there was nothing substantial in terms of an oil/gas find. On the other hand, drilling to target depth might have been delayed by unforeseen events, which of course is always possible in offshore drilling campaigns. Should be an exciting week either way - keeping my fingers crossed it's not a "duster". 

ITV (ITV) - After a near 10% move upwards this week from 55p to 60p, I took the opportunity to sell off the position. There has been a significant shift upwards from the 50p level in february as Crozier/Norman have taken charge and the advertising market continues to improve.

Coal of Africa (CZA) - A steady move up in CZA to finish the week at 146p as main market listing in the UK is due in the next few weeks. After a wobble, where the share price dropped as much as 7p on rumours that the Vele mine project approval might be compromised by enviromental protestors, the stock recovered to finish broadly flat. Contrarian Investor UK is expecting a move up closer to 200p during Q2. 

ARM (ARM) - Chip designer ARM holdings continued to move up to a 52 week high as tech stocks stay in demand which has squeezed the short. However, the 5% stop loss on the sell has not yet been triggered and on anticipation of a market correction this position may come back in my favour. Holding for now.

SSL International (SSL) - After a positive trading update yesterday (see previous post), SSL moved over the £8 level and triggered a stop loss on the short. This illustrates the problem with shorting shares in this short of market where momentum investors are piling in. With this sort of market, fundamental analysis of a company's value can be for nothing. 

Genzyme (GENZ) -  Pharmaceutical company Genzyme  dropped over 14% in 2 days on concerns over an FDA sanction of a key plans. An initial position was stopped out but I bought back on Thursday night as the stock hit $51. This buy was rewarded with a bounce back on Friday as brokers started saying the FDA related fall had been overdone. Shareholder activist, Carl Icahn remains key to a rejuvenation of this company.

Genzyme position reinitiated

After falling another 7% yesterday, a position was reinitiated at the close at just over $51 in Genzyme (GENZ).  A broker upgrade today following the heavy falls, has sent the stock up 3.5% to just shy of $53.

Genzyme falls through stop loss

A tight stop loss on Genzyme (GENZ) at 5% was triggered at the open as the company suffered broker down grades on yesterday's FDA news. The stock is currently down 6.5% at $51.7. 

New position in Genzyme on FDA problems

Contrarian Investor UK started a new position in biotech company, Genzyme Corp. (GENZ) after a 6% decline yesterday. The stock fell back after the U.S. FDA (Food and Drug Administration) took action at its Allston production plant to make sure products are made within the required specification, following a series of manufacturing problems dating back to 2008. The FDA will issue a consent decree, which means additional plant testing at extra cost until further notice and will affect its top two selling drugs, Gaucher's disease treatment Cerezyme and Fabry disease drug Fabrazyme. A consent decree may take several years to resolve. Genzyme said the likely consent decree would have a third party inspect and review the plant's operations for "an extended period" to ensure compliance but sales of products made there would not be interrupted. The move would require Genzyme to "make payments to the government and could incur other costs."

But the reason for the purchase is simple. In February, activist Carl Icahn, announced he had nominated four directors to Genzyme's board, including himself, for election at a May 20 shareholder meeting. Icahn Capital LP more than doubled its Genzyme stake to 4.8 million shares from 1.5 million shares during the fourth quarter of 2009. The FDA action may help Icahn gain control of the board and push for a sale of the business.

At $55 (52 week range $47-63), GENZ has market cap of close to $15 billion and a high historical p/e of 35. Analysts were expecting earnings of $2.88 for 2010 but this is certain to be revised down. Assuming earnings of $2.5 per share, this puts the company on a forward p/e of 22 which is not outrageous given Icahn's action to oust the board. Options traders were buying the June calls at $60 heavily last night, indicating that some investors are confident of a bounce back to over $60 in the next few weeks. Though competition is increasing for Genzyme's key drugs, it may be a good takeover candidate for a larger pharmaceutical company looking to establish a presence in the specialist medicine sector. Though the company may fall further, the downside from the FDA action should not be more or less priced in and therefore from a contrarian point of view this stock ticks the right boxes.