Trades and observations from a British contrarian stock investor

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Wednesday, February 23, 2011

Oil price continues to rise on fears of Africa and middle east contagion

The FTSE 100 is currently down 58 points to 5,929 and the Dow Jones Industrials is down 42 to 12,175 as investors finally start worrying about rising oil prices and its potential impact on economic growth. Brent crude oil is up $3.8 to $109 a barrel.

The closure of oil production and refining in Libya has sent oil prices up to levels not seen for 2.5 years. As Civil war seems a distinct possibility in Libya, with Gaddafi's refusal to step down from power, the reassuring words from OPEC that they can increase supply has done little to reassure oil traders. Talk that Gaddafi may deliberately sabotage Libya's oil field's before he is forced from power as a final act of the "mad dog" hasn't helped sentiment. Troops disloyal to Gaddafi have taken second city Benghazi.

Safe haven's continue to be the flavour of the week with U.S. treasury bonds and gold rising (gold hit $1409 an ounce today) as fear begins to infect investors after weeks of euphoria. Riskier assets like AIM stocks are continuing to be sold off.

Finally, an opportunity to buy stocks for better value after weeks of rises meant there were little cheap targets to be had. This volatility will continue for the foreseeable future until the situation in Africa and the Middle East becomes clearer."Be greedy when others are fearful"!

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