Trades and observations from a British contrarian stock investor

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Wednesday, February 23, 2011

Still hanging on there in Sirius Minerals but surely time for turn

It feels like Sirius Minerals has been falling for ever, with the share price hitting just over 13p today. In mid-January all seemed to well with the price moving over 21p, following news of the York Potash acquisition. Every was celebrating what a great company Sirius was and how the potash price was going into orbit , now  "doom and gloom" pervades the bulletin boards. Investors are fearing a return to the days of 2p, which wasn't that far away in 2010. The board seem to be desperately trying to hold up the share price with the odd RNS, but short term holders aren't convinced and the price drifts ever lower. The market makers are happy to move the price down to try and attract some buyers, but if nothing else they attract some sellers as stop losses are breached, confidence collapses, fear grips the heart of private investors etc. etc.

I am well down on Sirius on my remaining positions after making some money back in January. I am a believer that the Sirius story is genuine and not some sort of smokescreen to "screw" the stupid private investor. The company has built a good collection of potash assets around the world and Dakota and NE England give plenty of hope for the future. Yes it is disappointing that a deal with the Chinese may not materialise in Australia but that is not a reason for Sirius to move back to 2p. I am holding despite the ugly red mark on my account and trust the board to deliver on the "potash dream" over the next 18 months. SXX is not a 1 month story, it will play out over the next 12 months. Investors must have patience and forget the doom mongers on the bulletin boards. Of course I may be wrong, and we  will again head sub 10p, but my bet is once the African/Middle East crisis is over, we are more likely to see 20p than 2p!

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